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IamSpartacus

Polar(ised) Bear

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Why are so many people on here obsessed with categorizing people as either Bulls or Bears? It seems an unhelpful and misleading oversimplicfication.

As a case in point, when I signed up as a member of this forum after lurking for about 6 months I was faced with the question 'Bull or Bear?'. Hmmmm...

Well, having sold one house, rented for a few months while I got the feel for the market in a new area, and then taken the plunge again with a fairly high multiple (a bit over 4x) mortgage according to many posters on here that makes me a bull.

However, I only bought because I found a property in an area that was already stagnating (Northampton) and negotiated a good price (more than 10% off the original asking price). In fact I fully believe that in many areas in the next 1-2 years there will be a sharp correction in prices, possibly as much as 20-30% in nominal terms in particularly overheated locations. Bear.

Nonetheless, for those who are happy they can afford their mortgage payments, have a fixed rate deal, and plan to stay in their home for a few years I think that they'll comfortably weather the storm and end up better off than if they had rented for a time before buying later. In pure monetary terms the two seem fairly close but home ownership gives increased stability of tenure and freedom to improve and decorate as one wishes. Bull.

From a wider perspective, I think that the tax advantages given to BTLers and second home owners are unfair and risk increasing social inequalities. This is particularly dangerous as the economic interests of the two groups (owners and tenants) line up approximately with a generation divide. When big differences of interest align with physical or demographic lines then the seeds of conflict are sown. I also believe that planning laws are overly restrictive and too much emphasis is placed on preserving greenbelt land, leaving an inadequate housing stock for this country's needs. Bear.

Nobody is genuinely a Bull or a Bear and believes that all asset classes in all circumstances will continue to rise or fall. The words refer to sentiments that are asset-specific and change over time in response to changing circumstances and new information. So why am I forced to pigeon-hole myself in this way??? :blink:

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Why are so many people on here obsessed with categorizing people as either Bulls or Bears? .... according to many posters on here that makes me a bull.

...I fully believe that in many areas in the next 1-2 years there will be a sharp correction in prices, - Bear.

.... So why am I forced to pigeon-hole myself in this way??? :blink:

Everybody gets a little confused now and again IAS. But cheer up: at least you know who you are. :D

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'sounds confusing.

So do you think property prices will be higher or lower in 2 years?

In some areas higher, in some lower. I don't think there'll be sustained drops nationwide, nor do I think there'll be much more HPI except in localised areas (maybe London). I guess that means I believe in the mythical soft landing (and unicorns!)...

To be honest though that's based largely on intuition and what I've seen happening around me in the E Midlands in the last few months. Stagnant as a scummy pond.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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