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Realistbear

Monday On The Markets May Be Turbulent

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http://www.forbes.com/technology/ebusiness.../ap2929961.html

Associated Press

Lebanon Rejects Cease-Fire Resolution
By BASSEM MROUE , 08.06.2006, 08:11 AM
The Lebanese parliamentary speaker, a prominent
Shiite
who has been negotiating on behalf of Hezbollah, rejected the U.S.-French draft U.N. cease-fire resolution on Sunday because it did not include the government's plan for ending the fighting.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/5249810.stm

Last Updated: Sunday, 6 August 2006, 09:30 GMT 10:30 UK

Iran to ignore nuclearP resolution
Iran has vowed to pursue its nuclear programme, in its first official response to last week's UN resolution urging it to curb nuclear activities.

Shell, BP, Total might do well. UKCoal looks like a winner also. Gold?????

:o

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http://www.forbes.com/technology/ebusiness.../ap2929961.html

Associated Press

Lebanon Rejects Cease-Fire Resolution
By BASSEM MROUE , 08.06.2006, 08:11 AM
The Lebanese parliamentary speaker, a prominent
Shiite
who has been negotiating on behalf of Hezbollah, rejected the U.S.-French draft U.N. cease-fire resolution on Sunday because it did not include the government's plan for ending the fighting.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/5249810.stm

Last Updated: Sunday, 6 August 2006, 09:30 GMT 10:30 UK

Iran to ignore nuclearP resolution
Iran has vowed to pursue its nuclear programme, in its first official response to last week's UN resolution urging it to curb nuclear activities.

Shell, BP, Total might do well. UKCoal looks like a winner also. Gold?????

:o

a prominent Shiite :o

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http://www.forbes.com/technology/ebusiness.../ap2929961.html

Associated Press

Lebanon Rejects Cease-Fire Resolution
By BASSEM MROUE , 08.06.2006, 08:11 AM
The Lebanese parliamentary speaker, a prominent
Shiite
who has been negotiating on behalf of Hezbollah, rejected the U.S.-French draft U.N. cease-fire resolution on Sunday because it did not include the government's plan for ending the fighting.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/5249810.stm

Last Updated: Sunday, 6 August 2006, 09:30 GMT 10:30 UK

Iran to ignore nuclearP resolution
Iran has vowed to pursue its nuclear programme, in its first official response to last week's UN resolution urging it to curb nuclear activities.

Shell, BP, Total might do well. UKCoal looks like a winner also. Gold?????

:o

I don't think this news will have any effect. The fact that the draft resolutions exists and has been agreed by the 'big boys' is probably a positive move in the eyes of the market.

More interesting this week will be any economic data from US or UK (not sure what due to be released).

AFP

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Fed meets:

August

8

September

20

October

24/25

December

12

Despite the softening jobs market my bet is on another hike this Tuesday. That will rattle the DOW as last week's rally was based on the assumption that Ben is going to chill out for awhile.

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Fed meets:

August

8

September

20

October

24/25

December

12

Despite the softening jobs market my bet is on another hike this Tuesday. That will rattle the DOW as last week's rally was based on the assumption that Ben is going to chill out for awhile.

An interesting week coming up then. With all the talk about money supply, it almost seems that the fed needs to raise rates from a certain strategic point-of-view, but at the same time, from a shorter-term US economy point of view needs to leave things as they are.

I don't know the depth are the 'real' problems caused by the Bond situation and the dollars precarious position on the world scene, but its seems that the fed are going to be pulled in a few directions this week depending on which dangers they fear most for the future.

I personally feel there could be a rise if the underlying situation is as serious as some commentators suggest. What about you RB?

AFP

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An interesting week coming up then. With all the talk about money supply, it almost seems that the fed needs to raise rates from a certain strategic point-of-view, but at the same time, from a shorter-term US economy point of view needs to leave things as they are.

I don't know the depth are the 'real' problems caused by the Bond situation and the dollars precarious position on the world scene, but its seems that the fed are going to be pulled in a few directions this week depending on which dangers they fear most for the future.

I personally feel there could be a rise if the underlying situation is as serious as some commentators suggest. What about you RB?

AFP

I agree that its the underlying features that Ben will look at. He is afraid of the housing market crashing too quickly although I suspect he will allow the frothy markets to sink and hope that Middle America will see a soft landing. Our lads at the BoE have seen something they don't like and I am certain that the US has the same problem. THe huge increases in the price of non-discretionaries are going to work their way into the system eventually and we may be seeing the first signs of real inflation as a result. If the CPI is anywhere near 3%, which is a mild reaction to price increases IMO, the Fed and BoE are going to have several more hikes to go. This is why I am bearish on stocks at the moment. The US fund managers are too and they control quite a large chunk of change that can drive the markets in either direction.

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Big week coming up:

http://uk.us.biz.yahoo.com/ft/060806/fto08...43191.html?.v=1

FT.com

The Week in the UK

Sunday August 6, 10:40 am ET

The Bank of England looks at the prospects for inflation, official manufacturing and trade data are released and the FT publishes its exclusive house price survey.
The Bank of England's quarterly inflation report on Wednesday is the key economic release this week. This sets out the projections on which the monetary policy committee bases its interest rate decisions for the next two years. Last week's interest rate rise suggests the Bank fears inflation will continue to come in above target.
On Monday the Office for National Statistics issues manufacturing production data, the CBI publishes its regional trends survey and the British Retail Consortium gives its assessment of high street sales in July.
UK trade figures for June are out on Wednesday. Analysts will be scrutinising the data closely after May's second highest trade deficit.
On Friday the Financial Times publishes the latest edition of its house price survey - the most accurate guide to the real trends in property prices in England and Wales.

What if the CPI is up, manufacturing down, trade data shows increasing deficit and HPI is still up (in the South at least)?

Much higher IR to come but at the risk of pre-empting the Fed's action that will push the US into recession. What a mess.

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FTSE 100 (FSI:^FTSE) Edit

Index Value: 5,833.30

Trade Time: 8:27AM

Change: Down 56.10 (0.95%)

Prev Close: 5,889.40

Open: 5,889.40

Day's Range: 5,826.00 - 5,889.40

52wk Range: 5,130.90 - 6,137.10

BP have shut down (strategic profit enhancement) one of their refineries pushing oil up to $76. Doubt over Ben's next move--coming up on Tuesday when the FOMC meet. War intensifying in Lebanon and Iran telling the UN to get stuffed over the nuclear issue.

^ATX ATX (Austria) 3,729.63 9:07 Down -24.10 (-0.64%) Chart, News, Components, more...

^BFX BEL-20 (Belgium) 3,786.63 9:07 Down -41.91 (-1.09%) Chart, Components, more...

^OMXC20C ^OMXC20C N/A 1 Jul, 2003 0.00 (0.00%) more...

^FCHI CAC 40 (France) 4,974.38 9:07 Down -66.57 (-1.32%) Chart, News, Components, more...

^GDAXI DAX (Germany) 5,663.12 8:52 Down -59.91 (-1.05%)

Edited by Realistbear

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Recession appears to be next--the death of Gordon's Miracle Economy is imminent:

http://uk.biz.yahoo.com//07082006/214/lond...tsie-lower.html

Monday August 7, 09:10 AM

London open: Commodities drag Footsie lower
LONDON (ShareCast) - London's top flight shares plummeted at the opening bell, sparked by concerns that the US economy is slowing and weak commodity stocks.

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BP have shut down (strategic profit enhancement) one of their refineries pushing oil up to $76.

RB - interested to know what 'strategic profit enhancement' is?

Gooner

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RB - interested to know what 'strategic profit enhancement' is?

Gooner

It seems that every time oil starts to drop in price an "emergency" arises. Oil leak in a single BP refinery in Alaska and oil goes up $2bbl. Stiff breeze in the Caribbean and up it goes. Oil company SPEs are used to keep oil prices high and it seems to work everytime. :ph34r:

Edited by Realistbear

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It seems that every time oil starts to drop in price an "emergency" arises. Oil leak in a single BP refinery in Alaska and oil goes up $2bbl. Stiff breeze in the Caribbean and up it goes. Oil company SPEs are used to keep oil prices high and it seems to work everytime. :ph34r:

don't really subscribe to that myself - especially on the basis of evidence presented here above. Firstly, the oil leak is in one of the flowlines serving the Prudoe Bay Oil field in Alaska, not a refinery. It's the largest in the US (1/8th of total production) and one of BP's largest assets. I can assure you, it would not make economic sense to any oil company to shut in an oil field of that size for any length of time, let alone the unspecified amount of time this field could be down for. You only shut down an oil field in an emergency (or hint of one) and for major maintanence, which is planned years in advance.

In addition, last time I checked, BP couldn't control the weather (Enron tried that !), and since they were kicked out of Iran 30 years back, not sure they control much there either.

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don't really subscribe to that myself - especially on the basis of evidence presented here above. Firstly, the oil leak is in one of the flowlines serving the Prudoe Bay Oil field in Alaska, not a refinery. It's the largest in the US (1/8th of total production) and one of BP's largest assets. I can assure you, it would not make economic sense to any oil company to shut in an oil field of that size for any length of time, let alone the unspecified amount of time this field could be down for. You only shut down an oil field in an emergency (or hint of one) and for major maintanence, which is planned years in advance.

In addition, last time I checked, BP couldn't control the weather (Enron tried that !), and since they were kicked out of Iran 30 years back, not sure they control much there either.

BP shut down in Alaska and oil soars on the futures markets making big profits for someone:

http://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory?id=2282250

NEW YORK Aug 7, 2006 (AP)— The shutdown of a major Alaskan oil field sent oil prices sharply higher Monday and prompted investors to sell stocks on inflation fears, one day before the Federal Reserve's next decision on interest rates.

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Ouch!

FTSE 100 (FSI:^FTSE) Edit

Index Value: 5,828.80

Trade Time: 4:36PM

Change: Down 60.60 (1.03%)

Prev Close: 5,889.40

Open: 5,889.40

Day's Range: 5,820.90 - 5,889.40

52wk Range: 5,130.90 - 6,137.10

CAC 40 (France) 4,956.34 16:48 Down -84.61 (-1.68%)

^GDAXI DAX (Germany) 5,627.29 16:33 Down -95.74 (-1.67%)

http://uk.biz.yahoo.com/07082006/325/oil-s...a-shutdown.html

Oil soars above $76 on Alaska shutdown
LONDON (Reuters) - U.S. crude surged $2 to above $76 a barrel on Monday as BP (LSE: BP.L - news) began shutting an Alaskan field that pumps 8 percent of U.S. oil and anxiety over the Middle East, supplier of almost a third of the world's oil, ran high.

More profits for BP, Shell, Total and Exxon. Now if only they could get a hurricane or two going..... <_<

Edited by Realistbear

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http://www.tiscali.co.uk/news/newswire.php...y_template.html

LONDON (Reuters) - Damage to BP’s Alaskan pipelines is likely to
take months to repair
and shows how the world’s ageing oil infrastructure is straining to cope with rising demand, analysts and experts said on Monday.
U.S. crude rose as much as $2.09 a barrel to $76.85 as BP shut down the biggest oilfield in the United States, Alaska’s 400,000 barrels per day Prudhoe Bay, due to pipeline corrosion.

$100bbl might speed up the repairs? <_<

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don't really subscribe to that myself - especially on the basis of evidence presented here above. Firstly, the oil leak is in one of the flowlines serving the Prudoe Bay Oil field in Alaska, not a refinery. It's the largest in the US (1/8th of total production) and one of BP's largest assets. I can assure you, it would not make economic sense to any oil company to shut in an oil field of that size for any length of time, let alone the unspecified amount of time this field could be down for. You only shut down an oil field in an emergency (or hint of one) and for major maintanence, which is planned years in advance.

In addition, last time I checked, BP couldn't control the weather (Enron tried that !), and since they were kicked out of Iran 30 years back, not sure they control much there either.

I agree with RB there are vested interests that will not let it go below $70, watch and rad the news and keep an eye on the prices just when it seems to be dropping something else happens.

In fact I read an article on it a while back and kept an eye on oil, events and the timing since, the guy that wrote the article was imo onto something.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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