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Realistbear

Anyone Wondering Who Will Be First To Post The Mpc Decision?

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Fingers at the ready gentlemen and ladies................................

My bet: no change with a hint that the situation with regard to rising inflation will be monitored. 6 in favour of a hold one for a hike: the HPC pin-up girl of course, Katy Barker

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it's like Christmas morning the anticipation builds .......

Yeah only to find mum and dad have given you a naff present!

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Fingers at the ready gentlemen and ladies................................

My bet: no change with a hint that the situation with regard to rising inflation will be monitored. 6 in favour of a hold one for a hike: the HPC pin-up girl of course, Katy Barker

Yep, no change and bury the inflation figures (they might not even be mentioned)

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Guest Bart of Darkness

Yeah only to find mum and dad have given you a naff present!

And you can't take it back if you don't like it.

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They have no choice as this an inflation report month. Whats the alternative put it up in Sept or Oct and admit their report was wrong.

4.75% with "inflation is a threat and we must monitor any changes in future data"

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The mood has changed distinctly in the last month. A month ago we had most financial institutions expecting a hold, a couple a rise and a couple a fall. This month a whole load have switched to expecting a rise and I have not seen anybody suggesting rates could go down.

If the rates do not go up by 0.25% it will shock the market, so I expect a rise of 0.25%.

Edited by King Of Fools

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Guest The_Oldie

Last night, even the BBC (Julia Caesar - BBC News 24) were predicting an IR rise this month.

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Last night, even the BBC (Julia Caesar - BBC News 24) were predicting an IR rise this month.

yoinks! I still can't believe it would actually happen though... after all these months of "hear no inflation, see no inflation, speak no inflation" from the ONS & MPC. If it does, I would expect this forum to be overcome by an explosion of exaggerated joy, tempered by the odd troll here and there. There'll be unprecedented amounts of posting though!

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Indeed. I have difficulty seeing how the MPC could go from everyone hold last month to raise this month without looking stupid, but if the BBC are pushing it maybe it's going to happen...

As someone else said, if it's not this month they don't have long to raise before Christmas gets in the way. And it _is_ a year after the retarded cut.

Edited by MarkG

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Well, Nationwide seem to think they will be held:

http://www.nationwide.co.uk/mediacentre/Pr...this.asp?ID=871

INTEREST RATES UNLIKELY TO CHANGE FOR 12TH CONSECUTIVE MONTH

* The Nationwide Consumer Confidence Index remains at 94 for the third consecutive month

* Confidence in the present state of the economy sinks to a new low of 88

* Record numbers of people are gloomy about job prospects

* House price expectations reach new high

What any of that has to do with interest rates whose only job is to control inflation, I do not know!

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Scotsman says no..........................

http://business.scotsman.com/index.cfm?id=1117752006

'MPC unlikely to be swayed by adverse figures'

NICK BEVENS

AN UNEXPECTED slowdown in UK manufacturing in July, and the continued rise in property prices, are still unlikely to deter the Bank of England from holding interest rates at 4.5 per cent for the 12th month running when it announces its decision tomorrow, as worries continue about keeping inflation in check.
As the monetary policy committee sits today and tomorrow, new figures from the Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply/RBS showed that their Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell in July from a two-year high in June with the rising costs of oil, energy and raw materials putting growth in check. CIPS said its barometer for measuring manufacturing dipped to 53.8 in July, compared with 55.1 in June, which was its highest reading since July 2004.
But despite the slight dip, the index still remains above the 50 mark to indicate expansion and employment in the sector has risen for the second month running and purchasing managers in the sector reported strong expansion in production as well as growth in exports and "healthy new business wins".
The Nationwide Building Society also said yesterday that
UK house prices rose by 0.8 per cent in July
, bringing the annual rate of inflation up to 5.9 per cent, the highest since April 2005.
British inflation, however, unexpectedly shot up to 2.5 per cent in June
, half a percentage point above the MPC's target, and will probably rise further as energy costs continue to climb, while the economy grew a brisk 0.8 per cent in the second quarter.

All the reasons in the world to hike but they believe the BoE will do nothing. Inflation is apparently a non-issue for the BoE whose new brief must be to see that Gordon ascends to No. 10 on the back of continued HPI-MEW.

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Gordon didn't get where he is today by raising IR. Hiking would be like killing his progeny. As his "Miracle Economy" was born out of accomodative IR it is hard to see how he will do the one thing that would destroy his creation. NO, a hiking frenzy would be an admission of defeat and that the excessive reliance on cheap credit over the past 10 years was a huge mistake. No Chancellor would ever admit that.

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http://business.guardian.co.uk/story/0,,1835251,00.html

House price rise adds to pressure on Bank to increase rates

· Dilemma for MPC as rising energy costs hit industry

· Pick-up in unemployment helps to dampen inflation

Larry Elliott, economics editor
Wednesday August 2, 2006
The Guardian
Rising house prices and slower industrial growth provided a fresh dilemma for the seven current members of the Bank of England's monetary policy committee as they began a two-day meeting this morning to decide interest rates...../
Kevin Daly, an economist with Goldman Sachs, said he expected the MPC to raise rates. "A central banker's job, according to one former chairman of the Federal Reserve, is to remove the punchbowl as the party gets going," he said. "For the UK economy, that time is now."

50/50 for a hike IMO. If I was going to bet I would take a shot on better odds and go for a hike. The BoE may need to prove they are independent with a Parliamentary enquiry going on.

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I bet the committe will vote 4-3 in favour of keeping rates on hold so that next month only one member needs to change their mind to put rates up. It will fit with the impression the BoE likes to give of being in control. As other posters have said moving from 7-0 for a hold to an increase will look like they were out of touch last month

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Where's the BBC news article telling us what rates will be tomorrow? I can't cope without the BBC telling me what's going to happen.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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