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HOUSEHUNTER

I Am Aiming To Buy In 2009

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I need to get a good deposit together over the next 2 or 3 years. I am looking to buy in 2009, in the hope that prices will be lower, how far into the slump do you think we could be by then?

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I need to get a good deposit together over the next 2 or 3 years. I am looking to buy in 2009, in the hope that prices will be lower, how far into the slump do you think we could be by then?

How long is a piece of string...?

Great idea to get a good deposit together first though. That way you'll have a buffer even if you do catch prices on the way down instead of the way up. Not to mention the benefit of 3 years hindsight as to whether most of the doomsayers on here were wasting their time or not! :ph34r:

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Well over the last 10 years house prices have risen to the ridiculous prices they are now, so I predict that they will take at least 3 years for them to crash right down, as much as I want them to nose dive immediately I can't picture it on the HPC graph. :)

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Hmm, wonder what inflation will be like then?

Would it be worth saving for a deposit?

Would it be worth anything?

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No, I do sense that we are in a crisis at the moment and that the BoE will be obliged to make housing more affordable for all those people, including many of the governments own workforce, who can only afford to buy a substandard home, if any and those who are being forced to move from there home towns.

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they have tried to provide key worker housing - you cant properly own it and it is crap quality

Yes I am one of those key workers and can't say it's an attractive package.

I think staying out of the market for 2007 and 2008 is wise

I think the near future is looking very shaky.

Edited by HOUSEHUNTER

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Sounds good to me, there's little to be gained I think by waiting (and predicting) for the absolute bottom of house prices as most of us just want to get on and live our lives. If rates and energy prices continue to rise then 2007 and 2008 could have the biggest falls with further YOY falls till who knows when - I guess when confidence returns and houses seem dirt cheap again. I think staying out of the market for 2007 and 2008 is wise but at some point you have to make the decision to buy even though you may 'lose' money - but remember, even people who bought right at the peak of the last crash and held on through years of negative equity are sitting pretty now although that might not be the case this time around with todays buyers in 16 years time.

Now that's scary.

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Guest mattsta1964

I need to get a good deposit together over the next 2 or 3 years. I am looking to buy in 2009, in the hope that prices will be lower, how far into the slump do you think we could be by then?

My advice is you'll probably have to wait 5-6 years before property prices reach their nadir. The problem is, the economic circumstances in 5-6 years time are an unknown quantity. You're right to try and save as much money as possible but I'm not sure that keeping your savings in cash in a bank is the best idea. If inflation does rise considerably, your savings will be eroded so you need to look carefully how best to protect your savings. High inflation could be good for borrowers of course, but only if they are still working and your pay is keeping up with the devaluation of the currency..........Pretty unlikely!

I think we are all caught between a rock and a hard place. I for one, have no idea what the best strategy is. I'm thinking of selling my place though, and pretty sharpish!

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I need to get a good deposit together over the next 2 or 3 years. I am looking to buy in 2009, in the hope that prices will be lower, how far into the slump do you think we could be by then?

Not very far.

I think everyone is underestimating how long this slump is going to last.

The sheer amount of debt that people have now, the downwards pressure on wages because everywhere else in the world is cheaper to do business, graduate debt due to average £30K in 3-4 years time when tuition fees bite.

I think we face a Japanese style 10-15 years of depreciating houses

My advice is you'll probably have to wait 5-6 years before property prices reach their nadir. The problem is, the economic circumstances in 5-6 years time are an unknown quantity. You're right to try and save as much money as possible but I'm not sure that keeping your savings in cash in a bank is the best idea. If inflation does rise considerably, your savings will be eroded so you need to look carefully how best to protect your savings.

But if you are saving for a house then it is only house price inflation that you are concerned with.

If HPI is negative and you are getting 5% in a bank account then you are doing very well as your 'real' interest rate is 5% + whatever the negative HPI is.

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Not very far.

I think everyone is underestimating how long this slump is going to last.

Except at least for Catflap, who doubts whether even in 16 years' time prices will have recovered to their present peak level. That sounds much like the Japanese case - except I don't know how prices there today compare to the peak in '89 or '91 or whenever it was?

However all this is slightly off the point as far as the best timing for buying is concerned.

It's easy to confuse the crash with the subsequent slump.

While the slump could easily exceed a decade, given the unprecedented amount of "dammed debt water" this time, the crash itself will I think play itself out as quickly as last time, if not more quickly due to the internet etc. which accelerates the communication of information relevant to generating and perpetuating the plunge.

As a rule of thumb, how about saying that a "crash" officially ends when 80% of the descent from peak to trough has been attained? Looking at the HPC home page graph, that looks to have happened in 1992 last time. If you had the nominal-price version of that graph, I doubt prices actually fell any further than that at all - so you could argue that the crash was even shorter.

I feel that this definition is helpful for practical purposes as it means that it's fine to buy any time after the end of the crash, assuming you don't care about speculative profit (as I assume most forumites here don't care). In that case, the slump gives no cause for personal concern.

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While the slump could easily exceed a decade, given the unprecedented amount of "dammed debt water" this time, the crash itself will I think play itself out as quickly as last time, if not more quickly due to the internet etc. which accelerates the communication of information relevant to generating and perpetuating the plunge.

I think that for the crash to really happen the economy needs to deteriorate considerably.

Generally when house prices fall the economy suffers (consumer spending = 2/3s GDP) and unemployment goes up. This then knocks house prices and so the cycle goes.

It appears that this time around, whilst private sector employment is flat, public sector employment has grown. If GB hadn't created a further 1M+ jobs then unemployment would be 10%+ and for sure we wouldn't have house prices this high.

How many more jobs can GB create? If the answer is none, he's spent then it shouldn't be too long before further private sector jobs are lost, particularly in retail. However, if GB continues to replace lost private sector jobs with public sector jobs then I fail to see how we will get our crash, just a slow and gradual slump as affordability has been eroded so much.

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Yes well this is exactly what I am wondering....prehaps I am looking too far into the future.......

No, I think 2009 would presume a very quick crash, which although not impossible I think is slightly premature. I think that by 2011 we may see the bottom of the market but by then everyone will believe buying is a bad idea as a number of depressing years would have elapsed, so it will take a brave soul to purchase then. Again I may be wrong and we may see a Japanese style extracted crash lasting over a decade but by 2011 the biggest percentage falls, in my opinion, would have been realised.

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This may be stating the obvious...but if you are not in a position to buy, which is why you are saving for a deposit, you can wait a couple of years to see how the market unfolds.

The truth is nobody on this forum knows for sure. Your decision has been made my circumstance so wait and see. In the mean time save every spare penny you can.

Btw, even though I don't know for sure, I don't expect prices to rise or fall significantly by 2009..but as always it depends where you want to buy.

Edited by enworb

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buy it now - otherwise our European cousins will take it instead - its pretty clear look at the mortgage market in Europe - the whole thing is buy to let

that's because UK plc punters have been buying!!!

look at spain,bulgaria,france and so on.

UK folk have bought much of it on credit,so if we suffer,they will too!

the noteable exception is germany,because the press didn't tell them to go there!!!.....however it does have a better quality of life and cheaper property,but don't bother with BTL,because the majority of property here is already rented at fairly reasonable rates.

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How many more jobs can GB create? If the answer is none, he's spent then it shouldn't be too long before further private sector jobs are lost, particularly in retail. However, if GB continues to replace lost private sector jobs with public sector jobs then I fail to see how we will get our crash, just a slow and gradual slump as affordability has been eroded so much.

It is worth asking how Mr Boom has managed to create all those fiat jobs in the first place. The answer is - only by one or both of taxation and borrowing.

The former depletes the purchasing power of productive individuals, and hence tends to depress the housing market unless said individuals dive into an ocean of debt.

The latter only compounds the massive private debt with further massive national debt whose servicing requires the extraction of still more taxes.

Take your pick... but it can't go on forever.

Your final point is interesting and raises the Q of how to distinguish a crash from just a section of slump. Care to suggest a threshold for the gradient on the famous graph?

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If you're looking for a crash then you might be waiting a life time. A crash is unlikely but very slow growth over the next 10 years is more likely.

Personally if you can afford to buy then buy but don't expect to make much money for the next 15 years.

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If you're looking for a crash then you might be waiting a life time. A crash is unlikely but very slow growth over the next 10 years is more likely.

Personally if you can afford to buy then buy but don't expect to make much money for the next 15 years.

Sensible advice. And as the poster above said, if you're looking to buy in 2009 then save now (no bad thing) and worry about property in a couple of years... though if a crash comes i would expect key worker incentives to go fast and industrial action to soon follow.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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