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Guest Shedfish

..i've seen this place mentioned and referred to quite a lot in the posts, but it seems to be missing from the 'Resources' section -

home.co.uk

just in case other newbies like me are missing it, it's really useful - not great on the 'News' section, but it does have some fascinating data when you drill down by town (here)

..also the 'property search' section pulls in data from most of the web based property sales, and opens them in a new window...

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..i've seen this place mentioned and referred to quite a lot in the posts, but it seems to be missing from the 'Resources' section -

home.co.uk

just in case other newbies like me are missing it, it's really useful - not great on the 'News' section, but it does have some fascinating data when you drill down by town (here)

..also the 'property search' section pulls in data from most of the web based property sales, and opens them in a new window...

I like it too. I hope they show trends for asking prices too eventually. ;)

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Good find.

Interestingly, I checked out quite a few towns known to me and in every case flats are showing significant falls - as much as 28% in Cambridge. A sign that FTB's have deserted the market and that BTL's are no longer buying?

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Guest Shedfish

..absolutely - i've seen falls, in detatched / semis too, in places, in places where median and mean are similar (i.e. no £1M anomalies)

another interesting feature is the 'Selling Prices by Month' links under the 'by town' chart links -

assuming that all data for May is complete (based on Land Registry figures!), there looks to have been something like a 20% fall in completed sales, more or less across the board, when the sales in question are from the spring 'rush'!

in the town i'm looking at moving to, it's more like a 40% drop in completions

hmmm...

Edited by Shedfish

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I have a friend in Guildford who told me I was "mad" to sell my property. He knew BTL investors' who "knew" what they were doing, and they were buying.

I looked at some of these deals, but quite simply the numbers didn't add up. A 4% yield isn't an investment.

Strangely, it looks like prices in Guildford have fallen 7% in the last year...

:unsure::unsure:

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Guest Shedfish

it's nuts! i have no idea what these BTL-ers think they're doing.

i recently moved due to some serious renovation required on my old flat, which was in a really nice spot, but on which the rent had not gone up in over 5 years.

moved into a much bigger but less salubrious flat for 50 a month more, twice the number of rooms. i know how much he paid for it, and have no idea how the rent i pay (370 a month) covers even an interest only mortgage. (interest on my savings knocks me another 100 or so off my rent every month)

the old place was so structurally run down the old landlord, who's only owned the place for a year or so, has had to take the whole roof off, replace the water and heating for 6 flats (seriously, i saw the skips). i believe it's a listed building, so he's probably not buying the materials from Do It All at a knock down price...

as an aside - a friend of mine and his wife have just had a baby. they have a huge house (of which i'm most envious), and a huge mortgage (1900 pm, of which i'm not envious). i think they're covered, due to foreplanning, but i imagine they're in a minority on that score.

i have a gut feeling that we're just watching the beginning of the race to the exits

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Semi Detached housing where I live showing a drop over the last year from £160,745 to £118,900 a drop of 26%, flats are down 19% with Terraced and Detatched housing static.

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Guest Shedfish

christ on a bike - note the extra 0 on the graphs...!

chelsea's streets must be paved with gold, at the very least :)

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KT11 is through the roof too by those stats

Picking semis, so as to avoid footballer houses, up 46% in the last year - allowing for some more expensive semis, I should say they are up at least 25% in the last year across the board.... (detached houses were up 65% on average, but that's skewed by mock-Georgian palaces being knocked up.....).

Semi £270,000 £395,000 +46%

Which is a problem for the 'bottom' end of the market as you need to be on it to move up it - most of these semis are about 1,100 sqfoot small 3 bed semis with no garage, no front garden and no offstreet parking and it includes the 'cheaper' Crown Estate houses (similar to ex-council).

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On second thoughts....most properties in chelsea are flats (more than 80%!!)...so ignore the overall average.

Flats average down 20% median down 11%

Those are rather significant figures! ;)

Only if you know what sold and where - K&C have had large new builds that went up last year.... they will have skewed the figures up last year and it would not take many sales of the ex-council flats (of which there are loads in K&C) to affect the average. The interesting thing is that volume remained stable - I should expect any falls in price to be preceded by a period of low volumes of sales as prices totter and people refuse to sell at a 'loss' [read, less than next door did], then a glut as they get forced - that's not showing so I have to think it's different styles and prices of flats - as you say Chelsea is mostly flats, but because of the broad range of prices, it's hard to say that the flats are like for like in price..

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Only if you know what sold and where - K&C have had large new builds that went up last year.... they will have skewed the figures up last year and it would not take many sales of the ex-council flats (of which there are loads in K&C) to affect the average. The interesting thing is that volume remained stable - I should expect any falls in price to be preceded by a period of low volumes of sales as prices totter and people refuse to sell at a 'loss' [read, less than next door did], then a glut as they get forced - that's not showing so I have to think it's different styles and prices of flats - as you say Chelsea is mostly flats, but because of the broad range of prices, it's hard to say that the flats are like for like in price..

Good point Rachman,

I agree you need to see a 'pause' before a downturn. Perhaps late 2004/early2005 was it

See: http://www.home.co.uk/guides/house_prices_...mp;endyear=2006

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Good point Rachman,

I agree you need to see a 'pause' before a downturn. Perhaps late 2004/early2005 was it

See: http://www.home.co.uk/guides/house_prices_...mp;endyear=2006

I looked at volumes in bolton over the weekend - sod all is selling above £250K, the agents have plenty of property for sale at £500K plus, but apart from Amir Khan's new house, there has been minimal activity at the top end of the market and even if you drop the range to about £250K to £400K, it's been flat for about 18 months..... - e.g my cousin took £365K in mid 2003 for her house, the buyer has spent an easy £40K on it plus transaction and finance costs, he's struggling to sell it now for £400K....

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I looked at volumes in bolton over the weekend - sod all is selling above £250K, the agents have plenty of property for sale at £500K plus, but apart from Amir Khan's new house, there has been minimal activity at the top end of the market and even if you drop the range to about £250K to £400K, it's been flat for about 18 months..... - e.g my cousin took £365K in mid 2003 for her house, the buyer has spent an easy £40K on it plus transaction and finance costs, he's struggling to sell it now for £400K....

Bolton is one of those places that have had considerable BTL activity. I expect that those types of areas will suffer the most in the correction.

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Bolton is one of those places that have had considerable BTL activity. I expect that those types of areas will suffer the most in the correction.

Yes, but almost all of the BTL has been in 2 up 2 downs because they are cheap (and I think we both know who most of the BTL landlords are in those areas - undeclared cash and not a proper BTL mortgage, nothing declared and still living with their parents........) - there are very few people into the 'safer' 3 bed semis and renting them out.... -it also staggered me just how the developers are trying to price their newbuilds up in BL7 and BL6 for north of £600K and often nearer to £800K - there are not the wages around to sustain them - the prices they are trying to get are the same as Knutsford....

i was amused by the sheer volume of to let boards in the executive flats near St Edmunds though - are the rumours true about them being the new 'rented' knocking shops - I am sure that's not quite the same sort of executive stress relief they had in mind.....

Edited by Rachman

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Yes, but almost all of the BTL has been in 2 up 2 downs because they are cheap (and I think we both know who most of the BTL landlords are in those areas - undeclared cash and not a proper BTL mortgage, nothing declared and still living with their parents........) - there are very few people into the 'safer' 3 bed semis and renting them out.... -it also staggered me just how the developers are trying to price their newbuilds up in BL7 and BL6 for north of £600K and often nearer to £800K - there are not the wages around to sustain them - the prices they are trying to get are the same as Knutsford....

£600-800K is bonkers! Maybe they are trying to cash in on the 'lets move to the country darling' brigade but the weather is sh1t and the crime horrendous...few jobs and soon to be less of them.

Overall, Bolton looks like its peaked...

http://www.home.co.uk/guides/house_prices_...mp;endyear=2006

like Halifax and many other former mill towns where the BTLers were rabid.

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http://www.home.co.uk/guides/house_prices_...mp;endyear=2006

like Halifax and many other former mill towns where the BTLers were rabid.

I talked to one developer who was telling me that his was a bargain for 2,500 sqfoot for £750K in mock stone and on a full 0.17 acre (!) plot with one garage and no front garden and less than three feet to next door's wall. He was serious in thinking he's going to get it - not even quality build either - push fit plumbing, anything that was hidden was middle market no more and probably worth about £480K tops (good location on edge of moors below tree line). He says he's happy to hold out and wait. I wish[ed] him luck.

I notice from that chart the volumes are down by about 30% and more across the higher end of the market (detached) - they are still lowish averagees though - for the places you want to live, rather than have to live, £250K is the benchmark even in bolton now - the house I sold for £165K in 2000 is now worth (as next door recently sold and was identical) for £280K..... - I considered that an average home. Low volumes, sticking property, strikes me as difficult trading - the house I grew up in is up at £635K - it won't sell for that - it's worth no more than £500K - seller won't reduce price and is hawking it round different agents..... been out there 6 months at least.

Per sq foot he wants more than sellers in stockbroker Surrey want - which is why they have to fall and BIG.

Edited by Rachman

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I talked to one developer who was telling me that his was a bargain for 2,500 sqfoot for £750K in mock stone and on a full 0.17 acre (!) plot with one garage and no front garden and less than three feet to next door's wall. He was serious in thinking he's going to get it - not even quality build either - push fit plumbing, anything that was hidden was middle market no more and probably worth about £480K tops (good location on edge of moors below tree line). He says he's happy to hold out and wait. I wish[ed] him luck.

I notice from that chart the volumes are down by about 30% and more across the higher end of the market (detached) - they are still lowish averagees though - for the places you want to live, rather than have to live, £250K is the benchmark even in bolton now - the house I sold for £165K in 2000 is now worth (as next door recently sold and was identical) for £280K..... - I considered that an average home. Low volumes, sticking property, strikes me as difficult trading - the house I grew up in is up at £635K - it won't sell for that - it's worth no more than £500K - seller won't reduce price and is hawking it round different agents..... been out there 6 months at least.

Per sq foot he wants more than sellers in stockbroker Surrey want - which is why they have to fall and BIG.

There's some kind of footballer hero bought a 2.5milllion abode near us. It was a quaint (in the nicest sense) farm house on a bleak moor. Grit blasting, security lights to shame Stallag 19, dogs, swimming pool and lots of black marble...its pure 'upmarket chav'.

This kind of makeover and marketing works...so it seems.

But we are talking of the minority...FTBers will have their day!

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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