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renter1

Why Is It Just Around The Corner Now?

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People on this site (myself included) have been saying watch this space this year in 04 and 05, or, its just around the corner etc etc

I have noticed an few posts saying, by the end of next year, in the next couple of menths, by the end of the year........

Are people more certain now and if so why? Why is 06/07 so different? How confident are you?

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i personally don't assertions about wether the housing market will continue as it is or that it will crash. I just know that i won't buy in this climate or whilst house prices are still so high. I guess i would like house prices to reduce, but wether that ever happens...i have no idea!

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I'm very confident.

The only thing driving the market since the start of the year is sentiment. After the rate rise, that the masses didn't expect, I see sentiment slowly turning. And with another on the way....

HPI -> HPS -> HPD -> HPC

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If you keep making predictions, and you keep being wrong, you have to rethink your assumptions, otherwise you are a fool.

If the market hasn't crashed yet, and nothing major has changed, then why should it start to crash now?

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If you keep making predictions, and you keep being wrong, you have to rethink your assumptions, otherwise you are a fool.

If the market hasn't crashed yet, and nothing major has changed, then why should it start to crash now?

indeed....if the market hasn't crashed yet it probably never will.

:blink:

fool

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If the market hasn't crashed yet, and nothing major has changed, then why should it start to crash now?

The end of credit expansion and the start of credit tightening.

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There is more hope than previously because for the first time since 1997 the B of E Committee has lost control of the CPI.The chimps on the Committee,Mervyn excepted,saw to this by reducing IR in August 05 in an attempt to save the housing market;only to create a boom and credit fest.Interest rates will now have to rise steeper than would otherwise be the case.

Not only has the B of E lost its reputation but so have certain journalists who did not see the inflation coming,David Smith,Times in particular.Sack the f***ing lot of them.

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indeed....if the market hasn't crashed yet it probably never will.

:blink:

fool

I knew the response would be a knee-jerk "no crash yet = no crash ever" jibe.

I did NOT say that just because we haven't had a crash yet, we will never have one. What I am saying is that the market will not implode of its own accord (as has been predicted on here countless times) - it needs some sort of trigger. Otherwise similar economic conditions will result in a similar conditions in the housing market.

BUt hey, carry on predicting that the crash is about to begin, if it makes you feel better. Or be like Realist Bear, and keep trying to prove that it is already happening.

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If you keep making predictions, and you keep being wrong, you have to rethink your assumptions, otherwise you are a fool.

If the market hasn't crashed yet, and nothing major has changed, then why should it start to crash now?

Just because the prediction hasn't come right yet doesn't mean it won't.

I imagine most people on this board have been surprised by the duration of this house price bubble (and I wouldn't be surprised if the VIs aren't actually surprised in private too) but it still doesn't mean a crash won't happen. When you inflate a balloon, it goes up easy at first and then gets a bit harder and then you reach the point where you know that if you just keep inflating and inflating it's going to burst. You never think it can inflate endlessly......

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You never think it can inflate endlessly......

It hasn't happened yet, therefore it might not happen. :rolleyes:

It's different this time.

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It hasn't happened yet, therefore it might not happen. :rolleyes:

It's different this time.

Whereas your logic is:

It hasn't happened yet... therefore it has to happen.

It's going to be exactly the same this time as it was last time.

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i personally don't assertions about wether the housing market will continue as it is or that it will crash. I just know that i won't buy in this climate or whilst house prices are still so high. I guess i would like house prices to reduce, but wether that ever happens...i have no idea!

Rachel The Martyr, you really should learn how to spell.

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I've never put a time on when a 'crash' would happen but I have to say I never knew just how things would go from bad to worse.

1. Reckless politically motivated interest cuts. When the raised rates in '04 HPI was FINALLY checked and there were some really pleasant falls around. Nothing was selling and asking prices had to be lower. Then, crazily, they cut rates again to boost already dreadful consumer borrowing levels.

2. Utterly unchecked off-the-scale lending. After seeing so many people strangled by debt around me (and that's going back a few years now) and the casualties growing in the media by the thousand I felt sure a credit crunch would have occured. Instead, bad debts seem to mean nothing to over-zealous bankers with their sickening profit levels. It's like a football team not caring that they let in two goals because they know for sure they'll score three.

3. Immigration. Now everyone knows I'm one of the few 'left-wingers' on a site dominated by various shades of 'the right'. I have zero problem with people's ethnicity or national origins. It seems stupid to respect a ******* because they share your nationality and hold a grudge against someone thoroughly decent who happens to have parents who came from from overseas.

But since the NuEU expansion, adding to an already incredibly lax immigration system, there has been a VAST influx of new people. This means vast pressure on the rental market even as the economy worsens as slumlord buy up houses to turn into bedsits. Now, when the economy dies, much of this immigration may be reversed but it's still elongated the boom - and supported the rachman end of the BTL spectrum.

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If the market hasn't crashed yet, and nothing major has changed, then why should it start to crash now?

I kind of see why you would say this if things balanced out, i.e. if unemployment/employment was static or debt growth was inline with earnings (etc etc). If things balanced out, it would be argued things are sustainable, and if they are sustained a very good argument can be made that a crash won't happen.

But the reality is everyday that goes past something has changed. What's changed is the average person has more debt in relation to their income.

Fill in all the other factors... public debt increasing (hence tax), debt servicing costs, trade deficits, employment yadda yadda yadda and it can easily be seen that things are not sustainable.

I believe some very intelligent economists somewhere have done extensive research, and concluded that if something isn't sustainable it won't be sustained. I can't find a link to this research at present, but if anyone has heard of this rumour research, say AYE.

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Cheap credit has kept this going. I called it early and couldnt understand how it could be sustained, until l understood the massive credit injection that has been going on since 2000.

Now l am simply agog at just how bad its going to get, whereas before l simply thought it would be part of a gentle cycle.

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Cheap credit has kept this going. I called it early and couldnt understand how it could be sustained, until l understood the massive credit injection that has been going on since 2000.

Now l am simply agog at just how bad its going to get, whereas before l simply thought it would be part of a gentle cycle.

We also have to remember that we are now a Global economy and the actions of other Countries has big impacts on us, more so than at any time in the past.

Global money supply is huge and I don't think that the UK on it's own is going to cause its own HPC. It will be a chain of events that needs to start with the USA.

Its not going to happen quickly thats for sure, as the major World banks/economies will do 'anything' to try and stop any form global recession taking hold.

AFP

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The end of credit expansion and the start of credit tightening.

Yes, this is one possibly the most important factor. There has been sooo much spare investment capital (mainly far eastern) floating around at such unbelievably cheap rates the banks have been aggressively pushing as much as the can on as many people they can at very, very, profitable levels. I was so surprised the banks had not made even more money over the last 2 years.

Although there are slight increases in defaulters as most of the loans are off set against assets, mainly houses, and in general most repossessions would be in possitive equity territory, the banks really cant lose. They will be milking this highly profitable enterprise for as long as these massive rewards are available.

So you will still be finding those aggresively marketed sales calls "are you a home owner? then we can provide you with money now for any purpose...." for some time to come.

It will not be the defaulters that will slow down this easy credit, even at much higher levels, but the banks access to "cheap" money.

The BOJ are likely to take some time to raise their rates to high enough levels and to repatriate most of the spare global capacity so lets not hold our breath.

The next, and biggest ever British and global property crash will be the fault of the Japanese, mainly because they dropped their rates to inflate THEIR (not our) economy because of the 2nd biggest crash of all time reference mid 1990s Japanese property market. (currently the biggest)

I can see some irony there somewhere.

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I doubt there ever will be crash i say as i said on other posts, property will probably be worth the same in 2008 i doubt house prices will move only around 1% or so. I think the lower end will only see the slightest of rises by the rate of stamp duty moving to 125k

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Even if unaware, these posts are like government plants.

Property will be 50% less. In real terms

So what?

So, you don't earn £31,000, just £15,500 with all your apirations halved. Not important at all.

More key though to BTL for example is the historical upward trend in values - ie. what the values will be in say 10 - 20 years time

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Even if unaware, these posts are like government plants.

Property will be 50% less. In real terms

So what?

So, you don't earn £31,000, just £15,500 with all your apirations halved. Not important at all.

The difference is that mortgages are debt contracts based on nominal prices.

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Guest Alright Jack

But the reality is everyday that goes past something has changed. What's changed is the average person has more debt in relation to their income.

I read this and then had this picture of a child blowing up a ballon waaaay to far and its squeaking and bulging and you just know what's going to happen. But all you can do is cringe!

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People on this site (myself included) have been saying watch this space this year in 04 and 05, or, its just around the corner etc etc

I have noticed an few posts saying, by the end of next year, in the next couple of menths, by the end of the year........

Are people more certain now and if so why? Why is 06/07 so different? How confident are you?

Emm,

You seem to think if you blink you might miss it

I predict the "crash" will be looked at historically as 04, 05, 06, 07, 08, 09, 10, 11, and a tentative recovery possibly starting 12

Feb, March, April and May 06 will be seen as the "suckers rally" (dead cat bounce)

It will be slowed down by many reasons including a number of "Bears" (think they are Bears but are in fact Bulls) who will buy in 07, 08, and 09 some just before some of the bigger falls. Just read back on so many threads people say they will buy in 09 if prices drop 20% even if they are still falling!! and others who say they will buy in 08!!! and some in 07 :lol: no only joking, no ones that daft... are they? Im going to read back.

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Emm,

You seem to think if you blink you might miss it

I predict the "crash" will be looked at historically as 04, 05, 06, 07, 08, 09, 10, 11, and a tentative recovery possibly starting 12

Feb, March, April and May 06 will be seen as the "suckers rally" (dead cat bounce)

It will be slowed down by many reasons including a number of "Bears" (think they are Bears but are in fact Bulls) who will buy in 07, 08, and 09 some just before some of the bigger falls. Just read back on so many threads people say they will buy in 09 if prices drop 20% even if they are still falling!! and others who say they will buy in 08!!! and some in 07 :lol: no only joking, no ones that daft... are they? Im going to read back.

I think if a slight drop in house prices occured buyers would come in so say a 1% decline as what happened in some area's last winter. Buyers started buying again bringing prices back up to where they were. In my area (Gloucester) prices of a terrace house were selling at £105,000 last summer there is one on the market opposite my house today at £125,000. I cant see how the years you quote 04,05,06 in perticular could be regarded as a crash.

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I cant see how the years you quote 04,05,06 in perticular could be regarded as a crash.

No way can they be regarded as a crash. In some areas, maybe stagnation or soft landing. But crash - no way.

To call 04 and 05 a crash is to make the word lose all meaning.

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  • 302 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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