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Only When The Last Bear Has Turned Bull

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I think (!) the (slightly simplified) theory is that once there are no more buyers (the bulls) then there are only sellers (the bears) ie noone thinks the asset is worth buying (eg houses in 1993) - if all are sellers ("last bull turning bear") then you are usually at the "bottom" of the market as the supply reflects the low/no demand. If there are no more sellers and only buyers (ie your example of "last bear turning bull") you are at the top of the market as the supply reflects the high (unfulfilled) demand.

The reasoning is that once everybody believes things can only get better (or worse), markets become gripped by a herd mentality, lose touch with reality and eventually come down (or rise again).

Obviously there is always someone buying irrespective of price and there is no true "last" buyer/seller in big markets but as a general principle for trends it seems to hold. When all (but not just most) people say buy is usually a good time to sell - when all (but not just most) people say sell its a good time to buy. The difference between the "all" and the "most" can the most profitable part of any price cycle and the most difficult to call correctly. Is that where we are now/were recently?

Someone correct me if I have got this a*se about t*t!

Edited by Tempest

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You have it the wrong way round, it's when the last bear turns bull. It reflects the fact that often bubbles take so long to burst that everyone thinks it will never happen, even those initially warning about the danger.

Of course in reality what happens is they don't turn bull, they just get labelled doom-mongers and "wrong" so often by the press they just get fed up and keep their gobs shut until after the inevitable happens.

Edited by DoubleBubbleTrouble

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This is an oft used phrase. Can someone explain the logic to me?

basically a bear is someone that thinks the market is due for a corection.

if all the bears start to believe the hype and change their minds believing there will be no correction house prices always go up and enter the market - like many on this site have, that is when the market turns, it's sods law.

It's just a saying like the darkest hour is that before dawn (the most difficult to get through). Sit tight, do not enter, stay bear - the dawn is nigh.

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Of course in reality what happens is they don't turn bull, they just get labelled doom-mongers and "wrong" so often by the press they just get fed up and keep their gobs shut until after the inevitable happens.

Yeah, that's pretty much where I am now. I'm fed up of waiting for it to happen and getting into arguments with people who think it won't, so I've just given up talking about it, reading about it and even thinking about it. But I won't turn bull until a decent house in my area is three to four times my salary... It's currently more like seven times... But it's not like I'm single-handedly going to prop the market up by refusing to turn bull until then.

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the way i look at it is a distinction between those who think that gordon brown is indeed an economic miracle worker, who has, through his prudent management of the economy, created a new paradigm which will see ever increasing rises in equity for those smart enough to invest in property, creating an entire generation who's wealth is virtually unlimited as they can withdraw this equity from their investment portfolio (i.e. their house) at any time, and those who think that the market will continue to operate in the way that it always has, globalisation isn't the economic salve that it was supposed to be, and that once a bubble market reaches the top it will inevitably move downwards.

personally, i have yet to see anything which suggests that brown et al. have done anything to alter the fundamentals of the market, and as with the law of gravity, the 'law of the market' will lead a persistent rise to an inevitable fall...

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You have it the wrong way round, it's when the last bear turns bull. It reflects the fact that often bubbles take so long to burst that everyone thinks it will never happen, even those initially warning about the danger.

Thats what I said in the second sentence! I only gave the "bull to bear" example first to show the principle (its easier (for me anyway) to see the logic that way first then simply apply the opposite for the "bear ti bull" example.

Whatever, we're nearly there. The pointy top.

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You have it the wrong way round, it's when the last bear turns bull. It reflects the fact that often bubbles take so long to burst that everyone thinks it will never happen, even those initially warning about the danger.

Of course in reality what happens is they don't turn bull, they just get labelled doom-mongers and "wrong" so often by the press they just get fed up and keep their gobs shut until after the inevitable happens.

"and keep their gobs shut " - I may have to quibble with you over this point. :rolleyes:

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Guest mattsta1964

the way i look at it is a distinction between those who think that gordon brown is indeed an economic miracle worker, who has, through his prudent management of the economy, created a new paradigm which will see ever increasing rises in equity for those smart enough to invest in property, creating an entire generation who's wealth is virtually unlimited as they can withdraw this equity from their investment portfolio (i.e. their house) at any time, and those who think that the market will continue to operate in the way that it always has, globalisation isn't the economic salve that it was supposed to be, and that once a bubble market reaches the top it will inevitably move downwards.

personally, i have yet to see anything which suggests that brown et al. have done anything to alter the fundamentals of the market, and as with the law of gravity, the 'law of the market' will lead a persistent rise to an inevitable fall...

spot-on-erooni!

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spot-on-erooni!

quite agree.

apart from ripping the moral fibre of this country to shreds,with centralised thought-policed laws and cocking up business with red tape.

we wouldn't need all these immigrants if the workshy were properly forced into working.

..to do that you would need a much stiricter(and more just)penal system for starters,and an ethic in the workplace that if you don't work your balls of you don't get paid,or get replaced.

..I'm used to grafting as I'm self-employed,I don't mind it at all....I get rewarded well for it.

...but I REALLY begrudge paying tax to folks who have no intention of contributing to our (british)families wellbeing.....indeed doing what they can to destroy it.......and the politicians are letting it happen!!!!!......bunch of impotent tossers that they are

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  • 336 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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