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jonewer

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Surely what what Bush and Chirac agree is irrelevant too.

Israel doesn't seem to care what anyone thinks.

France will have to provide the bulk of any peacekeeping force.

Israel survives on US military aid. They have to obey their US masters or be annihilated.

Britain can do nothing.

It must really pain Bliar that after so many years of licking Bush's bottom that his opinion doesnt matter a jot.

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Surely what what Bush and Chirac agree is irrelevant too.

Israel doesn't seem to care what anyone thinks.

I think that is right. Neither do Hezbollah and the forces that want Israel wiped off the map. A cease-fire just puts off the the showdown at the OK corrall. Hezbollah is not going to stop and neither are its backers. They have been stockpiling missiles for this current war and I am certain it was not just for a few weeks of exchanging missiles for smart bombs. Long term, its Israel or the radical Mullahs. Bottom line: who controls the oil, the Mullahs or the forces willling to co-operate with the west and who enjoy the largesse that flows from that relationship. For one, Saudi does NOT want rule by Mullah as their aristocracy is made up of hundreds of "princes" and a Hezbollah victory means the rich sheiks gets replaced with Mullahs with no tolerance for their infidel ways. Dubai are investing billions in resorts, golf courses, the world's tallest building, casinos etc and the last thing they want is a Mullah crack down on anything that resembles worldy "pleasures."

Edited by Realistbear

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IN the meantime:

http://uk.news.yahoo.com/05082006/356/rock...haifa-tyre.html

Rocket attacks strike Haifa and Tyre
ITN Saturday August 5, 02:15 PM
Rocket attacks have continued across the Israel - Lebanon border with both sides inevitably experiencing more bloodshed.
A barrage of Hezbollah rockets fired from Lebanon wounded five people north of the Israeli city of Haifa, while overnight Israeli jets had struck the Palestinian refugee camp of Rashidiyeh south of Tyre.
Hezbollah has stepped up rocket attacks in recent days and guerrillas have now fired more 2,500 rockets into northern Israel, killing 30 civilians.

Better to end it or it will be back again next year. 2,500 rockets to kill 30 people?

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I think that is right. Neither do Hezbollah and the forces that want Israel wiped off the map. A cease-fire just puts off the the showdown at the OK corrall. Hezbollah is not going to stop and neither are its backers. They have been stockpiling missiles for this current war and I am certain it was not just for a few weeks of exchanging missiles for smart bombs. Long term, its Israel or the radical Mullahs. Bottom line: who controls the oil, the Mullahs or the forces willling to co-operate with the west and who enjoy the largesse that flows from that relationship. For one, Saudi does NOT want rule by Mullah as their aristocracy is made up of hundreds of "princes" and a Hezbollah victory means the rich sheiks gets replaced with Mullahs with no tolerance for their infidel ways. Dubai are investing billions in resorts, golf courses, the world's tallest building, casinos etc and the last thing they want is a Mullah crack down on anything that resembles worldy "pleasures."

While I agree with you to an extent you present a false dichotomy here. The choice is not between Isreal and a bunch of nutty jihadists. It is a choice between supporting Israel at any cost, no matter what, or supporting budding Arab democracies like Lebanon used to be until not so many weeks ago. A far more logical choice of action would be to render military aid to the lebanese government to help them get rid of Hezbollah.

The best way of eliminating radical islamists "the mullahs" as you call them, is to establish, strong, stable, prosperous, liberal (with a small 'L'), materialistic, capitalist democracies in the middle east.

Israel has pursued a quite deliberate policy of destroying Lebanon's infrastructure and demonstrating to the Lebanese that their new-fangled democracticaly elected government can't do shiat to protect them from Israeli aggression. Let me ask you this- Who is going to come out of this the stronger- Hezbollah or Lebanon's democratically elected government?

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While I agree with you to an extent you present a false dichotomy here. The choice is not between Isreal and a bunch of nutty jihadists. It is a choice between supporting Israel at any cost, no matter what, or supporting budding Arab democracies like Lebanon used to be until not so many weeks ago. A far more logical choice of action would be to render military aid to the lebanese government to help them get rid of Hezbollah.

The best way of eliminating radical islamists "the mullahs" as you call them, is to establish, strong, stable, prosperous, liberal (with a small 'L'), materialistic, capitalist democracies in the middle east.

Israel has pursued a quite deliberate policy of destroying Lebanon's infrastructure and demonstrating to the Lebanese that their new-fangled democracticaly elected government can't do shiat to protect them from Israeli aggression. Let me ask you this- Who is going to come out of this the stronger- Hezbollah or Lebanon's democratically elected government?

Tried that in Iraq. They don't want to to know. The power in the ME is not those seeking democracy but the Jihadists or Mullahs. IMO, they see this as the time to strike the West by eliminating Israel first and then establishing Mullah rule throughout the region.

"Democracy" is uniquely western and alien to Middle Eastern culture. Even Egypt, a moderate Arab nation, has a president who tends to stay in power until he has a son or is assasinated. Ditto Jordan.

Israel can only survive by destroying those who seek to destroy it. What is at stake is what groupings control ME oil. If the Shias unite they will be a formidable force. As of right now, the Sunnis are preventing a united front by massacring Shias in Iraq on a daily basis. If Iran and Syra become dominant the Sunnis will be ethnically cleansed.

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Tried that in Iraq. They don't want to to know. The power in the ME is not those seeking democracy but the Jihadists or Mullahs. IMO, they see this as the time to strike the West by eliminating Israel first and then establishing Mullah rule throughout the region.

"Democracy" is uniquely western and alien to Middle Eastern culture. Even Egypt, a moderate Arab nation, has a president who tends to stay in power until he has a son or is assasinated. Ditto Jordan.

Israel can only survive by destroying those who seek to destroy it. What is at stake is what groupings control ME oil. If the Shias unite they will be a formidable force. As of right now, the Sunnis are preventing a united front by massacring Shias in Iraq on a daily basis. If Iran and Syra become dominant the Sunnis will be ethnically cleansed.

Who doesnt want to know?

https://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/le.html

The assassination of former Prime Minister Rafiq HARIRI and 20 others in February 2005 led to massive demonstrations in Beirut against the Syrian presence ("the Cedar Revolution"). Syria finally withdrew the remainder of its military forces from Lebanon in April 2005. In May-June 2005, Lebanon held its first legislative elections since the end of the civil war free of foreign interference, handing a two-thirds majority to the bloc led by Saad HARIRI, the slain prime minister's son.

Lebanon was a functioning democracy that had succesfully kicked Syria out of their affairs and was working to dissipate Hezbollah's popular powerbase in the south. Until a few weeks ago that is..........

There is absolutely nothing to indicate that the vast majority of the Lebanese wanted anything more than the quiet life. You simply cannot tar an entire region of the world with the same brush.

Edited by jonewer

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"Democracy" is uniquely western and alien to Middle Eastern culture. Even Egypt, a moderate Arab nation, has a president who tends to stay in power until he has a son or is assasinated. Ditto Jordan.

Japan?

South Korea?

South Africa?

Brazil?

India!

and many more...

Nevermind recent dictatorships in Europe: in the 20th century alone, Italy, Greece, Germany, Spain, Portgual (all western powers!)

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Who doesnt want to know?

https://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/le.html

Lebanon was a functioning democracy that had succesfully kicked Syria out of their affairs and was working to dissipate Hezbollah's popular powerbase in the south. Until a few weeks ago that is..........

There is absolutely nothing to indicate that the vast majority of the Lebanese wanted anything more than the quiet life. You simply cannot tar an entire region of the world with the same brush.

I agree with you on Lebanon. Moderation has been their history for centuries. But the power brokers are more sinister, Iran and Syria. Sadly, the Hezbollah bought their way into Lebanon by providing social services, hospitals, infrastructure all from money supplied from the extremist nations. Its a LONG range plan. Hezbollah are being supplied the arms to drag Israel into Lebanon at which time they will launch a massive counterattack with their reserve troops and they will hope the rest of the world will stand by to watch Israel get defeated because of all the "innocent" civilians that have died from Israeli bombs. Truth is that Hezbollah knew this would happen as it is not possible for Israel to get to them unless they bomb and unless Lebanaese become the collateral damage. The Lebanese are , in effect, the human shield that Hezbollah knew Israel would not regard.

Japan?

South Korea?

South Africa?

Brazil?

India!

and many more...

Nevermind recent dictatorships in Europe: in the 20th century alone, Italy, Greece, Germany, Spain, Portgual (all western powers!)

Japan began to model itself on the West in the mid 19th Century. Same with Korea. India? Guess who westernised that country?

I am really referring to a mindset that is "Western" rather than a geographical location. Australia is not in the West but is Western.

The power brokers in the ME are not democratically minded but "Theocracies" that have no regard for elections. Saudi has most to lose if the Mullahs take over and that is the only reason they remain West "friendly" while hating us behind our backs. If the Mullahs takeover the Sheiks are history.

Edited by Realistbear

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I agree with you on Lebanon. Moderation has been their history for centuries. But the power brokers are more sinister, Iran and Syria. Sadly, the Hezbollah bought their way into Lebanon by providing social services, hospitals, infrastructure all from money supplied from the extremist nations. Its a LONG range plan. Hezbollah are being supplied the arms to drag Israel into Lebanon at which time they will launch a massive counterattack with their reserve troops and they will hope the rest of the world will stand by to watch Israel get defated because of all the "innocent" civilains that have died from Israeli bombs. Truth is that Hezbollah knew this would happen as it is not possible for Israel to get to them unless they bomb and unless Lebanaese become the collateral damage. THe Lebanese are , in effect, the human shiled that Hezbollah knew Israel would not regard.

Yes. And who is the current invasion/bombardment helping? The moderate Lebanese or Syria and Iran (whom I agree are the powers behind Hezbollah).

I am not saying that Hezbollah is good or that they should be allowed to continue. What I am saying is that the way Israel are going about it is altogether counter-productive. Like you say, Hezbollah knew this would happen. The Israelis have played right into their hands. They must be rubbing their hands with glee!

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"full cessation of hostilities",

The word that the IRA used as I recall and which the UK gov didn't like and are now using it themselves.

Couldn't make it up.

:blink:

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Yes. And who is the current invasion/bombardment helping? The moderate Lebanese or Syria and Iran (whom I agree are the powers behind Hezbollah).

I am not saying that Hezbollah is good or that they should be allowed to continue. What I am saying is that the way Israel are going about it is altogether counter-productive. Like you say, Hezbollah knew this would happen. The Israelis have played right into their hands. They must be rubbing their hands with glee!

I thinks its very sad that Israel have been left to their bombing campaigns by our governments and the UN. There are now whole generations of Lebanese people who will be anti-israeli for the rest of their lives and whilst not automatically making them pro-hezbollah, they must be seeing alot more support for their movement as more civilian centres get pounded.

All this talk about finding a lasting peace is crap. There's decades of ramifications to come from all this.

AFP

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Japan began to model itself on the West in the mid 19th Century. Same with Korea. India? Guess who westernised that country?

I am really referring to a mindset that is "Western" rather than a geographical location. Australia is not in the West but is Western.

Most of Europe was not democratic in the 19th century. Britain certainly was not: universal male suffrage came in 1918 and universal suffrage in 1928.

Real modern widespread democracy only took root in Europe in the 20th century. Of course, there were philosophers who paved the way well before then, but the same is true in the Middle East.

Even in the "craddle" of Western civilisation, ancient Greece, many cities were not democracies and they were notdemocracies in the modern sense; slaves, property qualification, male only suffrage.

There is nothing about the middle east which precludes democracies taking route there.

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I thinks its very sad that Israel have been left to their bombing campaigns by our governments and the UN. There are now whole generations of Lebanese people who will be anti-israeli for the rest of their lives and whilst not automatically making them pro-hezbollah, they must be seeing alot more support for their movement as more civilian centres get pounded.

All this talk about finding a lasting peace is crap. There's decades of ramifications to come from all this.

AFP

IMO, this was the plan all along. Infiltrate moderate Lebanon and then use their civilian zones from which to launch missiles into Israel. The night shots show Hezbollah rocket lauchers parked in car parks next to housing and high rise flats. Why not launch from open ground where counteratacks from Israeli jets would not harm the Lebanese. Ah--that would not work as that would simply defeat hezbollah and rob them of the publicity of all those dead Lebanese caught in the collateral damage.

Israel did the right thing by leafletting the areas to be bombed 48 hours in advance. With thousands of rockets raining down on them every day there was no choice but to use smart bombs to try to hit the missile laucnhers wherever they were.

Bottom line, there is decades of bad blood and the goal of destroying Israel remains the top priority of the extremists. That they use the Lebanese to accomplish there goal is the REAL crime. They got bought by Extremist money and now they are paying the price.

Most of Europe was not democratic in the 19th century. Britain certainly was not: universal male suffrage came in 1918 and universal suffrage in 1928.

Real modern widespread democracy only took root in Europe in the 20th century. Of course, there were philosophers who paved the way well before then, but the same is true in the Middle East.

Even in the "craddle" of Western civilisation, ancient Greece, many cities were not democracies and they were notdemocracies in the modern sense; slaves, property qualification, male only suffrage.

There is nothing about the middle east which precludes democracies taking route there.

True, democracy really doesn't exit. It may have worked in the City States of the Greek Empire for a short while until Sparta decided it was not a good idea. There isn't any true democracy around today. We delegate rule to a politican who may or may nor represent the individual voter's wishes.

With the Middle East, it is so poor as far as the masses are concerned that dictaroship or rule by Mullah is inevitable. Money is concentrated in the hands of very few in the Oil rich Arab states and if people could vote the Sheiks and Mullahs would be on their bikes.

Edited by Realistbear

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http://www.energybulletin.net/18904.html

This is a rather interesting report on the situation. The really interesting bit (if it's true):

Even worse news, potentially, comes from Saudi Arabia, where oil flows have shrunk by some 400,000 barrels per day over the past few months, despite astronomic prices. No one knows for sure what is going on. The Saudis themselves say the production cuts are due to lack of demand, but this hardly seems plausible, unless the kingdom is only able to deliver unwanted heavy, sour crude to market—but even in that case, one would expect flows to increase, with a price discount factored in for resource quality.

At the same time, the Saudis are hiring just about every spare drilling rig in the world, resulting in a dramatically falling rig count in the Gulf of Mexico—a place that would otherwise be seeing an increasing count, given the fact that Mexico’s giant Cantarell field is in now in steep decline, with dire implications for the nation’s economy.

Matthew Simmons (Twilight in the Desert) has been insisting for the past few years that Saudi production is close to peak and that Ghawar, the world’s biggest field, may be in decline. Now many others are speculating that this is the real reason for the falling production figures.

What happens next? It depends on the real condition of Ghawar. Perhaps a heroic drilling campaign could result in a temporary bloom in production, lasting perhaps three years, followed by a swift, terminal collapse. On the other hand, it is possible that the field has been so thoroughly exploited already that we are seeing the irreversible, rapid decline. At the ASPO conference a well-connected industry insider who wishes not to be directly quoted told me that his own sources inside Saudi Arabia insist that production from Ghawar is now down to less than three million barrels per day, and that the Saudis are maintaining total production at only slowly dwindling levels by producing other fields at maximum rates. This, if true, would be a bombshell: most estimates give production from Ghawar at 5.5 Mb/d.

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True, democracy really doesn't exit. It may have worked in the City States of the Greek Empire for a short while until Sparta decided it was not a good idea. There isn't any true democracy around today. We delegate rule to a politican who may or may nor represent the individual voter's wishes.

With the Middle East, it is so poor as far as the masses are concerned that dictaroship or rule by Mullah is inevitable. Money is concentrated in the hands of very few in the Oil rich Arab states and if people could vote the Sheiks and Mullahs would be on their bikes.

Please accept my apologies if I am misrepresenting your position, but you seem to be confusing direct democracy with democracy as a whole, as you seem to think that delegating power means you are no longer a democracy.

Switzerland provides the strongest example of modern direct democracy although it is of course not perfect.

There are many kinds of democracies, which have often evolved to suit the local culture.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy

Britain is a representative democracy, and not a bad one at that, though it has its strange aspects (House of Lords...)

As for the Middle East, I agree with your more general point that things are complicated.

I disagree however, with what I thought you implied, which is to say that there is something intrinsic about the Middle East that means that democracy could not take root there. This has been said about Japan, Germany, India and South Africa to name a few and they are doing ok.

If I misunderstood what you impiled with this comment (which led me to respond) my apologies

QUOTE(Realistbear @ Aug 5 2006, 06:56 PM) *

"Democracy" is uniquely western and alien to Middle Eastern culture. Even Egypt, a moderate Arab nation, has a president who tends to stay in power until he has a son or is assasinated. Ditto Jordan.

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Chirac and Bush have just reached an agreement on the Lebanon.

What about Tony 'Yo!' Bliar? Well, he is over Here

What a joke. When its our troops getting killed he thinks nothing of having his hols at Cliff's or Richards Hideaways. Now there's a UN job in it for him the horrible little man is kissing every a&*& he can. I hope the two faced dog and his badly dyed hair rott in hell. Sorry , i just can't stand the man or :angry: his party, oh yes and his missus making a fortune out of human rights cases, now wonder he is soft on immigration, he needs the money is wife makes keeping the buggers in.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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