Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
I Told You So

Interest Rates Rise Priced In For Sept

Recommended Posts

Looking at IG index short sterling prices it appears they have priced in another rise for next month, all you financial whizzes is this right?

Current price : Sept, Sell 9496 Buy 9497

Nope - you have to add 0025 onto the number.

Suggestion is between 12-16% chance of a rise.

Long time since I was involved in this sort of thing so I may be wrong

Edited by pondlife

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

And the predicted rate for year end is 4.95%. So more chance of another rise by year end, than no move. Now won't that be a shock for the BBC.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

And the predicted rate for year end is 4.95%. So more chance of another rise by year end, than no move. Now won't that be a shock for the BBC.

Should that not read 4.75% or 5.0% or 5.25% ? I thought it went up in multiples of 0.25%

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Should that not read 4.75% or 5.0% or 5.25% ? I thought it went up in multiples of 0.25%

I expect it's probability weighted. But that's a guess. I have no evidence or specialist knowledge to support this.

Also, I believe that quarter point steps are long-standing convention, rather than compulsory.

Edited by JJJ

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Should that not read 4.75% or 5.0% or 5.25% ? I thought it went up in multiples of 0.25%

These are financial market guesses.

4.95% means that it is probably gonna be 5%, but if not is more likely to be 4.75% than 5.25%

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Looking at IG index short sterling prices it appears they have priced in another rise for next month, all you financial whizzes is this right?

Current price : Sept, Sell 9496 Buy 9497

Dec short sterling stands at 94.790. (futuresource.com). Looks that the market consensus is that the next .25% hike in IR will come by Dec. But again, opinions change.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest Alright Jack

I wonder when the best time to raise again will be? August made sense, because it is such a quiet month (interesting that Bernanke chose August to go on pause)

They may be worried about spoiling christmans which rules out, november and december.

So we're left with september and october. I think they'll get it over with in september then leave a christmas unblemished.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I wonder when the best time to raise again will be? August made sense, because it is such a quiet month (interesting that Bernanke chose August to go on pause)

They may be worried about spoiling christmans which rules out, november and december.

So we're left with september and october. I think they'll get it over with in september then leave a christmas unblemished.

Could be September, I hope so, but now that the Fed have held I would guess the October would be the better bet. Also, I would this that the MPC will want to sit and watch the market reactions for awhile.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Could be September, I hope so, but now that the Fed have held I would guess the October would be the better bet. Also, I would this that the MPC will want to sit and watch the market reactions for awhile.

November is most likely as that's when the next quarterly inflation report comes out.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

US: Will HOLD until after Congressional Elections in November when we'll be back on regular increments again.

UK: If today's Inflation Report is CPI 2.5% (isn't that unchanged from May ?) then I think we're looking at HOLD until Next Inflation Report in November. I Think the BoE would like another 25bp rise then but Sterling may be too strong vis-a-vis the dollar.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.