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Wednesday: Boe Inflation Report

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Traders, economists and house price crash message board hounds will be anxiously awaiting the BOE’s Quarterly Inflation Report for direction on policy tightening potential in the future.

Today the BRC Retail Sales saw July same store sales at 3.4%, higher than the anticipated 3.0%. The BRC report was consistent with impressive June retail sales figures, underpinning the Bank of England’s decision to unexpectedly hike rates last week to 4.75%.

If the BOE’s Quarterly Inflation Report is bullish, look for the pound to start its run to $2 and for suggestions of a second rate hike before christmas.

Good Luck.

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Huh?

These figures are a bit of a joke....

If they want to keep inflation rising and hide it they will 'adjust' the calculation/boundries

If the want to surpress inflation and raise IR they will 'adjust' the calculation/boundries

Edited by dnd

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9:30am. It will appear here: http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publication...rt/irlatest.htm

Edit: Obviously not 9:30am then.

FTSE gone vertical in the last few minutes

FTSE 100 (FSI:^FTSE) Edit

Index Value: 5,787.40

Trade Time: 9:43AM

Change: Down 30.70 (0.53%)

Prev Close: 5,818.10

Open: 5,818.10

Day's Range: 5,786.00 - 5,833.60

52wk Range: 5,130.90 - 6,137.10

If inflation is up the BoE have no choice but to hike again in September. :o HPI-- RIP

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Seems a web press conference is on the cards in 45 minutes...........

09.08.06 Inflation Report - August 2006

Live Press Conference Webcast 10.30am

Is this normal~?

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Seems a web press conference is on the cards in 45 minutes...........

09.08.06 Inflation Report - August 2006

Live Press Conference Webcast 10.30am

Is this normal~?

Seems not. Perhaps Gordon has to add some spin before divulging the awful truth so as to prevent a stock market meltdown? FTSE off .56% now.

Change: Down 36.50 (0.63%)

Edited by Realistbear

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If it is above 2.50% we might see a largish drop in the FTSE. It is already down .66% and makes you wonder if its just nervousness or if someone already has a heads up.

Sterling barely moved today: 1 U.K. £ =

1 1.9088

With our growing export imbalance any further rise in sterling may be seen as a negative for the stock market. We are between the old rock and the hard place again. Well done Gordon.

Edited by Realistbear

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If inflation is up again (which it probably will be) is there any chance the BOE will not raise rates in Sept? I mean will they say that this latest interest raise needs to filter through so putting rates up next month will be too early?

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If inflation is up again (which it probably will be) is there any chance the BOE will not raise rates in Sept? I mean will they say that this latest interest raise needs to filter through so putting rates up next month will be too early?

I think so

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If inflation is up again (which it probably will be) is there any chance the BOE will not raise rates in Sept? I mean will they say that this latest interest raise needs to filter through so putting rates up next month will be too early?

They also have the option of redefining 'inflation' or redefining inflation boundries...

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Bank of England Inflation report is not going to give you the latest CPI figure.

This comes from the ONS on 15th August.

I was under the impression it did?

The CPI figure is normally quoted after BOE report is it not?

But maybe I am wrong RPI @ around 3.7% ?

It is strange they do not deal with the CPI figure as the Governor of the BOE is supposively to write a letter to GB if it goes over 3%, but how can he do this if he does not know??......maybe he knows but does not tell us?????. Very strange indeed

I will be extra vigilant and try and find it

Edited by Flat Bear

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Merv is starting to speak. GDP down. Inflation 2.5% in June. Rising further in near term. Higher risk greater now. Rapidf growth of broad money. Household spending has revived. World econmy robust. Uk economy will rebalance. Consumer spending to drop somewhat. Exports to remain firm. GDP growth expected based on IR rising modestly the next 2 years.

Inflation risk for incomes and spending. CPI picking up. Gas and Electric impact. Central projection: CPI above 2% for awhile. Projection has inflation easing back after a rise in near term.

Profit margins are being squeezed. Subdued earning as a result of immigration.

Upward revision of output. Less capacity in economy.

Risk for inflation is broadly balanced. OUtlook is now more uncertain--due to energy prices, Middle Est problems. Main risk in medium term are spare capacity in economy and profit margins.

Inflation will remain for awhile--.25% hike last week was necessary for medium term. Remains ready to take action in the future.

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Guest Alright Jack

I had the misfortune of watching the last one. This one appears to be almost an exact copy. Once again the ask the same question about the number and timing of MPC meetings.

WHAT A BORE!!! zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

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In the Q & A Merv is saying no one knows about short and medium term inflation. Keeps talking about "risk."

Fuel, middle east look set to cause inevitable rises in inflation over the next 4 months.

Hasn't said yet what the rate of inflation is. They have sveral scenarios mapped out.

Bottom line seems to be much like Ben's predicament--we have no idea whats coming down the road but whatever it is its not good.

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http://investing.reuters.co.uk/news/articl...BRITAIN-BOE.xml

Another interest rate rise on the cards

Wed Aug 9, 2006 10:42 AM BST144

Email This Article | Print This Article | RSS

[-] Text [+]

LONDON (Reuters) - Interest rates will probably need to rise a little further in order to keep inflation on course to hit its 2.0 percent target, the Bank of England signalled on Wednesday.
In its quarterly Inflation Report published a week after it unexpectedly hiked rates a quarter-point to 4.75 percent, the central bank said its expected profile for growth and inflation over the next two years was higher than in May.
Most significantly, the CPI rate was expected to be well above the 2.0 percent target in two years if interest rates remained at their current level.
Even assuming that rates drifted higher as implied by the market yield curve before last week's surprise hike, inflation was still expected to be just above the target in two years after peaking around 2.7 percent in the coming months.
"After the initial near-term rise, the central projection is for inflation to ease back towards the target," the BoE said.
Risks to that forecasts were broadly balanced but the BoE said the uncertainty was much greater than usual.
Economic growth, meanwhile, was expected to run around its long-run average over the forecast period, a stronger profile than in the BoE's May report.

Bottom line seems to be: more IR hikes are coming.

Merv is saying FTBs are hurt by HPI not IR. He says "who knows" whats going to happen to house prices.

On sterling, Merv says he is focused on inflation being above target. Outlook for IR 2 years ahead is unprediactable. The exchnage rate is relatively stable overall. 1st half of the year manuf. up 1.5%, whereas before it hardly rose at all. Exchnage rate swings are damaging but we can't do anything about it. We can't guarnatee exchnage rates. Stable inflation is key.

Merv asked about insolvency rises. Won't comment on whether cut last year was prudent. 83% of debt is against housing. No sign of distress!! (repossessions not mentioned). Unsecured debt is serious for some. Unsecured debt is not a macro-problem. Its up to lenders and borrowers to sort it out. Rising problmes for housholders are not large enough to impact the economy. The BoE is not dealing with that problem.

Edited by Realistbear

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Woah. Check out the Beebs headline: Bank hints at further rate rises

Indeedy! Up up up................... :o

Bank hints at further rate rises
Bank of England building
The Bank has raised its forceasts for economic growth
The Bank of England has hinted that UK rates may have to rise further in coming months in order to keep inflation on target at 2%.
In its quarterly inflation report, the Bank said inflation could rise as high as 2.7% without a rate rise.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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