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RichB

Cml Figures And Salary Multiples.

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Sorry if this is a repetition of previously raised topics.

http://www.cml.org.uk/cml/statistics - Document ML2

http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nugget.asp?id=285

FTB salary multiple is averaging over 3 up from 2.5 or so in 2000. Therefore housing is still affordable. What people seem to gloss over is that in that time the average salary of the ftb has risen from 22k to 30k. In the same time the average advance has all but DOUBLED from around 50k to 100k.

Given the 3-4% wage inflation that gets bandied around, the average ftb should (if it were the same demographic) have salaries of around 25k. Instead they are 28% higher than wage inflation suggests.

If we look at the Jun figures we see the advances at 110k and the salaries at 34k. So given last years median national salary was 22.9k Allowing for 5% wage growth between now and then we get a very generous median of 24k. This indicates that the AVERAGE ftb earns in excess of 40% more than the national median wage.

I was going somewhere with this, but apparently I have to take the wife shopping for tat.

:P

Anyway, theres the bones of something to think about a bit.

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median = all the salaries from bottom to top, from minimum wage to super rich..

with the median average being the one in the middle.

provides a very different reading to a mean average!

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median = all the salaries from bottom to top, from minimum wage to super rich..

with the median average being the one in the middle.

provides a very different reading to a mean average!

Indeed, but as all figures quoted are medians I don't really see your point. Walk down the road and pick a bloke the chances are more likely that he'll earn the median than the mean. Seems well suited to the purpose.

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Hows this for an answer.

In my day the FTB'er came in the form of two lovestruck people, most likely in a trade, in their very early 20's, fed up with being caught w4nking at their parents, or sh4gging the GF on the Sofa.

The profile of todays FTB'er is very much different, proffessional, high salary, high climber, and over 30 at least!!!.

And much fewer in numbers, BTL, second home purchasers, I would suspect outnumber FTB'ers in mortgage advances.

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This all interests me as I recently got a tasty pay rise (to inexcess of 2x median) ... but as you say, do I want to be buying a grotty flat for 4-5x this salary?

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Doesn't the CML consider anyone buying a FTB if they haven't owned a home in the last six months?

So the average FTB salary (and multiple) includes Mr and Mrs Thomas on a £100k who sold to move, but didn't want to be stuck in a chain so rented for a small period.

Also, what about self cert and income non verified, where they lie to buy? Are these fradulent figures included too?

I very much doubt the median income of a FTB is £34k.

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yep - the affordability argument conveniently bypasses the fact that people are paying twice as much for the same house as they would have done 5 years ago

anything is affordable if you repay over long enough - however, the longer you repay over the more it becomes 'renting' and why rent at the buying price when you can rent at the rental price (clear as mud)

Edited by the end is nigh

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yep - the affordability argument conveniently bypasses the fact that people are paying twice as much for the same house as they would have done 5 years ago

anything is affordable if you repay over long enough - however, the longer you repay over the more it becomes 'renting' and why rent at the buying price when you can rent at the rental price (clear as mud)

This affordability lark bugs me too.

Affordable doesn't mean good value for money, certainly not. But this is the impression that most lay people have.

A roll of toilet paper at £500 would be affordable for most of us, but certainly not good value for money.

acc_toilet_paper_holder.jpg

:angry:

:angry:

post-2052-1155428397_thumb.jpg

Edited by werewolves

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FTBers salaries are rising faster than average because FTBers are getting older.

Eventually FTBers will be buying grotty little 2 bed flats at their peak earning level.

Ah, those'll be their retirement homes.

:ph34r: :angry: :ph34r:

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median = all the salaries from bottom to top, from minimum wage to super rich..

with the median average being the one in the middle.

provides a very different reading to a mean average!

This is a very key point. cml numbers look very manufactured. Why on earth are they using median's, gotta be because they want to hide something. Also this number on the end "Median Interest Payments as a percent of income" appear to point to no HPC - but they are ******** on 3 fronts:

Median should be Mean -

Interest Payments should be Morgage Repayments

Income should not be applicatns fudged median wages but national mean wages .

Now I wonder what that graph would look like !?

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Surely it should come as no suprise that first time buyer salaries are so high. The current FTB is the one who can afford it (and the amazingly blinkered self cert). The thing is in a more sensible market the people on an above average salary would be buying an above average house.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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