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In a nutshell, I am currently abroad and renting my house in Windsor. Its paying for itself at the mo. At the moment I think first quarter 2007 would be around the right time to put it on the market as I don't think we'll see a sharp downturn in house prices before next summer.

Basically I think the trough will occur in the UK shortly after US market has taken a plunge. Unless there's another 9-11 I think it will hit around May-June timeframe. Historically I think this is when Dow Jones normally takes a plunge.

Thoughts anyone?

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Interesting, think about the following:

How much equity do you have in the property, do you need it?

Are the tenants looking after the place, are they in for the long term?

How easy is it to let if the current tenants move on?

Will you have a capital gains liability when you sell?

Will you need to spend money on the house in order to sell and get a keen price?

How much trouble is the ongoing maintenance and management of the property?

.....

Can't instantly think of any more.....

I think the key thing to remember is property values will always fluctuate, and it costs lots of money buying and selling. As one of the wealthiest landowners in the uk says, I quote "You don't make money by selling houses".

In principal, if you play the long game and keep the house, chances are you will be better off. Ride out the dips, will cost less than attempting to predict them and getting it wrong.

Of course, there is the old saying "A bird in the hand it worth two in the bush", if you have a nice amount of equity that you could invest elsewhere, get rid now, by holding on you may miss your buyer all for the sake of a few extra grand.

Good Luck

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Interesting, think about the following:

How much equity do you have in the property, do you need it?

Are the tenants looking after the place, are they in for the long term?

How easy is it to let if the current tenants move on?

Will you have a capital gains liability when you sell?

Will you need to spend money on the house in order to sell and get a keen price?

How much trouble is the ongoing maintenance and management of the property?

.....

Can't instantly think of any more.....

I think the key thing to remember is property values will always fluctuate, and it costs lots of money buying and selling. As one of the wealthiest landowners in the uk says, I quote "You don't make money by selling houses".

In principal, if you play the long game and keep the house, chances are you will be better off. Ride out the dips, will cost less than attempting to predict them and getting it wrong.

Of course, there is the old saying "A bird in the hand it worth two in the bush", if you have a nice amount of equity that you could invest elsewhere, get rid now, by holding on you may miss your buyer all for the sake of a few extra grand.

Good Luck

Thanks for the thoughts.

Have around 200K equity in the house.

Long term tennants have been there 2 years. Very reliable. Probably would only sell if they left. Slowly chipping away at the mortgage.

Primary residence- owned 4 years so not sure if I have capital gains tax to pay.

Could sell as is. Low maintenance but could invest around 5K for new bathroom/extra bed.

Don't have anything I'm burning to buy- don't really need the money either. Main reason would be to get off the ladder at peak and re-enter market in a couple of years.

May take the boring, slow route and hang on as I don't fancy having to pay all the taxes and fees further down the line. Reality would be that I would need a >10% price decline to really be better off.

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Guest The_Oldie

In a nutshell, I am currently abroad and renting my house in Windsor. Its paying for itself at the mo. At the moment I think first quarter 2007 would be around the right time to put it on the market as I don't think we'll see a sharp downturn in house prices before next summer.

Basically I think the trough will occur in the UK shortly after US market has taken a plunge. Unless there's another 9-11 I think it will hit around May-June timeframe. Historically I think this is when Dow Jones normally takes a plunge.

Thoughts anyone?

Probably best not to cut it too fine. All you need is for a sale to fall through and you could miss your chance to get out.

Remember the Rothschild advice. "Leave the last 10% to the market" ;).

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Hi ChiefDuffer,

It would really sound to me that you should hang on to it, the hassle of selling, selling at the optimum time, monitoring the market for a re-entry point (which could be wrong) finding a new property (at the right price), buying it – looks to me you will make far more money by holding.

Even if it does decline in value slightly it will only eat into your paper profits and in my experience you will still be very well ahead. The value will come back and exceed the current one within 5 years or so, all the time your LTV is improving.

If you want to really profit use some of your equity to acquire another property (carefully), remember "Don't wait to buy property – Buy property and wait".

Best regards,

Carl Henry

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Mmm, I live in Maidenhead and sold up last month. Moved into rented as the signs are not looking too healthy for property at present. The problem is, if prices take an obvious dip and people panic, they will dive. You will not then be able to sell without seriously denting your wallet I don't know if you have been following local prices of late but to my mind in M/head, Cookham and Marlow, they stagnated in November 05. It's anyone's guess which way they will go next but to my mind it's down.

If you're in it for the long haul it makes no difference as they will go up again after a crash (won't they?), but interest rates need watching at the moment too. Do you recall 12% interest rates?

Have a nice day. :)

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Mmm, I live in Maidenhead and sold up last month. Moved into rented as the signs are not looking too healthy for property at present. The problem is, if prices take an obvious dip and people panic, they will dive. You will not then be able to sell without seriously denting your wallet I don't know if you have been following local prices of late but to my mind in M/head, Cookham and Marlow, they stagnated in November 05. It's anyone's guess which way they will go next but to my mind it's down.

If you're in it for the long haul it makes no difference as they will go up again after a crash (won't they?), but interest rates need watching at the moment too. Do you recall 12% interest rates?

Have a nice day. :)

Hi SoT,

I seem to remember that in 1989 I had a mortgage of £89k at 19.5%!! - you are right if the rates go crazy again it will be hard on the mortgagees. I certainly think this would be more of a worry than lowering values as the trend is ever upwards since the dawn of time (or records anyway).

What do you think about the word "crash" it is very descriptive but possibly describes how it feels to the people who are not expecting it - I remember after I got out of the high priced mortgage I ended up in London buying repossessions cheaply, doing them up & selling them.

"No rest for the wicked!"

Cheers!

Carl Henry

Here's a link to a nice graph of the rise in flat prices in Maidenhead since 1995 (something to think about)

http://www.upmystreet.com/property/prices/...maidenhead.html

Edited by Carl Henry

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Remember the Rothschild advice. "Leave the last 10% to the market"
;)

Good advice from someone who knew how to make money and keep it.

They quite literally have done (and still do if they retain ownership of the CB printing presses) :)

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Warren Buffett, the Archcontrarian, would say observe the masses and do the opposite. The sheeple have been borrowing beyond their ability to pay and piling into housing since 1998. A lot of those sheeple will be trying to sell in the near future.

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The last time I looked at the HPI for Windsor it was -12%. I find this very hard to believe since I read the property news week in week out and asking prices certainly haven't dropped that much, if at all.

It depends where in Windsor really. Anywhere within 1/2 a mile of the town centre and the castle will be worth holding onto for the long haul.

West Windsor (Dedworth) prices however will be the first to drop and may be the culprit for causing the 12% drop.

Edited by enworb

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I am in a similar position with regard to my house in Plymouth. (I am also living abroad and have let the house). I have also considered selling, but the house is in good condition, I have good tenants, a lettign agent who takes care of all the hassle for me, and it is (almost) paying for itself. If I sell, I have to pay commission, plus I would have transaction costs if I re-enter the market.

Yes, the market may fall, but on the other hand it may not. It may even go up! I am happy to hang on, even though the price may drop in the short-term. If I was knowledgeable about other investments, I might sell, but it seems to me other investments also have their risks and costs, and at the moment I don't have the time or interest to learn about the stock market etc. Maybe that's foolish but I am happy hanging on.

I think the question is, what would you do with your equity if you sold the house? In spite of what many people say on here, I still think property is a low-risk investment in the long term (I have to stress that otherwise everyone goes mental).

The last time I looked at the HPI for Windsor it was -12%. I find this very hard to believe since I read the property news week in week out and asking prices certainly haven't dropped that much, if at all.

As people who are a lot smarter than I am keep pointing out, these small samples aren't statistically significantly - a few expensive houses or a few cheap ones can skew the sample.

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I am in a similar position with regard to my house in Plymouth. (I am also living abroad and have let the house). I have also considered selling, but the house is in good condition, I have good tenants, a lettign agent who takes care of all the hassle for me, and it is (almost) paying for itself. If I sell, I have to pay commission, plus I would have transaction costs if I re-enter the market.

Yes, the market may fall, but on the other hand it may not. It may even go up! I am happy to hang on, even though the price may drop in the short-term. If I was knowledgeable about other investments, I might sell, but it seems to me other investments also have their risks and costs, and at the moment I don't have the time or interest to learn about the stock market etc. Maybe that's foolish but I am happy hanging on.

I think the question is, what would you do with your equity if you sold the house? In spite of what many people say on here, I still think property is a low-risk investment in the long term (I have to stress that otherwise everyone goes mental).

As people who are a lot smarter than I am keep pointing out, these small samples aren't statistically significantly - a few expensive houses or a few cheap ones can skew the sample.

True. It could be the large influx of new build 1 bed apartments that have brought the average down.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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