Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
Sign in to follow this  
tinecu

Brent Crude Reaches New High

Recommended Posts

Sounds like a bubble to me.

I've lived through three oil price bubbles and crashes.

It's an asset bubble like any other and fundamentals will cause the price to drop to it's long term average eventually.

Don't tell me: it's different this time.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Sounds like a bubble to me.

I've lived through three oil price bubbles and crashes.

It's an asset bubble like any other and fundamentals will cause the price to drop to it's long term average eventually.

Don't tell me: it's different this time.

It's either a bubble or inflation. I think the same can be said for the housing market.

Perhaps oil is 'worth' $80pb, perhaps the average house is 'worth' 200k. If that's the case we as a nation are experiencing one hell of a collective pay cut! :ph34r:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The BP shut down will no doubt help push oil up and profits also! Looks like BP knew or should have known that the break was due:

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/a828a3c6-2743-11db...00779e2340.html

BP employees issued early warning of Prudhoe corrosion
By Sheila McNulty in Houston
Published: August 9 2006 03:00 | Last updated: August 9 2006 03:00
BP's board and London-based
executives were informed of widespread corrosion at the UK oil giant's Alaska field two years before the company was forced to shut it down this week
, citing "unexpectedly severe corrosion".

The plot thickens as the drama shifts genre to a melodrama :D

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

BP,

If you liked that, check this out, need to read it in full to get the full gist..

http://baltimorechronicle.com/2006/080806PALAST.shtml

NEWS BACKGROUND & OPINION:

British Petroleum's "Smart Pig"

The Brilliantly Profitable Timing of the Alaska Oil Pipeline Shutdown

by GREG PALAST

The "pig" is an electronic drone that BP should have been using continuously, though they had not done so for 14 years.Tues., Aug. 9, 2006--Is the Alaska Pipeline corroded? You bet it is. Has been for more than a decade. Did British Petroleum shut the pipe yesterday to turn a quick buck on its negligence, to profit off the disaster it created? Just ask the "smart pig."

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

BP,

If you liked that, check this out, need to read it in full to get the full gist..

http://baltimorechronicle.com/2006/080806PALAST.shtml

NEWS BACKGROUND & OPINION:

British Petroleum's "Smart Pig"

The Brilliantly Profitable Timing of the Alaska Oil Pipeline Shutdown

by GREG PALAST

The "pig" is an electronic drone that BP should have been using continuously, though they had not done so for 14 years.Tues., Aug. 9, 2006--Is the Alaska Pipeline corroded? You bet it is. Has been for more than a decade. Did British Petroleum shut the pipe yesterday to turn a quick buck on its negligence, to profit off the disaster it created? Just ask the "smart pig."

Interesting artcile. This bit, if true, confirms all our worse fears, that BP, Shell, Total and Exxon are all pushing for the magic $100bbl:

Even then, courageous government inspectors and pipeline workers were screaming about corrosion all through the pipeline. I say "courageous" because BP, which owns 46% of the pipe and is supposed to manage the system, has been known to hunt down and destroy the careers of those who warn of pipeline problems..../
But $2 a barrel is just the beginning of BP's shut-down bonus. The Alaskan oil was destined for the California market, which now faces a supply crisis at the very height of the summer travel season. The big winner is ARCO petroleum, the largest retailer in the Golden State. ARCO is a 100%-owned subsidiary of ... British Petroleum.
.

I am wondering if they timed it to coincide with the start of Hurricane season in the Gulf of Mexico? They must be frustrated that there has not been much in the way of Hurricanes so far.

Edited by Realistbear

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

http://www.theage.com.au/news/business/cru...4802850439.html

IMO inflation will be rampant for a long time! :ph34r:

If the USD$ keeps falling then the cost in pounds will stay the same for Oil and becuse the FED did not up the IR rate and the ECB/BoE did then who wants to hold $$$$$$$$$ as the petrodollar continues it's meltdown.

Bush started all this on 9/11 and now he wants to drag Iran and Syria into a war but what if Russia and China backs Iran, yes things are not looking good and G.W Bush the Antichrist needs to be stopped else we could all end up glowing in the dark.

a growing number of people wants Bush Impeached so lets hope this happens before more damage is done.

Edited by Justice

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If the USD$ keeps falling then the cost in pounds will stay the same for Oil and becuse the FED did not up the IR rate and the ECB/BoE did then who wants to hold $$$$$$$$$ as the petrodollar continues it's meltdown.

Bush started all this on 9/11 and now he wants to drag Iran and Syria into a war but what if Russia and China backs Iran, yes things are not looking good and G.W Bush the Antichrist needs to be stopped else we could all end up glowing in the dark.

a growing number of people wants Bush impeached so lets hope this happens before more damage is done.

Sadly, I think you are right. However, I think Bush is seen more as the Anti-Allah than the Anti-Christ. I agree that the situation is dragging in a lot of pent up forces. The Iranians are mostly Shia Moslems which the Hezbollah Fighters are part of. The difficulty arises because the Syrians are Sunnis who hate the Shias. The civil war in Iraq is between the Shias and the Sunnis and Iran is supporting their own as a continuation of the long standing war between Iran and Iraq.

To add even more comlexity to the mess, the rulers of Syria are neither Sunni nor Shia but part of a fringe Moslem sect known as "Alawite" whom the Sunnis regard as heretical. A similar complication existed in Iraq when Saddam ruled with the backing of a non-aligned Baath party.

The difficulty the Soviets find themselves in is that they are already fighting a war against Moslems in Chechnya who, as you will recall, massacred a group of Russian school children that Moslem Freedom Figheters/Terrosits kidnapped and then threatened to blow up. The Russians also have a difficult time explaining their war in Afghanistan where the Taliban Moslems fought them over a number of years. The Chinese are no friends of the Moslems either as they fear any kind of religious fervour in their own country and have actively culled Moslems in neighbouring Tibet.

The problem now is who is going to control all the divergent Moslem sects--will it be the Russians through the Iranian Shias or will it be the Chinese who are more pro Sunni which the Saudi's and Syrians prefer? Russia and China only co-operate when its anti-West but they have widely divergent interests when it comes to oil. There is NO way the Chinese want the Russians to control oil in the Middle East as China is, like Japan, dependent on cheap oil.

But you may be right that all of this is the fault of the West and Bush in particular because one thing is for ceratin that the Middle East would not have any troubles if Kennedy was still president and if Margarat T was still our PM.

When Bush started all of this in 9/11 by blaming Arab nationals under the direction of Al Qaeda for flying the planes into the public buildings when it was actually a group of American Southern White supremecists lead by Elvis Presely who was going to die anyway from cancer things were bound to get out of control. And how do we know that it is really Hezbollah who were firing the rockets into Israel? It could have been the CIA to start a nuclear war in the middle east and contaminate the oil supplies so that no-one could use it and thus push up oil to $500 bbl? You never know as truth is often stranger than fiction and I saw that possibility mentioned in a paper the other day. <_<

Edited by Realistbear

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

a growing number of people wants Bush Impeached so lets hope this happens before more damage is done.

A growing number of people want you to stop posting your ridiculous off topic paranoid cack.

You can always tell when it's a slow day on the relevant housing market news front when Justine appears railing against black supermarket checkout staff.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If the USD$ keeps falling then the cost in pounds will stay the same for Oil and becuse the FED did not up the IR rate and the ECB/BoE did then who wants to hold $$$$$$$$$ as the petrodollar continues it's meltdown.

Bush started all this on 9/11 and now he wants to drag Iran and Syria into a war but what if Russia and China backs Iran, yes things are not looking good and G.W Bush the Antichrist needs to be stopped else we could all end up glowing in the dark.

a growing number of people wants Bush Impeached so lets hope this happens before more damage is done.

Don't you think it a bit optimistic to think that the doller will fall as fast as oil rises?

So far the the oil prices are well ahead...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A growing number of people want you to stop posting your ridiculous off topic paranoid cack.

You can always tell when it's a slow day on the relevant housing market news front when Justine appears railing against black supermarket checkout staff.

Is your head full of crumbs, like your avatar? Are you actually going to join the debate or carry on flicking little biscuit size morcels onto the BB without even taking time to dunk your thoughts?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Don't you think it a bit optimistic to think that the doller will fall as fast as oil rises?

So far the the oil prices are well ahead...

I think (and I admit I'm not an expert), that a declining dollar wont necessarily ruduce the oil price. The oil exporting countries wont be happy accepting a depreciating dollar for their product. They will put the price up or sell it in euros.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest Alright Jack

I would disagree that oil is in bubble. Inflation is the largest factor in the price rises but the shrinking daylight between supply and demand is creating premiums.

How can oil be in a bubble? Where's the excess capacity? Where's the glut of inventory? Where are all the new discoveries this last ten years?

We have been running a supply deficit since 1985. That is, for the hard of thinking of you with biscuit heads, we have failed to replace in reserves what we have been consuming now for two decades. There have been NO significant discoveries really since 2000, 2001 and they palled in comparison to the last really big finds which were in the north sea and in alaska in the late seventies. Those fields are way, way into depletion now.

To just wave one hands and say "Prices have gone up, we must be in a bubble" is really daft.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Is your head full of crumbs, like your avatar? Are you actually going to join the debate or carry on flicking little biscuit size morcels onto the BB without even taking time to dunk your thoughts?

I've made my contribution: read the thread.

Debate with Justice? How do you engage with the tripe he / she serves up and who would want to. I take it you will be joining the boycott of shops that employ blacks, then.

Talking avatars, how about yours takes the next step and slam his face onto the exam desk?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Lionel Richtea

You highlighted a bit about Bush being impeached and then went offf on a completely alternative tack. Can't make head nor tale of your posts to be honest.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I would disagree that oil is in bubble. Inflation is the largest factor in the price rises but the shrinking daylight between supply and demand is creating premiums.

How can oil be in a bubble? Where's the excess capacity? Where's the glut of inventory? Where are all the new discoveries this last ten years?

We have been running a supply deficit since 1985. That is, for the hard of thinking of you with biscuit heads, we have failed to replace in reserves what we have been consuming now for two decades. There have been NO significant discoveries really since 2000, 2001 and they palled in comparison to the last really big finds which were in the north sea and in alaska in the late seventies. Those fields are way, way into depletion now.

To just wave one hands and say "Prices have gone up, we must be in a bubble" is really daft.

My initial posting was facetious in part, serious in part. A combination of Lionel and Richtea, if you will.

There are more parallels between the housing and oil than you appear able to grasp. Even with my head crafted of Netto dough, I am able to think, how shall we put it, "Beyond Petroleum".

Land, like oil, is finite. Unlike land, there are many perfect substitutes for oil. When the price of oil gets too high, there is an economic incentive to develop these perfect subsitutes to make them cheaper. Which is why Saudi Arabia is pumping away furiously: the last thing OPEC want is for oil to be so expensive that alternative fuels become viable.

So, in fact, the fundamentals drive housing more than they drive oil price.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.