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Halifax July Index Published 3rd Aug...

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Looks like good news all round...

0.2 per cent monthly increase, taking annual HPI to 8.8 per cent. Follows dips in May and June, but as Halifax says, this "is a typical feature of a more stable housing market."

Halifax's prediction for the full year upwardly revised to five per cent, and fundamentals remain sound; employment up, "currently 223,000 higher than a year ago)."

Looks like a good steady market in the months ahead :)

Anyone still expecting a crash?

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Interesting that they've suddenly starting quoting 4 month moving averages? I always thought most releases spoke of 3 monthly moving averages (or to you and I - quarterly). Ah that'll be it...do the 3 month moving average of July/June/May (£177466) against June/May/April (£178095) and you'll see we're going negative-albeit by not much. Spin Spin Spin eh Halifax. :ph34r:

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I think that the 4 months 0.9% Halifax refers to in the following extract is not a rolling calculation.

“Overall, house prices have increased by only 0.9% in the past four months compared with a 3.3% rise in the preceding four months.”

The last 4 months increase (0.2, -1.2, -0.1, 2) gives 0.9%.

The preceeding 4 months to that (1.1, 1.5, -0.2, 0.9) gives 3.3%

Using 3 months instead

The last 3 months increase (0.2, -1.2, -0.1) gives -1.1%.

The preceeding 3 months to that (2, 1.1, 1.5) gives 4.6%

So the quote could have been written

“Overall, house prices have decreased by 1.1% in the past three months compared with a 4.6% rise in the preceding three months.”

How about that for a change in emphasis?

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Looks like good news all round...

0.2 per cent monthly increase, taking annual HPI to 8.8 per cent. Follows dips in May and June, but as Halifax says, this "is a typical feature of a more stable housing market."

Halifax's prediction for the full year upwardly revised to five per cent, and fundamentals remain sound; employment up, "currently 223,000 higher than a year ago)."

Looks like a good steady market in the months ahead :)

Anyone still expecting a crash?

I disregard Halifax figures as they don't represent what is happening in the south of the country.

the figures have been distorted by the north, NI and Scotland for a long time now.

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I disregard Halifax figures as they don't represent what is happening in the south of the country.

the figures have been distorted by the north, NI and Scotland for a long time now.

I concur - the Halifax figures exaggerated HPI in 2004 and 2005 when the North was booming, and now they don't show the true picture because they don't really take into account the current boom in the South.

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I concur - the Halifax figures exaggerated HPI in 2004 and 2005 when the North was booming, and now they don't show the true picture because they don't really take into account the current boom in the South.

I am aware that there has been a mini-boom in central London and some locations popular with 2nd home buyers (Devon, Cornwall etc) but in general there has been no 'boom' in the south. I know countless areas where prices have not gone up and have barely increased in the last 3 years.

Where I live in SW London/Surrey prices are definitely not higher than 3 years ago, there is evidence from recent sales that prices are dropping.

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Looks like good news all round...

0.2 per cent monthly increase, taking annual HPI to 8.8 per cent. Follows dips in May and June, but as Halifax says, this "is a typical feature of a more stable housing market."

Halifax's prediction for the full year upwardly revised to five per cent, and fundamentals remain sound; employment up, "currently 223,000 higher than a year ago)."

Looks like a good steady market in the months ahead :)

Anyone still expecting a crash?

Sadly, the jobs situation is not as good as some would like it to be. Might be due to the loss of manufacturing overseas and retail shutting down:

http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nugget.asp?id=12

The unemployment rate was 5.4 per cent,
up
0.3 over the quarter and
up
0.7 over the year.
The number of unemployed people
increased
by 90,000 over the quarter and by 224,000 over the year, to reach 1.65 million.
The claimant count was 956,600 in June 2006,
up
5,900 on the previous month and
up
93,300 on the year.
The inactivity rate for people of working age was 21.1 per cent for the three months ending in May 2006, down 0.2 over the quarter and down 0.4 over the year. The last time the rate was lower was in the three months to May 1992. The number of
economically inactive people of working age fell by 79,000
over the quarter, to reach 7.85 million.
The annual rate of growth in average earnings (the AEI), excluding bonuses, was 3.8 per cent in May 2006, up 0.1 from the previous month. Including bonuses it was 4.1 per cent, down 0.3 from the previous month.
The average number of job vacancies for the three months to June 2006 was 598,100. This was up 1,900 on the previous quarter but
down
34,600 over the year.

With unemployment rate increasing, claimant count headed up and job vacanacies down it looks like recession may be with us soon. :(

The redundancy rate for the three months to May 2006 was 5.9 per 1,000 employees. This is up from 5.7 in the previous quarter.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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