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Guardian: Btl And Immigration Now Fuelling H P I

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http://business.guardian.co.uk/story/0,,1834866,00.html

Landlords 'boosting house prices'

Charlotte Moore

Tuesday August 1, 2006

Guardian Unlimited

House prices rose by 0.8% last month, pushing the annual rate of house-price inflation to double the level in July last year, a survey showed today...../
House-price inflation has outstripped earnings growth for many years, making buying a home less affordable for an increasing proportion of the population. But the fall in affordability does not appear to have dampened demand for property..../
In addition, she said an increase in the number of migrant workers has pushed up demand for rental accommodation.
"The reduction in demand from owner-occupiers may have been replaced by landlords increasing their demand for house purchases to respond to increased tenant demand," she said.
"While rental yields have been falling
as house prices increase, landlords are still attracted by the performance of housing as a long-term investment. Evidence suggests that about half see their rental property as a nest egg, perhaps supplementing or replacing more traditional pension investments."

IT is easy to see why NuLabour want more immigration? Not to show mercy to 100's of thousands of poor East Europeans living in poverty but to bolster BTL which is one of the drivers behind Gordon's Miracle Economy of HPI-MEW.

With yields continuing to fall and immigrants not at the top of the earnings tree can it last?

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http://business.guardian.co.uk/story/0,,1834866,00.html

IT is easy to see why NuLabour want more immigration? Not to show mercy to 100's of thousands of poor East Europeans living in poverty but to bolster BTL which is one of the drivers behind Gordon's Miracle Economy of HPI-MEW.

With yields continuing to fall and immigrants not at the top of the earnings tree can it last?

what we really need is somekind of forced exchange programme... imagine if we could send a million workshy brit chavs to Poland in return for the million honest, polite, hardworking Poles who have come here. The new rightwing Polish government can send them down the salt mines...

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RB - I see you are coming around to my way of thinking....

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...&hl=BigBang

The problem with all these get rich quick ponzi schemes is that they only work as long as there is a greater fool to buy at the top of the market. As yields continue to drop some BTLers are going to find themselves with negative returns and bills to pay. NuLabour give and they also take away. IMO, the time to have bailed out of BTL was before everyone began to realise that the returns are no longer worth the risk. Even if you believe the VIs that HPI is running at around 5% it is better to invest in a boring savings account for those kinds of returns. Especially if yields are going to continue dropping. NuLabour might think that mass immigration will keep pressure on tight housing supply but when we hit recession the jobs will not be there for the immigrants to fill. People already here will have that problem.

Its all about the economic cycle. Houses are cyclicals and while they take longer to drop than other cyclicals, drop they still do.

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http://business.guardian.co.uk/story/0,,1834866,00.html

Landlords 'boosting house prices'

Charlotte Moore

Tuesday August 1, 2006

Guardian Unlimited

House prices rose by 0.8% last month, pushing the annual rate of house-price inflation to double the level in July last year, a survey showed today...../
House-price inflation has outstripped earnings growth for many years, making buying a home less affordable for an increasing proportion of the population. But the fall in affordability does not appear to have dampened demand for property..../
In addition, she said an increase in the number of migrant workers has pushed up demand for rental accommodation.
"The reduction in demand from owner-occupiers may have been replaced by landlords increasing their demand for house purchases to respond to increased tenant demand," she said.
"While rental yields have been falling
as house prices increase, landlords are still attracted by the performance of housing as a long-term investment. Evidence suggests that about half see their rental property as a nest egg, perhaps supplementing or replacing more traditional pension investments."

IT is easy to see why NuLabour want more immigration? Not to show mercy to 100's of thousands of poor East Europeans living in poverty but to bolster BTL which is one of the drivers behind Gordon's Miracle Economy of HPI-MEW.

With yields continuing to fall and immigrants not at the top of the earnings tree can it last?

http://business.guardian.co.uk/story/0,,1834866,00.html

Landlords 'boosting house prices'

Charlotte Moore

Tuesday August 1, 2006

Guardian Unlimited

House prices rose by 0.8% last month, pushing the annual rate of house-price inflation to double the level in July last year, a survey showed today...../
House-price inflation has outstripped earnings growth for many years, making buying a home less affordable for an increasing proportion of the population. But the fall in affordability does not appear to have dampened demand for property..../
In addition, she said an increase in the number of migrant workers has pushed up demand for rental accommodation.
"The reduction in demand from owner-occupiers
may
have been replaced by landlords increasing their demand for house purchases to respond to increased tenant demand," she said."
Use of the word 'may' may not be good enough! - It's significance is subject to mere speculation if not backed up by any figures
"The reduction in demand from owner-occupiers may have been replaced by landlords increasing their demand for house purchases to respond to increased tenant demand," she said.
"While rental yields have been falling
as house prices increase, landlords are still attracted by the performance of housing as a long-term investment. Evidence suggests that about half see their rental property as a nest egg, perhaps supplementing or replacing more traditional pension investments."

IT is easy to see why NuLabour want more immigration? Not to show mercy to 100's of thousands of poor East Europeans living in poverty but to bolster BTL which is one of the drivers behind Gordon's Miracle Economy of HPI-MEW.

With yields continuing to fall and immigrants not at the top of the earnings tree can it last?

Apologies but I ebedded my reply just now in error. Heres my reply to RB's post on this subject:

"The reduction in demand from owner-occupiers may have been replaced by landlords increasing their demand for house purchases to respond to increased tenant demand," she said."

Use of the word 'may' may not be good enough! - It's significance is subject to mere speculation if she does not have figures to back up this suggestion

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IMO, the time to have bailed out of BTL was before everyone began to realise that the returns are no longer worth the risk.

Trouble is - your opinion is of no consequence. Nor is anybody else's individually. But collectively opinions (i.e. actions) do matter. The fact is for every one person who thinks BTL is bad and should have been bailed out of etc - there are thousands who still think it is their long term salvation - and are prepared to subsidise it short term - maybe even long term.

This is IT. This is THE PROBLEM. Until it becomes patently clear that, long-term, property is not a good investment (and how the feck is that ever going to happen because, long-term, property is a good investment) then people are still going to line up to buy BTLs and displace FTBs.

The problem is BTL.

The solution is getting the law/taxation regime changed to make BTL less attractive. This is a social thing - and the only way the government of the day is going to wake up to the consequences of the current situation is if young people get angry and wake them up.

Forget interest rates, China, inflation, the dollar, gold, America, stagflation, inflation, hyper-inflation, wage growth, economic growth etc etc etc.

The problem is BTL.

The target is BTL.

Get that in your sights and you will own a property one day.

Carry on as you are and rent forever.

Think about it - it's even in the bloody papers. In the Guardian in black and white - the effect BTL is having on the market. But, so FECKING what? Does anyone reading that think it is IMPORTANT? Of course not, no-one has made a song and dance about it - no youngsters marching in the streets - so everyone must be happy with the situation mustn't they?

After all, how is anyone in power supposed to know you are pissed off about it?

Edited by Marina

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I always said BTL is satans ******** postule. Ban that, or ensure high deposit and no Let to buy income leverage and you would see house prices collapse literally overnight.

BTLers, especially the come latelys are merely inserting themselves between the people and what should be a freely available commodity.

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The solution is getting the law/taxation regime changed to make BTL less attractive. This is a social thing - and the only way the government of the day is going to wake up to the consequences of the current situation is if young people get angry and wake them up.

Forget interest rates, China, inflation, the dollar, gold, America, stagflation, inflation, hyper-inflation, wage growth, economic growth etc etc etc.

The problem is BTL.

The target is BTL.

Get that in your sights and you will own a property one day.

Carry on as you are and rent forever.

It will not work. It is mostly the young priced out of the housing market, the young forced to rent from the middle class, middle aged BTL landlords. If you had to allow a social group to get screwed over and lose their votes, who would you sacrifice? Can you imagine the squealing if the screw was tightened on BTLetters so their "investments" became a financial burden instead of being marginally profitable.

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It reports that in Boston there is a “rapid increase” in bulk buying of new homes for “labour providers” to house their low-paid workers. The report says: “This has fuelled demand and price inflation. The council estimates the average two-bedroom house price has risen 400 per cent in six years. There has been ‘ghettoisation’ of some areas. Surprisingly, this is not just in older housing areas: but also on new-build estates, where blocks of property are being bought direct from developers.”

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,13...2292880,00.html

The immigration issue is a clear-cut one of quality of life (crime levels, housing, public services) of the indigenous population versus profits for the fat cats.

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Apologies but I ebedded my reply just now in error. Heres my reply to RB's post on this subject:

"The reduction in demand from owner-occupiers may have been replaced by landlords increasing their demand for house purchases to respond to increased tenant demand," she said."

Use of the word 'may' may not be good enough! - It's significance is subject to mere speculation if she does not have figures to back up this suggestion

The problem is lack of supply (far too few homes are being built to cope) & the economic cycle

I always said BTL is satans ******** postule. Ban that, or ensure high deposit and no Let to buy income leverage and you would see house prices collapse literally overnight.

BTLers, especially the come latelys are merely inserting themselves between the people and what should be a freely available commodity.

If B2L is a problem in any particular area then maybe you could all urge your MP's or Councillors to introduce a restriction of some kind in those areas if there really are FTB's waiting to buy. However regarding the market as a whole B2L is not the problem:

Check these links which I found useful in confirming the main reasons for HPI:

There is a shortage of houses being built and this is the driving force behind the long term trend:

http://www.pricedout.org.uk/Articles/TheIs...19/Default.aspx

Also: Why the housing shortage won't stop the crash:

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/wiki/Why_..._stop_the_crash

However as you seem to want to keep B2L at least in check why don't you (and others who feel strongly enough) write to your MP's and/or Gordon's office explaining some of your concerns (link some of your arguments to tax) strongly urging them to ensure they have the necessary checks in place to make sure that B2L investers (and other self employed for that matter) are paying the tax they are due to pay!

That way it may curtail some B2Lers activities or make some think again if they have not been declaring their tax.

Also if Gordon gets some more taxes this way our own taxes may not have to increase as quickly.

Trouble is - your opinion is of no consequence. Nor is anybody else's individually. But collectively opinions (i.e. actions) do matter. The fact is for every one person who thinks BTL is bad and should have been bailed out of etc - there are thousands who still think it is their long term salvation - and are prepared to subsidise it short term - maybe even long term.

This is IT. This is THE PROBLEM. Until it becomes patently clear that, long-term, property is not a good investment (and how the feck is that ever going to happen because, long-term, property is a good investment) then people are still going to line up to buy BTLs and displace FTBs.

The problem is BTL.

The solution is getting the law/taxation regime changed to make BTL less attractive. This is a social thing - and the only way the government of the day is going to wake up to the consequences of the current situation is if young people get angry and wake them up.

Forget interest rates, China, inflation, the dollar, gold, America, stagflation, inflation, hyper-inflation, wage growth, economic growth etc etc etc.

The problem is BTL.

The target is BTL.

Get that in your sights and you will own a property one day.

Carry on as you are and rent forever.

Think about it - it's even in the bloody papers. In the Guardian in black and white - the effect BTL is having on the market. But, so FECKING what? Does anyone reading that think it is IMPORTANT? Of course not, no-one has made a song and dance about it - no youngsters marching in the streets - so everyone must be happy with the situation mustn't they?

After all, how is anyone in power supposed to know you are pissed off about it?

The problem is lack of supply (far too few homes are being built to cope) & the economic cycle

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I am out of housing for good.

Last year I sold to "sold to BTL" actually a dumb BTL.

Since 2004 I was trying to sell my 2 bed semi in bromley. Had nightmares along the way. It took me just over 12 months to sell. Two buyers were complete waste of time. paid all expenses but faild to sign the dotted line. Had to give up work to concentrate on selling and spend sometime with kids. Doing bit here and bit there.

It has been 1 year since selling. Went back with kids over the weekend to see what has been done to it. Nothing. absolutly nothing. Not rented not sold just sitting there pritty. Asked close neiboroughs about the house. They said has been empty since we left.

Next door old lady also said that more than 3/4 of the road of say around 30 houses sold to BTL. Our house, 4 houses to our left and two houses to our right sold to BTL. We could not believe how the street was so quite. Road full of empty houses. Poor old lady so lonely now.

The way it is going by end of year the whole street will be BTL road.

I am happy camper living with mum and no need to be chained by death to debt.

Houses are places to live but this socity and country we live make people greedy even if it means it hurts and burdens others who want to just start a home.

Shame tony blair killing the hopes of Iraqies and now killing the hopes of young people trying to start a home.

Anyway. Anyone got a job for me in IT? Can't seem to get one! is the economy that bad?

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The problem is BTL.

No, the problem is a huge global glut of credit thanks to the best part of a decade of artificially low interest rates.

Everything else stems from that: if interest rates were 10%, BTL wouldn't matter a damn, because few people would do it.

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I really question whether it is Eastern Europeans "taking over" and boosting house prices at all.

I know where I live, the migrants competing for housing (and white collar jobs) are Kiwis, Aussies and South Africans here on a year or two visas. They all work hard, play hard and spend decent money on accomadation (all rented of course). I would think they are a far more important group as to why rents are high in London.

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No, the problem is a huge global glut of credit thanks to the best part of a decade of artificially low interest rates.

Everything else stems from that: if interest rates were 10%, BTL wouldn't matter a damn, because few people would do it.

Mark G

You have hit the nail on the head. Credit is still cheap, money is cheaper than urine. If rate went higher which

they will do BTL will stop.

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I used to believe there would be a crash. Now I believe in stagnation.

Marina is correct. If you want a crash target BTL. Campaign to change the tax rules that allow cascading property portfolios to be created.

But, given the apathy of those priced out I just don't see the rules being changed.

Even if there was a crash it would just be a BTL buying opportunity.

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No, the problem is a huge global glut of credit thanks to the best part of a decade of artificially low interest rates.

Everything else stems from that: if interest rates were 10%, BTL wouldn't matter a damn, because few people would do it.

Interest rates aren't 10%.

Not likely to be in any future I can foresee.

Even with a global glut of credit FTBs can't buy.

So, BTL does matter a damn as it is the principal reason why property has been able to keep going up in price way beyond the normal restraint that used to exist.

Once upon a time when property become too expensive for FTBs prices stalled until the FTB market caught up - wages rose a bit etc.

If BTL were heavily taxed so that say 50% of the 'johny cum lately' BTLetters sold up - do you think it would not make prices drop?

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It will not work. It is mostly the young priced out of the housing market, the young forced to rent from the middle class, middle aged BTL landlords. If you had to allow a social group to get screwed over and lose their votes, who would you sacrifice? Can you imagine the squealing if the screw was tightened on BTLetters so their "investments" became a financial burden instead of being marginally profitable.

Absolutely spot on. I now no longer think that getting rid of Tony and Gordon would help. People that own, vote to protect themselves. If a political party were to openly say they were going to address the imbalance they wouldn't get voted in.

Edited by expatowner

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Guest X-QUORK

Surely we'd have seen rents rising at the same rate as HPI if housing supply is the main factor? Is this a bogus argument?

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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