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Jason

Ft Hpi July Index - +5.4% Yoy, +0.2% Mom

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http://www.ft.com/cms/s/e361cc54-2885-11db...00779e2340.html

A buoyant London market helped push annual house price inflation to 5.4 per cent in July, according to the FT house price index.
Residential property prices in the capital rose by 9.9 per cent in the 12 months to June, far outstripping the next best performing region, the north, which recorded an increase of 5.9 per cent.
However, the data, compiled by consultancy Acadametrics, shows the market as a whole may have started to cool of late. There was no month-on-month change in prices in May and June and only a 0.2 per cent increase in July.
Gary Styles, economics director at Acadametrics, said: "Monthly house price growth has eased significantly in the last 3 months as concerns about indebtedness, interest rates and bankruptcies have affected confidence. However the London market has shown only tentative signs of slowing in the face of this negative sentiment."
Edited by Jason

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I think it says a lot about the way this site is going that threads about conspiracy theories, immigration and Justin Timberlake all attract dozens of comments but some interesting and rigorous statistics about HPI don't get a single comment... :ph34r:

The London/rest of the UK divide certainly looks very strong in this data. I suspect that if London slows soon that will drag the annual average down quite sharply as nowhere else seems to be rising at anywhere near the same rate.

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Friday August 11, 10:48 AM

http://uk.biz.yahoo.com/11082006/94/london...e-set-pace.html

London house prices continue to set pace

A buoyant London market helped push annual house price inflation to 5.4 per cent in July, according to the FT house price index.
Residential property prices in the capital rose by 9.9 per cent in the 12 months to June, far outstripping the next best performing region, the north, which recorded an increase of 5.9 per cent.
However, the data, compiled by consultancy Acadametrics, shows the market as a whole may have started to cool of late.
There was no month-on-month change in prices in May and June and only a 0.2 per cent increase in July.
Gary Styles, economics director at Acadametrics, said: “Monthly house price growth has eased significantly in the last 3 months as concerns about i
ndebtedness, interest rates and bankruptcies have affected confidence.
However the London market has shown only tentative signs of slowing in the face of this negative sentiment.” The rise in annual house price inflation for June was revised down from 5.6 to 5.2.
Apart from a spike up to 5.5 per cent in May, the index has displayed a steady rise since the shallow growth of 3.3 per cent recorded in November.
The housing market has been more robust in the first half of the year than many commentators expected, prompting lenders such as the Nationwide and Halifax recently to increase their forecasts for price growth in 2006 from about 3 per cent to 5 per cent.

A little more bearish than usual. :)

The Daily Excess headline for tomorrow might be "Pain for Homeowners as prices plunge from 5.6 to 5.2%"

Edited by Realistbear

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I think it says a lot about the way this site is going that threads about conspiracy theories, immigration and Justin Timberlake all attract dozens of comments but some interesting and rigorous statistics about HPI don't get a single comment... :ph34r:

The London/rest of the UK divide certainly looks very strong in this data. I suspect that if London slows soon that will drag the annual average down quite sharply as nowhere else seems to be rising at anywhere near the same rate.

Don't tell me - you didn't think his new album was all that?

I agree, this is good news after the somewhat depressing LR results. I think London could bouy up the average for sometime yet. Will be very interesting to see how the next couple of months progress with the rate rise(s?).

Does go to show that the average is indeed an anomaly and not indicative of the market state as a whole

Edited by Bubble Mixture

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Don't tell me - you didn't think his new album was all that?

I agree, this is good news after the somewhat depressing LR results. I think London could bouy up the average for sometime yet. Will be very interesting to see how the next couple of months progress with the rate rise(s?).

Thankfully I haven't heard it... :lol:

Yes, the contrast between these figures and the LR numbers are striking. These certainly paint a far less rosy picture of the market outsode of London. Not sure the rate rises will have much impact for quite a while yet though, nor do I expect more than another 0.25% rise in the next few months unless the situation in the M.E. deteriorates further.

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A significant proportion of transactions remain large and expensive properties in the south of England, for which there is currently strong demand. The FT house price index adjusts for the fact that a greater than usual proportion of properties sold are expensive;

This backs up what some people were saying on the Land Registry thread.

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Residential property prices in the capital rose by 9.9 per cent in the 12 months to June, far outstripping the next best performing region, the north, which recorded an increase of 5.9 per cent.

I'm a little confused. Having read this board, I was under the impression that the crash was well underway and that, indeed, 2004, was the market peak; and yet here we see that residential property in London has increase 9.9 per cent YoY. Any of the perma-bears care to explain? <_<

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I'm a little confused. Having read this board, I was under the impression that the crash was well underway and that, indeed, 2004, was the market peak; and yet here we see that residential property in London has increase 9.9 per cent YoY. Any of the perma-bears care to explain? <_<

I am a temporary bear* and tend to follow the old "buy low-sell high" plan. Bull when the time is right and now is an awful time to buy but a good time to sell-if you can. Anyway, the features of the latest report above that were pleasant reading for Bears is cut and pasted as follows:

http://uk.biz.yahoo.com/11082006/94/london...e-set-pace.html

However, the data, compiled by consultancy Acadametrics, shows the market as a whole may have started to cool of late.
There was no month-on-month change in prices in May and June and only a 0.2 per cent increase in July.
Gary Styles, economics director at Acadametrics, said: “Monthly house price growth has eased significantly in the last 3 months as concerns about indebtedness, interest rates and bankruptcies have affected confidence.

___________________

I was last a Bull in 1996 when I bought our last house in Coastal California. After it went up 125% I went Bearish and sold. Now waiting to get back in over here after Gordon's Miracle Economy is a distant nightmare.

Edited by Realistbear

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I'm a little confused. Having read this board, I was under the impression that the crash was well underway and that, indeed, 2004, was the market peak; and yet here we see that residential property in London has increase 9.9 per cent YoY. Any of the perma-bears care to explain? <_<

you need to be a blind to not see the truth for yourself. Crash was underway in late 2004 and early 2005 until the mischievious and illconcieved rate cut of aug 05 came in, which Merv himself accepted as a mistake. I am quite convinced that with the last IR hike and a few other in pipeline gains made in last twelve months will be wiped off soon.

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you need to be a blind to not see the truth for yourself. Crash was underway in late 2004 and early 2005 until the mischievious and illconcieved rate cut of aug 05 came in, which Merv himself accepted as a mistake. I am quite convinced that with the last IR hike and a few other in pipeline gains made in last twelve months will be wiped off soon.

I have a feeling we will be having a remarkably similar conversation 12 months from now...

Edited by Europa

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In the BoE inflation report the other day, Merv the swerve was asked in retrospect was lowering rates last August a good move.

With which he answered "we don't look back"

WHAT!

what sort of answer is that?

I must try that one.

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In the BoE inflation report the other day, Merv the swerve was asked in retrospect was lowering rates last August a good move.

With which he answered "we don't look back"

WHAT!

what sort of answer is that?

I must try that one.

That did make me laugh too - especially as he has teams of economists and statisticians analysing the effect of previous interest rate movements on the economy to try and improve future decisions!

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That did make me laugh too - especially as he has teams of economists and statisticians analysing the effect of previous interest rate movements on the economy to try and improve future decisions!

Oh everything is just fine :rolleyes:

Press release Home.co.uk : 11 Aug 2006

"Bad news for sellers perhaps, but the changing nature of the market offers a glimmer of hope to aspirant first time buyers. For several years now, many thousands have been unable to get on the first rung of the property ladder and could only look on as prices soared out of reach. Finally the tide is turning, albeit slowly, as house prices in most regions are now moving in the right direction for those that represent the 'life-blood' of the market, nominally and in real terms. "

"Indeed, asking price inflation, in the formerly strong northern regions, is entering negative territory. The report from Home.co.uk reveals that, over the past six months, asking prices in the North, North West and Yorkshire & Humber were hit by falls of 2.8%, 1.9% and 2.1%, respectively. Greater London faired no better, registering a 2.7% drop over the same period. Even Scottish asking prices are under pressure, registering the first significant drop (3.4%) in the last eighteen months, suggesting the long run of rising house prices has peaked north of the border.

"Perhaps the most alarming news, from Home.co.uk, is that asking prices have fallen even further behind the rate of inflation. In real terms, asking prices are going backwards at an annual rate of 4.7% relative to the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Historically, periods of high inflation spell disaster for house prices, since the main weapon in inflation fire fighting is interest rate rises"

"On August 3rd we saw the Bank of England take its first step towards combating inflation, with a hike of 0.25%, raising the base rate to 4.75%. The CPI figure currently stands at 2.5%, which is 0.5% above the Bank's target. Such a small rate rise, on its own, is unlikely to contain the strong inflationary pressures of rising energy costs and excess money supply. Therefore, a further rise appears likely later in the year."

Edited by Buffer Bear

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The reason for the confusion as to when the peak occurred or if indeed it has is because certain areas such as the East Midlands have witnessed a crash where as others such as London are in boom.Do not rely on LR figures they do not allow for the fact that only the best in each category are selling.

Fairclough Homes,Beeston,Nottingham.

Price List 1/7/05 7/8/06

Appartment 1 165k 135k

3 165k 135k

4 167.5k 136k

6 167.5k 136k

7 170k 137k

8 155k 132k

44 152.5k 133k

47 155k 140k

aggregate 1297.5k 1084k (fall of 16.5%)

During this Summer I have negotiated discounts on second hand property at 80% asking price,but not proceeded because my bearish feelings have won the day.

Certain bulls on this site ,posing as impartial observers,Casual Observer to name one;should stop rubbishing crash claims in parts of the country where a crash has happened.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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