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Interest Rates Forecast

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http://members.cox.net/dmrc/InterestRates/UK_Rates.htm

So, how accurate is this projection likely to be? What information do they use to generate it?

It's the market swap rates, I.e. the yield they demand for expire at that date. Swap rates do change daily, so these figures are accurate as of today.

If you knock off 0.25% that indicates the BoE base rate.

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It's the market swap rates, I.e. the yield they demand for expire at that date. Swap rates do change daily, so these figures are accurate as of today.

If you knock off 0.25% that indicates the BoE base rate.

So the market is currently predicting only 1 or 2 more 0.25% rises over the next 12 months... interesting! How did this chart look a few months ago? Was the base rate rise this week a surprise or had the market seen it coming?

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So the market is currently predicting only 1 or 2 more 0.25% rises over the next 12 months... interesting! How did this chart look a few months ago? Was the base rate rise this week a surprise or had the market seen it coming?

No, the markets had priced it in, hence the reason why lots of people were saying it is no surprise at all.

I'm personally amazed how the media have reacted to the news, the consensus was it was a surprise. But that's only because they got it dismally wrong. I'm a little shocked to peoples reactions (e.g. BBC have your say), I think 5% rates will be a big shock.

Who wants to bet when that will happen?

My bet: Because it's such an important decision it will be done during an inflation outlook meeting, e.g. August, November, February or May. I doubt Nov will bring about a rise, two new doves and just before Xmas? No way. February it is then!

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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