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Cpi To Be At Least 2.8% In July...

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Looking back at he numbers used in inflation calculations July's figures are going to be mighty interesting.

Without some drastic masaging of current figures Clothing along will add 0.3% to the headline figure unless we see another 5% drop from the figure used to calcualte June 2006. In fact, July could even be the first time in such a long time where inflation on clothing could be positive. The June 06 value was 96.4. July's needs to be 91.9 (4.7% less than June) to have zero impact on the current CPI headline figure. Like I said a value of around 97 will see 0.3% added.

Electricity and Gas look likely to add 0.1% to the headline figure each, along with fruit & veg (0.1%) as I don't believe we have seen the price drops we saw in summer last year. Air Travel will have a negative impact of -0.1% along with Photographic Equipment chipping in as usual with -0.1%. All other categories will have a net effect of +0.1%

To summarize:

June CPI = 2.5%

Clothing +0.3%

Electricity +0.1%

Gas +0.1%

Fruit & Veg +0.1%

Air Travel -0.1%

Photographic Equipment -0.1%

Others +0.1%

This gives July CPI to be 3.1% but experience tells us the official figure won't be this high so it'll be interesting after the event to see where the tenths of a percentage points were dropped.......

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

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