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Dubai On A Knife Edge

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below is an article from moneyweek on the problems facing dubai - the massive oversupply of new build - the failure to invest in the infrastructure to support it - and the struggle to resell completed properties

Dubai Property - Moneyweek Article

hey thats a good article, thanks for that

confirms many of my worst suspicions about Dubai

basically its just a friggin desert - without cheap oil the place is screwed

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I disagree..... Dubai is and will stay a strong investment. You wont see easy money like before, no more buying and selling a few months later to make bomb. But long term it will last. Compared to the UK market where you'll be lucky to achieve 5 or 6% rental yeilds, Dubai will still give you between 10-12% yeilds. I imagine this percentage to slide as more property becomes available throughout the next 2 years. But even if it slides to 8% its still far better than the UK, and don't forget there is no tax unlike the UK!

Dubai will stabilise over the next 2-3 years and should level off and provide a safe sensible return for your money. To avoid problems be sure to invest in the right places in Dubai. The Palm will always be in demand, but if money is a problem I suggest the marina to be a safe bet. Situated right by internet city and media city. Best place to be for corporate lets.

Sports City I would avoid.

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GASMAN,

What do you mean, "there is no tax" ?.

If you are UK resident for tax purposes you are liable for tax on all your earnings/capital gains, wherever in the world obtained, and regardless of whether or not you remit them to UK

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A recent review of the Burj El Arab on Tripadvisor - says it all

''We arrived at the Burj, nobody met our car or welcomed us even though a group of doormen were standing laughing and joking with each other. We walked in, had to find our own way to the elevators with no clear signage to the cocktail bar and no one in sight to assist.

In the sky view bar we were unable to sit anywhere with a "view" let alone a Sky View and the seating next to the windows prevented us from even a standing view.

A large group of footballers were completely ignoring the supposed dress code lounging around in jeans and trainers, a guy behind us was ringing people in england bragging it was his 40th birthday and yes guess what, he was in the buuurrrjjj!

The decor throughout was psychadelic and whilst the outside is iconic, the inside is lavish to the point of being tacky

We were served a selection of canapes as part of our package which were totally prepackaged and could have been straight out of Tesco's, nothing 7 star there

On leaving we were confronted with a horde of hooray's leaving the ball room, one drunk girl turning to us and saying oooh yooo tooo - is she yooouuur looveer or yer wife? It said it all we found the place to be full of footballers, chavs, trust fund kids, toffs etc.''

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A recent review of the Burj El Arab on Tripadvisor - says it all

''We arrived at the Burj, nobody met our car or welcomed us even though a group of doormen were standing laughing and joking with each other. We walked in, had to find our own way to the elevators with no clear signage to the cocktail bar and no one in sight to assist.

In the sky view bar we were unable to sit anywhere with a "view" let alone a Sky View and the seating next to the windows prevented us from even a standing view.

A large group of footballers were completely ignoring the supposed dress code lounging around in jeans and trainers, a guy behind us was ringing people in england bragging it was his 40th birthday and yes guess what, he was in the buuurrrjjj!

The decor throughout was psychadelic and whilst the outside is iconic, the inside is lavish to the point of being tacky

We were served a selection of canapes as part of our package which were totally prepackaged and could have been straight out of Tesco's, nothing 7 star there

On leaving we were confronted with a horde of hooray's leaving the ball room, one drunk girl turning to us and saying oooh yooo tooo - is she yooouuur looveer or yer wife? It said it all we found the place to be full of footballers, chavs, trust fund kids, toffs etc.''

I'm sorry but using the above holiday tale as a reason not to invest in Dubai property is nothing short of laughable.

Gasman is right on the money with his comments about Dubai. Although the 'no tax' only holds true if you are resident in Dubai.

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All roads lead ultimatley to rome including the monopoly annointed government developers who were given free of charge all the land they have developed or sold to others to develop. Now they are trying to fullfill the hype and promises . Living near the marina I can only say its a monstrosity of concrete where tower blocks look on to tower blocks. Unfortunately there is no recourse to complain, owners are held hostage to 'maintenance charges' and have still no freehold rights, buyers need to put up with dubious practices from so called agents. There is no second hand market, no transparency in costs or prices, volume of sales etc or defined laws for property rights. Try suing Emaar or Nakheel in the Dubai courts. They developments are ill thought out, had no environmental or infrastructure planning, disregarded basic human rights in their construction and although were initially costed at roughly 110 - 220 dhs per sq ft failed to build in rampant inflation due to unbridled development. I believe contractors are now working within 500+. The palm and the world is an example of how things can go very wrong. The stock market is the worse performing stock market in the world falling from 1000+ to 400 since January, Emaars shares are now trading at about 10 Dhs from heady hights of 50 Dhs. Interest rates are on the rise around the world and inflation is double figures in Dubai. I believe those who got in early as always will win but anyone going in now specifically in flats/apartments will find better returns elsewhere. As always buyer beware.

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Jesus Christ - in ten years time this place will be a monumental lesson in everything that can go wrong in construction speculation on a massive scale - the place will be the biggest concrete ghost town in the world - seriously who the **** is gonna live in all these apartments & villas?

Cue tumbleweed....

The World

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Jesus Christ - in ten years time this place will be a monumental lesson in everything that can go wrong in construction speculation on a massive scale - the place will be the biggest concrete ghost town in the world - seriously who the **** is gonna live in all these apartments & villas?

Cue tumbleweed....

The World

I like a risk (Morocco) but Dubai would cause me to sh1t myself.

Hundreds of thousands of newbie investors all expecting a queue of tenants in the next couple of years as the developments complete!

Even Palm Island I wouldnt touch. The whole thing built on sand. Multiple shopping centres and tower blocks on this sandy base in an active seismic area - yikes!

To me its the hieght of gaudy chintz. Totally fake ott monstrous carbuncle.

Dubai was a play a few years back. If youre still in now, sell quickly and move into virgin markets.

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I like a risk (Morocco) but Dubai would cause me to sh1t myself.

Hundreds of thousands of newbie investors all expecting a queue of tenants in the next couple of years as the developments complete!

Even Palm Island I wouldnt touch. The whole thing built on sand. Multiple shopping centres and tower blocks on this sandy base in an active seismic area - yikes!

To me its the hieght of gaudy chintz. Totally fake ott monstrous carbuncle.

Dubai was a play a few years back. If youre still in now, sell quickly and move into virgin markets.

The Financial Express

Thursday August 10th 2006

Homes on Dubai's palm island being readied for first residents

8/10/2006

WITH 14,000 labourers toiling day and night, the first of Dubai's three palm-shaped islands is finally about to get its first residents.

The Palm Jumeirah, a 31-square-kilometre (12-square-mile) island group, is part of what's billed as the largest land-reclamation project in the world, involving the hauling of millions of tonnes of Gulf sand and quarried rock over five years.

On Nov. 30, the palm will open to some 4,000 residents, said Issam Kazim, a spokesman for Dubai's state-owned developer Nakheel.

When fully complete by 2010, the Palm Jumeirah will be an offshore city, with some 60,000 residents and at least 50,000 workers in 32 hotels and dozens of shops and attractions, according to Nakheel.

Observers say they are surprised that the fledgling developer has been able to build such a complex project more or less as planned, albeit with several snags that delayed the opening from last year.

"The project has captured people's imagination," said Colin Foreman of the Middle East Economic Digest. "Nothing like it has been done anywhere else in the world."

Nakheel's four island projects, the world's largest land reclamation effort, are reshaping Dubai's stretch of the Gulf coast.

The US$14 billion (euro10.9 billion) project is a key part of this booming city's ambitions to rival Singapore and Hong Kong as a business hub and surpass Las Vegas as a leisure capital.

The frenetic pace of development has utterly transformed Dubai from a sleepy trading and pearl-diving village in the 1950s to a flashy metropolis of 1.5 million.

The island's construction has not all been smooth, and most buyers were supposed to get keys to their island homes a year ago.

Some of the new land sank and Nakheel needed an extra year to add more sand and pack it with vibrating land compactors, Kazim said.

Reports from those who have wandered through the island's giant homes describe them as cheaply finished and set uncomfortably close to one another. Nakheel rejected an Associated Press request to visit the island.

Overburdened roads in Dubai's Jumeirah Beach neighbourhood are expected to clog further as people begin moving onto the island, accessible, for now, by a single bridge. Mainlanders have already put up with years of road works and innumerable trucks hauling boulders to the island.

Those moving onto the Palm Jumeirah this year will have to live with construction for another three years, and then an influx of tourists. Most of the owners are foreigners, with Britons making up the largest group, Kazim said.

Many observers believe Dubai's frenetic home-building will soon outstrip demand.

"We've still got a shortage of properties in Dubai, but that's likely to become an excess in next six or 12 months," said Steve Brice, an economist with Standard Chartered Bank in Dubai.

Brice said year-old estimates that 50,000 housing units would hit the market in 2006 will be more than doubled. Nakheel, one of three big developers here, has said it will release 60,000 units in the second half of 2006 alone.

Nakheel's two copycat Palms, the Palm Jebel Ali and Palm Deira, have also been delayed by design changes and other factors, Kazim said. A nearly finished fourth Nakheel archipelago, shaped like a map of the world, has attracted few buyers and remains mostly unsold.

Kazim said The World's sales trouble stems from simple economics:

Nakheel is selling empty islands for tens of millions of dollars (euros) only to builders promising low-density luxury.

Dubai's government expects the Palm Jumeirah to become a signature tourist attraction, bringing in as many as 20,000 daily visitors, Kazim said.

Meanwhile, labourers living in a cruise ship moored offshore are scrambling to finish enormous concrete houses that are crammed together on the palm island's 17 "fronds."

The fronds are narrow peninsulas as long as 1.6 kilometers (a mile), attached to the island's main trunk. Nakheel will hand keys to owners of 1,350 homes by Nov. 30, Kazim said.

Also nearing completion are 2,650 apartments in 20 high-rises that have sprung up on the island's trunk. T

he hulking complexes are visible from shore, where the sprawling island, with its dredges, highway overpasses and construction cranes has become a major eyesore for resort hotels on Dubai's once idyllic natural beaches.

Even after the handover in November, less than half of the island's construction will be finished. Kazim said the project won't be done until nearly 2010, if things go according to Nakheel's current schedule.

The 1,500 room Atlantis Hotel is already under construction by South Africa and Dubai-owned Kerzner International, and is expected to be finished in 2009.

The hotel will be similar to its Atlantis hotel in The Bahamas.

A redesigned Trump Hotel and Tower on the island is also expected to open sometime in 2009, Kazim said.

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FFS - the only people making any money from this S-Hole in the sand are a)the government & b)developers who got in at the start - small time wannabe flippers are just gonna get their nuts roasted.

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hey thats a good article, thanks for that

confirms many of my worst suspicions about Dubai

basically its just a friggin desert - without cheap oil the place is screwed

Without cheap oil? Oil only accounts for about 6% of Dubai's GDP ......Oh, and it ain't cheap at $75! :lol:

It is far from just a desert, it has huge potential with millions of cash rich tourists and investors in very close proximity........

Will it succeed? Who knows, but those who are quick to say it can't should look back over the past 30 years and will read very similar -ve comments about other projects undertaken by the Dubai Government.

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There are way way too many developments compared to the number of indigenous people.

After the construction boom many thousands will leave.

Already there are new developments standing empty or nearly empty.

Developers have to shake a few friendly sheiks to buy lots just to con a few new investors that the place will take off.

Dont touch it with a barge-pole.

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Dubai is a very complex and emerging market, some of the views expressed here have been rather simplistic, it is difficult to directly equate the Dubai property market to the UK property market.

Iranians keen to find somewhere to park their cash outside of Iran (but close to home)...... Asians keen to secure residence visas for themselves and extended family through property purchases.........a rapidly expanding economy & population.......a growing tourist destination.......

Is there going to be oversupply? Almost certainly (in apartments anyway). Will there be a correction? Probably, but I doubt it will be on the scale that some here are suggesting.

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[i think it's time Desert Knight was banned from this forum. He doesn't seem to realise that you are only allowed to spread doom and gloom! :angry:

Well said DK. The Dubai market will undoubtedly correct itself in 2007, but the prices will move upwards again as Dubai continues with its megavision and envisaged population and tourist growth.

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Quite a few of the prices look a little wacky on this site, maybe that's the reason for the disclaimer, anyway I sent an enquiry! :P

Disclaimer

Property reference dubaimarina3. Details provided and maintained by Live Dubai, London. The accuracy of this information is not checked by rightmove.co.uk and therefore rightmove.co.uk makes no warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of these details. Additionally, overseas companies and individuals selling property are not generally bound by the same strict laws that UK companies are required to adhere to regarding property descriptions. You should make your own enquiries as to the accuracy of any information or material available from the rightmove.co.uk Website.

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DK - why are you getting so shirty - you basically agreed with all my comments on the (now locked) Dubai forum - saying the roads were gridlocked - and you wanted us all to know about your big profits when you bailed out of your villa - wot are you trying to prove?

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I'm not trying to prove anything and certainly not getting shirty :D

I feel that many on the thread have little first hand experience or knowledge of the Dubai property market and are overplaying the impending doom and gloom scenario. My intent is to bring a bit of balance, nothing more. B)

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Without cheap oil? Oil only accounts for about 6% of Dubai's GDP ......Oh, and it ain't cheap at $75! :lol:

So Dubai does not have much oil or other natural resources.

And it is trying to build a service-based economy.

Sounds familiar...

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  • 338 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

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      • down 5% +
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      • Even
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      • up 5%



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