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ParticleMan

Average Dwelling Occupancy Levels

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One of the Bull arguments draws on dwelling occupancy levels - headcount per residence - which has been trending somewhat lower in recent UK history.

In either the hyperinflationary or the recessionary forward outlooks - should we assume that significant "substitution" will happen as this trend reverts to mean - by which I mean, should we assume that as cash becomes harder to earn (or harder to keep ahold of) - should we assume that one reaction will be an overall trend toward increased consolidation of households?

And what does a trend inversion here mean? As this demand bias favouring individual indepenance over fiscal efficiency evaporates and efficient use of liveable space becomes a normative household goal - what will this mean for the market overall?

Or is this too awkward a question? Perhaps occupancy levels will always go down, as surely as asking prices will always go up?

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What an interesting question.

There has to be a limit to how few people there are per household (simple logic means it can only go as low as 1 without a glut of empty properties).

So the trend to smaller households has to end sometime.

This data is from ONS

(Apologies for data structure - I refuse to buy Excel.)

,,,1971,1975,1981,1985,1991,1995,1996,1998,,1998,2000,2001,2002,2003

Average (mean) household size,,,2.91,2.78,2.70,2.56,2.48,2.40,2.43,2.36,,2.32,2.30,2.33,2.31,2.32

It seems to be happening already. Mean no. of people per household reached a low or 2.30 in 2000 and has since crept up to 2.32 in 2003. And in 2003 we were nearly back to where we were in 1998. I'd like to know what's been happening in the last 3 years.

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My Prediction:

;) interest rates go up - owner occupying with a mortgate gets more expensive

;) BTL landlord costs go up - it's TTRTR (time to raise the rents)

;) less disposable income all round

Consequence - let's move in together and save us some money.

Occupancy levels go up some more.

;) in lieu of bullet points

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My Prediction:

;) interest rates go up - owner occupying with a mortgate gets more expensive

;) BTL landlord costs go up - it's TTRTR (time to raise the rents)

;) less disposable income all round

Consequence - let's move in together and save us some money.

Occupancy levels go up some more.

;) in lieu of bullet points

Not so far fetched... I'm planning to rent out my spare room to help pay my mortgage costs and there is currently no shortage of potential lodgers who can't afford to buy at today's prices. Just doing my bit to get those occupancy rates moving back up :)

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Not so far fetched... I'm planning to rent out my spare room to help pay my mortgage costs and there is currently no shortage of potential lodgers who can't afford to buy at today's prices. Just doing my bit to get those occupancy rates moving back up :)

There's a great forum where you could find a lodger here!

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Not so far fetched... I'm planning to rent out my spare room to help pay my mortgage costs and there is currently no shortage of potential lodgers who can't afford to buy at today's prices. Just doing my bit to get those occupancy rates moving back up :)

And remember that your income from a lodger is tax free. Up to a certain limit which covers probably most lodgers in most households. It's a better way of making your property pay than investing in a BTL (where you have to [should] pay tax on your income).

Room for a llttl'un.

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And remember that your income from a lodger is tax free. Up to a certain limit which covers probably most lodgers in most households. It's a better way of making your property pay than investing in a BTL (where you have to [should] pay tax on your income).

I hadn't forgotten - I think its called the Rent a Room scheme. Hell, enough of us rented out rooms we'd reduce the demand for all those BTL rental pads... :ph34r:

Room for a llttl'un.

I think the commute from Cambridge to Northampton might put you off (and the prospect of living in Northampton!!!)

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What an interesting question.

(Apologies for data structure - I refuse to buy Excel.)

Open office, seriously..

Download it and use it.

Love it.

What happened in 1996.

Oh, and my sum (not allowing for people leaving our shores) shows that we are building a new home for every 2.1 people.

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Open office, seriously..

Download it and use it.

Love it.

What happened in 1996.

Oh, and my sum (not allowing for people leaving our shores) shows that we are building a new home for every 2.1 people.

Yes I think thats an important point, we weren't in the past but now we are building enough houses for people. 210000 houses were started to be built this year, and that number is slowly but surely going up. No longer can the excuse of limited supply be used!

When both the supply goes up and demand goes down then property prices will fall!

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One of the Bull arguments draws on dwelling occupancy levels - headcount per residence - which has been trending somewhat lower in recent UK history.

In either the hyperinflationary or the recessionary forward outlooks - should we assume that significant "substitution" will happen as this trend reverts to mean - by which I mean, should we assume that as cash becomes harder to earn (or harder to keep ahold of) - should we assume that one reaction will be an overall trend toward increased consolidation of households?

And what does a trend inversion here mean? As this demand bias favouring individual indepenance over fiscal efficiency evaporates and efficient use of liveable space becomes a normative household goal - what will this mean for the market overall?

Or is this too awkward a question? Perhaps occupancy levels will always go down, as surely as asking prices will always go up?

I for one think you have a point.

I think co-habiting will make a comeback.Not necessarily marriage I hasten to add.

While the powers that be fuel the chav addiction to benefits,the only way the decent working people will be able to afford the luxury of shelter is to either downsize themselves into a shoebox or start re-building some kind of communal living.

communal living is actually quite fun if you get the right bunch of people involved.It will also sort out small issues like childcare if parents work,because the arrangement is reciprocal if it works well.

the other benefits are splitting of heat/light/food bills,mortgage payments...transport payments if a couple of people work togerther.......

...and the biggest benefit is company and a sense of family,rather than the splendid isolation many folks(and the playstation generation) have come to accept as normal.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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