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renter1

Hands Up For Crash In 2007

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how many of you think prices will drop in 2007 enough to negotiate good discounts and buy at a fairly reasonable price by the end of the year/ eary 2008 and if so what will be the trigger

OR

do you think the BOE and Gov will continue the balancing act .25% up and down again and prices will conitnue at this level

your thoughts?

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I agree 2007 will be very interesting. I am hoping that by the end of the year I can start putting in silly offers and hopefully get one at a reasonable price. I suppose it depends on what you class as a reasonable and how far you expect prices to fall?

Personally if house prices fell by 15-20% and then I was able to negotiate another 10% off the asking price, to me it would be worth buying.

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I don't think there will be any notable 'crash' as such, but given time, slowly falling prices, and wage inflation, we will see a sensible 'average house price:average salary' ratio emerge. We may well be able to predict, by the end of 2007, when this is likely to be. We need another rate rise before we get too excited though. They hit 4.75% before and then went back down to 4.5%, but if we get another rise before 2006 is out then I think we'll be able to safely say it's started. 2007 will indeed be interesting.

Edited by Bingley Bloke

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Thats what I keep thinking - it will be next year.......

I suppose you have to hold on to some kind of hope?

Anyone really tihnk it is different this time and 2007 really will be interesting - and what do we all mean when we say interesting?

How far would prices have to fall before you would consider buying?

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It was 2002 then 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007 now it's 2008.

Always so near and yet so far.

Yep the government have done their best to stop it crashing. Why do you think they are in so much debt now?

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2007 will be the year main-stream attitude changes.

By the end of 2007, more than 50% of the population will react in a disapproving way when you mention the word "property".

That's it!. Roll on 2008, 2009 and 2010...

AF

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Thats what I keep thinking - it will be next year.......

I suppose you have to hold on to some kind of hope?

Anyone really tihnk it is different this time and 2007 really will be interesting - and what do we all mean when we say interesting?

How far would prices have to fall before you would consider buying?

I believe that interesting means the debt based economies of the world tank big style. Dragged down by a number of imploding asset bubbles. The idea that all us bears are going to watch an ordered implodiig housing market and then step in and pick up a few choice bargains is ridiculus. Something tells me that buying a house will be the least of your worries( or hopes ) in 2007.

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Inflation is catching up with people but borrowing is still cheap

BOE/GB have raised IR to slow borrowing/spending down - but will it?

If further IR rises don't do the trick (the latest one is just a test of the water) and real inflation continues to rise then IR may have to rise to a point that causes real hardship

It depends how resiliant the consumer is - how much s*** they can take before they give up their MEW lifestyles....

PS what's sad about this whole thing is that people are borrowing to LIVE day-to-day but don't even realise it - I think THAT's why real inflation appears to being tackled ATM - BOE/GB had a laugh at us they kept IR low and watched inflation climb without a murmor from the electorate - now it's getting a little uncomfortable....

Edited by dnd

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Always so near and yet so far.

Just as things are starting to get interesting. IRs on an upward trend, crash in US, some signs of increasing bearishness in the press, HPI stagnant...........

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Big discounts are available now,but to plough in during the early stages of a crash would be folly.the last crash 1989-1996 took seven years to unravel.Three times I have negogiated big discounts on three properties,three times I have bottled it;my bearish head has always won the day.

The three offers accepted this Summer were:285k down to 230k,295k down to 240kand 135k down to 111k.I keep having to remind myself that 1989s bargains were 1996 s**t deals.my cash buyer status is making vendors drop about 19%.

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I think a crash in 2007, if it happens it could take 15 years. In 15 years fuel prices are set to rocket and in turn cause a global economic recession.

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I think a crash in 2007, if it happens it could take 15 years. In 15 years fuel prices are set to rocket and in turn cause a global economic recession.

i doubt very much it will take 15 years that's just taking the proverbial in a fiat economy with proven fundamental 7 year cycles. This one was different it was a 10 year trend from bottom to top but really 8 from the start of the rally in 1998.

GB did all he could as did the rest of the world by increasing money supply through credit and constricting inflation using new fundamentals such as the yen carry trade and cheap imports from the east to curb inflation.

Inflation, capitalism, debt, money care and feel for no human being as i have stated in the past. Taking from one source (easy credit, printing of money) lead to an increase in other parts (fuel, energy, debt ridden consumers, pressures on our suppliers, greed which stemmed to war for the precious energy - a spiral of inflation pressure upwards, an effect of the increased money supply).

The dynamics changed that is what was different this time. The 'global economy' due to an information age and formation of countries which lead to an easier way to trade through IT and better relations through 'i'm a greedy western country that wants to buy things cheap and sell things dear because i fell i am arrogant and naive enough to believe i am a major ruler of this world an will continue to be for ever).

Lying to thmselves and their nations about the inflation figures, employment figures, shift from west to east, real impact in the long term, so that they could stay in power short term, our western governments US/UK have fuuuuurked up.

Await and behold, the whole fiat economy is under question and scrutinizatin, look it up through the net you know GIYF. It is wrong to have the ability to create money or wealth through a printing press - it doesn't work and defies logic, which is why bartering and gold were very succesful ways of running economies.

We will slowly go back to a proper way of measuring the amount of wealth instead of scewed up statistics of M3/M4 and figures of money supply. A means of resetting what money is actually worth will shine through like the phoenix that rises through the ashes and shines it's light like the reset button on your computer when it goes wrong. An age old material that has been in the civilised and uncivilised world since man first had foresight. A matter which cannot be tarnished, influenced, printed, created, fudged, spinned because it is an actual physical material that all can see. it's name if you have not already guessed is..... gold.

Gold like in the late 70's shone to reset inflated money supplies from the vietnam war and reset the value by allowing all economies to unerstand what money was actually worth. It willl happen again. Along with it will come unemployment, recession, possible war, contraction in money supply and a house price crash.

We are in the beginning stages, it will not be as painful as some doom mongers say, we will get through it like we got through every trial and tribulatiion through history. Some will lose, some will win, the pleasant and well rounded idividuals at HPC will survive and possibly prosper. 'It will all come out in the wash'. Stay strong, be prepeared financially, learn read and mostly UNDERSTAND the impartials, seek foresight and we will get through this stronger on the other side.

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Apparently IR's would need to be at least 6% and probably closer to 8% to have a similar impact on the housing market as they did in the 80's crash

So I can't see it happening all that quickly

Of course the raised interest rate along with higher energy bills for consumers (especially when winter kicks in) will mean people will have less spending power so should act as a brake on inflation

Apparently the MPC have to keep inflation around 2% - If they miss this target by 1% then they have to explain what's going on to Gordon (but since the system has been in place this has not been necessary.... yet)

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2007 will be the year main-stream attitude changes.

By the end of 2007, more than 50% of the population will react in a disapproving way when you mention the word "property".

That's it!. Roll on 2008, 2009 and 2010...

AF

2008 onwards will be the property investors wet dream then.

Just like 3rd August for you guys, pass the kleenex.

:o

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Do you have a source for this? If you mean simply that the proportional rise from 1989 interest rates to the 'Black Wednesday' peak of 15% is the same as 8% over 4.5% - well that is very simplistic. People were nothing like as overborrowed then, there were far fewer indirect taxes, and also the 15% base rate only lasted a few hours. (It's trotted out by Labour spinmeisters but I certainly never paid anything like that, even for a month, and I had a mortgage then.) Also, by then, the crash had largely happened.

(And yes, I predicted the last crash too.)

I heard the "at least 6%, probably 8% required to have the same impact on todays housing market compared to the 80's" from an economist on a radio slot - this was at least 2 months ago and before most of the fuel/energy increase announcements though

He was attempting to answer the specific question about how high IR's would need to go to cause a crash

He was taking into account the fact that people are more overborrowed now hence he came up with a lower IR estimate than caused the 80's crash.

Interest rates were high for years - not hours! (and along with black Wednesday which lost us billions it's not surprising people should remember and sometimes trott it out)

See this link for UK base rates from 1985 to the present

http://www.houseweb.co.uk/house/market/graph.html

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
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      • up 5%



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