Realistbear Posted August 8, 2006 Share Posted August 8, 2006 http://personal.fidelity.com/research/stoc...ketsindex.shtml Fed may pause its rate rises 12:39 p.m. 08/08/2006 By Glenn Somerville WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. Federal Reserve policymakers Tuesday may break the chain of interest-rate rises they began two years ago but economists say this won't necessarily mean they are laying down arms against inflation. The U.S. central bank faces the challenge of ensuring that its string of rate rises do not slow the economy more than that is needed to reverse accelerating inflation, fanned by soaring energy costs and and an upswing in labor costs. Policy-setting members of the Federal Open Market Committee began meeting at 8:30 a.m. Washington time -- a half hour earlier than past custom for one-day meetings -- and are to announce a decision about 2:15 p.m. I wouldn't want to place a bet on it but, IMO, Ben will nudge the rates up another .25% and remain vigilant. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Realistbear Posted August 8, 2006 Author Share Posted August 8, 2006 http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/5257068.stm Some analysts say that the Fed cannot do too much about rising inflation, because it is being stoked primarily by soaring energy costs - a factor over which it has no control. "The time is ripe for the Fed to pull the plug on this tenacious two-year-old tightening cycle," said Merrill Lynch economist David Rosenberg. "We are amazed at the number of folks out there who still feel the need for the Fed to raise rates further because of elevated inflation pressures. "There is simply nothing the Fed can do about the current inflation backdrop right now." However, Mr Rosenberg's counterparts at Goldman Sachs are forecasting a quarter-percentage point rise to 5.5%, although they admit it is "a close call". Merrill Lynch says no, Goldman Sachs says yes. Just checked the US money CD market and they say no. I wonder what betfair say? We all know that the computer says no.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason Posted August 8, 2006 Share Posted August 8, 2006 Some analysts say that the Fed cannot do too much about rising inflation, because it is being stoked primarily by soaring energy costs - a factor over which it has no control. So the money suppy of the largest economy on Earth has nothing to do with rising commodity prices. The BBC just do not have a clue. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkG Posted August 8, 2006 Share Posted August 8, 2006 Indeed: I'm continually amused by people who fail to see the link between massive credit expansion and rising energy prices... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Realistbear Posted August 8, 2006 Author Share Posted August 8, 2006 40 minutes and counting........................... Getting ready to celebrate if its a hike. If not, its because recession is on the way sooner rather than later. HPC cometh either way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flatnose Posted August 8, 2006 Share Posted August 8, 2006 just put a fiver on backing a raise Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dames Posted August 8, 2006 Share Posted August 8, 2006 What odds did you get? D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Realistbear Posted August 8, 2006 Author Share Posted August 8, 2006 just put a fiver on backing a raise 6 minutes.................... I wish I had risked a tenner on a hike. Seems there is a good bias against a hike. But then they thought the BoE would stand pat and they didn't. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flatnose Posted August 8, 2006 Share Posted August 8, 2006 What odds did you get? D 3.9 to 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpoonUnit Posted August 8, 2006 Share Posted August 8, 2006 6 minutes.................... I wish I had risked a tenner on a hike. Seems there is a good bias against a hike. But then they thought the BoE would stand pat and they didn't. Getting quite excited there RB! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Realistbear Posted August 8, 2006 Author Share Posted August 8, 2006 Getting quite excited there RB! Darn right! 3 minutes now................................. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flatnose Posted August 8, 2006 Share Posted August 8, 2006 6 minutes.................... I wish I had risked a tenner on a hike. Seems there is a good bias against a hike. But then they thought the BoE would stand pat and they didn't. Yes I am betting with my winnings from the BOE rise had a tenner on that one Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Realistbear Posted August 8, 2006 Author Share Posted August 8, 2006 Yes I am betting with my winnings from the BOE rise had a tenner on that one 1 minute---hope he is not late. The say Ben is shuffling papers and smiling at the press. Just winked when asked what the result is......this is dramatic.................... 10 seconds.................. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samuel Whiskers Posted August 8, 2006 Share Posted August 8, 2006 Is the HPC clock wrong? Or is it meant to be an hour slow? Or have the clocks changed without me realising? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flatnose Posted August 8, 2006 Share Posted August 8, 2006 ******! :angry: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nic Posted August 8, 2006 Share Posted August 8, 2006 pause.. or? dow & nasdaq turned sharply up Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkG Posted August 8, 2006 Share Posted August 8, 2006 Dollar's sinking like the Titanic... did he hold? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Realistbear Posted August 8, 2006 Author Share Posted August 8, 2006 DOW just hit vertical--must be no hike???? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samuel Whiskers Posted August 8, 2006 Share Posted August 8, 2006 ******! :angry: It was an hour slow before I posted. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flatnose Posted August 8, 2006 Share Posted August 8, 2006 Dollar's sinking like the Titanic... did he hold? Yes ...go here Statement Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Realistbear Posted August 8, 2006 Author Share Posted August 8, 2006 The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to keep its target for the federal funds rate at 5-1/4 percent. Looks like recession coming. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkG Posted August 8, 2006 Share Posted August 8, 2006 Guess the dollar rout really starts in earnest now... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapkirsty Posted August 8, 2006 Share Posted August 8, 2006 Ben's bottled it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Realistbear Posted August 8, 2006 Author Share Posted August 8, 2006 (edited) DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE IN (DJI:^DJI) Delayed quote data Edit Index Value: 11,275.25 Trade Time: 2:20PM ET Change: Up 55.87 (0.50%) Prev Close: 11,219.38 Open: 11,218.18 Day's Range: 11,218.18 - 11,275.25 52wk Range: 10,098.20 - 11,709.10 Word on the street is that any rally will be shortlived as recession is not good for earnings. Short term euphoria. 1 U.K. £ = 1 1.9131 Nice for our trade balance DJ INDUSTR AVERAGE (DJI:^DJI) Edit Index Value: 11,253.80 Trade Time: 7:22PM Change: Up 34.42 (0.31%) Prev Close: 11,219.38 Open: 11,218.18 Day's Range: 11,218.18 - 11,276.29 52wk Range: 10,098.20 - 11,709.10 Volume: 113,215,696 Very short lived? Edited August 8, 2006 by Realistbear Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redwing Posted August 8, 2006 Share Posted August 8, 2006 The markets will interpret this as an end to the current sequence of rising interest rates (in the US). Hence expectations of growing profits when they start to come down later. Glad I've got a few shares (a very few btw). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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