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the end is a bit nigher

No Recession Required

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i keep reading on here about people losing their houses because of recession when in fact it is growth and increasing commodity prices that will push up inflation and interest rates

as an example, the u.s. has raised 17 consecutive times to stop the economy overheating, not because they are in recession - at the same time, wage growth has been minimal - the result, people can't afford higher payments - this is starting to happen all over now

people will lose their homes because they have bought overpriced houses with money borrowed at historically low rates - growth in the economy will push those rates up and without wages keeping track, people just won't be able to meet repayments - if a recession comes from this then so be it but we don't necessarily need the recession

incidentally, this is exactly how it happened in the late 80s / early 90s which is strange 'cos it's different this time

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i keep reading on here about people losing their houses because of recession when in fact it is growth and increasing commodity prices that will push up inflation and interest rates

as an example, the u.s. has raised 17 consecutive times to stop the economy overheating, not because they are in recession - at the same time, wage growth has been minimal - the result, people can't afford higher payments - this is starting to happen all over now

people will lose their homes because they have bought overpriced houses with money borrowed at historically low rates - growth in the economy will push those rates up and without wages keeping track, people just won't be able to meet repayments - if a recession comes from this then so be it but we don't necessarily need the recession

incidentally, this is exactly how it happened in the late 80s / early 90s which is strange 'cos it's different this time

"It's different this time". Legendary investor Sir John Templeton opined that these were the 4 most dangerous words in investing.

I may sound like a broken record, but I'm super confident that the US is headed for recession Q1 next year. The only thing I'm not sure about is whether the UK economy is mirroring that of 1988 or 1990? Any thoughts ;)

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"It's different this time". Legendary investor Sir John Templeton opined that these were the 4 most dangerous words in investing.

I may sound like a broken record, but I'm super confident that the US is headed for recession Q1 next year. The only thing I'm not sure about is whether the UK economy is mirroring that of 1988 or 1990? Any thoughts ;)

I agree, but each time it is different, otherwise we'd know exactly what was going to happen. There are always slightly different ingredients each time but when the right mix occurs, the end result is the same. It's just the end result which isn't "different this time"!

Human greed and stupidity are one constant factor though ;)

Regards,

crude.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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