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Interest Rates Rise To 4.75%


Jason

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HOLA441
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HOLA444

Sorry, but I don't think much of your reading - comprehension skills! I didn't say that "wage inflation will continue as in the past" . If you read my post you'll see that I predicted that house price rises would follow the rate of wage inflation.

I'm truly baffled as to how you interpreted it the way you did.

You sound like an elderly schoolteacher? That part of my post was refering to your general 'House prices will go up, because wages will go up' argument, not a specific comment in this thread.

Conversely, was trying to point out that arguing in this thread that a 0.5% IR rise will make houses unaffordable contrasts somewhat with your signature.

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HOLA445
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The point is that lots of graduates and FTBs DID get the dosh together to get on. There will always be folks who don't possess the the means to buy property. Hell, I know lots of them but htey're not being nasty and wishing repossession and financial suffering on those that managed to do so. It doesn't make for good karma to wish ill on others, that's all I'm saying.

My good fortune on the quadrupling of the value of my flat is exactly that. Nothing to do with my being financially astute or being a housing market visionary. I needed somewhere to live so I bought a place - pure and simple. A lot of my friends being of a similar age didn't buy at the same time even though they had the means to. THEY aren't being sh*tty about those that've bought in the last coupla years and profited even though they can't afford to so I find it hard to condone the kind of ill will I've been reading on this thread.

If I wasn't a homeowner now, I doubt I could afford to buy but although I'd welcome the chance to do so now the rates may go up further, I wouldn't wish bad sh*t on others even though I know there's a good chance many private buyers will get repo'ed if they do. If you can't see the sentiment behind that, I don't really give a sh*t.

The problem is mate you came on here gobbing off and implying that those who don't already own property are just lazy dossers, that we should chill out and smoke some reefer FFS :rolleyes: . Now you have the gall to tell everyone off because they dare to let off steam after the IR hike? I think you lost your credibility on that first post, so be a good chap and stop pontificating. Thanks. ;)

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HOLA447

Well, I factored in my assumptions of IR movements (5% tops in this cycle)

If I'm wrong, and we ever become the high IR, High inflation economy of my youth (1970's) then I don't see any difference. We'd have the kind of high nominal price rises and high wage inflation we had then, not least supported by the benign effects of high wage inflation for mortgagees, that my generation is regularly reminded of on this forum!

It's an interesting debate, what was the trade deficit like in the 70's? Was our economy fuelled by ever scarcer fuel supplies or did we mine our own coal?

Economics has so many factors that we bearly ever have the same scenario repeat itself.

I think the cost of doing anything (energy) will continue to creep and will slowly render many tasks/jobs economically unviable leading to a retraction of the economy and eventually a recession, haulage will be one of the earlier casualties.

The money for wage inflation will likely be consumed by increasing overheads.

Can't be certain without hindsight though.

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HOLA448

Thats a sensible prediction, but do you think it fully acknowledges a potential/likely increase in the cost of borrowing?

?...!, you seem to be one of the few professional economists on this board (maybe the only one?), would you give a guestimate on what you think will happen to IR over the next year or two, please?

Edit: ah, you kind of answered the question at the same time I was asking it!

Edited by Pooh Bear
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HOLA449

?...!, you seem to be one of the few professional economists on this board (maybe the only one?), would you give a guestimate on what you think will happen to IR over the next year or two, please?

Edit: ah, you kind of answered the question at the same time I was asking it!

Globally they will continue to creep.

The cycle isn't national it's a global cycle and the prime movers are still moving.

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HOLA4410

I am so so happy, my wife and I sold all our investment properties two months ago thanks in part to the advice given here and have over £1.5m in cash and are just exchanged contracts on our main home in Dulwich.

We are sitting with just cash and about 7.5% in gold so we just hope that interest rates go higher and higher and hope to buy back similar properties for hopeful half the price we sold them for!!

I advised various aquaintances of our who had BTL to sell last year and they all thought we were doing the wrong thing..I am so looking forward to watching them get deeper and deeper into trouble as interest rates rise...I can wait!!!

IMO I think they will go to around 6% and then fall back as carnage develops on the streets

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HOLA4411

Globally they will continue to creep.

The cycle isn't national it's a global cycle and the prime movers are still moving.

Thanks. What's the correct economic term for what we're beginning to see? Is it stagflation? Oil driven input inflation, wage deflation caused by globalisation? How can wages increase in the UK when we are now competing with India, China etc. on a relatively level footing?

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HOLA4412

The problem is mate you came on here gobbing off and implying that those who don't already own property are just lazy dossers, that we should chill out and smoke some reefer FFS :rolleyes: . Now you have the gall to tell everyone off because they dare to let off steam after the IR hike? I think you lost your credibility on that first post, so be a good chap and stop pontificating. Thanks. ;)

Oh ****** did I. That's the way some tossers TOOK it. There's letting off steam and there's wishing for people to end up in negative equity. I don't give a monkey's about credibility when it depends on following the rest of the gimps in wishing repossession on people who may have very well, perhaps foolishly, over-extended themselves to get on the ladder.

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HOLA4413
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HOLA4414

Gas going going up

Electricity going up

Oil going up

Interest rates going up

House prices going up

POP

Even if interest rates don't go up again before Christmas, energy prices will. Due to so many borrowing to near or beyond their limits, this rise is going to hurt far more than the rises in the 80's. Maybe not enough for the BTL muppets to run for the exit, but they must be starting to look in that direction...

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HOLA4415
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HOLA4416

I tell you now, buyers will pull out immediately; the market will die going into winter and we will see negative movement by the year end. Finally the HPI is dead. Long live the HPD.

So much for Gordon Brown controls the MPC!!!!!!!!!! :angry:

This is a great day.

For the first time in history the trend in IRs has been solitary ie the cut last time has been reversed without being added to.

There may or may not be another increase - there doesn't now have to be for an HPC.

Bravo to everyone on this site and particularly to Greg the Webmaster.

We have fought them on the beaches. We have fough them on the streets and in the EAs and in the lenders. We have succeeded and we have prevailed. I salute you Greg (Churchill). DDDRRRRRRRRRRRRRRum roll

God save our gracious Guvner. Long live our noble Guvnor. God save the Guvnor.

Hats in the air :D:D:D

Three cheers for the HPC

hip hip......hooray

hip hip......hooray

hip hip......hooray

:lol::lol::lol::lol:

fp

Good news ... definitely. But 'we have fought them on the streets??????' - sorry folks, you haven't fought anybody at all.

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HOLA4417

Good news ... definitely. But 'we have fought them on the streets??????' - sorry folks, you haven't fought anybody at all.

Marina you have been told again and again protests are of no use, moves such as todays and future moves such as todays will happen and is all that is needed - the whole world us upping rates everywhere and are not stopping, their CPI's are at 4% and above, ours will be too. Now sit back in your armchair put that in your pipe and smoke it.

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HOLA4418
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HOLA4422

See my post back in May:

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...st&p=378409

The money markets are taking this hawkishly. They put a 30% chance on someone voting for a rise, so Walton's vote is above market expectations.

We're now expecting a rise sooner rather than later. A rise in July or August seems firmly on the cards.

Some people were thinking we wouldn't get a rise this year! I'd say we are likely to have two.

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HOLA4423

Probably, because like myself we were unable to participate at the time prices were sensible. Myself and my friends all came out of uni at the time property was starting to go into hyper-hpi mode. When you just come out of uni with debts, low starting salaries and you don't know where you are going to settle as you need flexibility to get your 'career' started the last thing you are thinking of doing is buying a house.

Aren't we b*stards for being born a few years too late.

Me too.

However various friends I was at school with who didn't go to uni, managed to buy houses in the mid-90's with their £11k a year salaries and are now sitting pretty on huge equity.

Go figure.

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HOLA4424
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I think there is a lot of premature celebration going on here. Don't get me wrong . . . it's a good idea to put the IR up but all the vitriol aimed at people who've gone out and bought a place - for whatever reason - is a bit puerile. Sounds like sheer jealousy when people blame recent buyers for keeping prices high and, thus, out of reach. They begged stole or borrowed to get on the ladder and although that may have been foolish, it's stillnot nice to think of them being repossessed or going into negative equity. The only reason anyone would express glee at that is because they were frustrated at not being able to afford to buy themselves.

Prices were reasonable for an awfully long time and if you didn't get on board at the time, tough sh*t. What makes you think house prices are gonna drop THAT much anyway ? This is nothing like the late 80s early 90s. I was arranging countless mortgages back then and interest rates were at 7% before the madness of the ERM. Then they DOUBLED. I'm sorry but I just don't see that happening this time round.

If you're expecting a 50% "correction", might I suggest you smoke some more reefer and buy some more Pringles cos you've got a LONG wait.

"I think there is a lot of premature celebration going on here. Don't get me wrong . . . it's a good idea to put the IR up but all the vitriol aimed at people who've gone out and bought a place - for whatever reason - is a bit puerile." - Fair enough, maybe it is a bit puerile, but nevertheless an understandably human reaction to so much pain.

"Prices were reasonable for an awfully long time and if you didn't get on board at the time, tough sh*t." - Whoah there fella! Didn't you just b0llock people for being puerile?! Looks like someone's being a big fat hypocrite.

"I suggest you smoke some more reefer and buy some more Pringles" - Oh dear, implying we're all lazy dope smokers aswell are you? I don't think there's any need to take you too seriously chum.

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HOLA4425

This is a GREAT day!!!!!!!!!!! I hope that this is now the beginning of the end of all the misery that decent hard working people have been through in recent years and that they will soon be able to put a decent roof over their heads at last. For all those who have monopolized the housing market remember that "pride comes before a fall"!

Edited by HOUSEHUNTER
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