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Forecasting Today, Ten Years Ago

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I keep recommending this chap's book, Conquer the Crash, although I don't agree with all his recommendations (because I think there could be hyperinflation, not deflation). I just got this newsletter (sorry no link, but here's the meat):

That pretty much takes the biscuit for accurate forecasting.

Spout enough vague ******** and some of it is bound to be right at some point in the future. Then selectively pull out those lucky few 'predictions' and bingo! Instant forecasting guru. This tripe is up there with Nostradamus and his 'amazing' forecasts.

You can fool some of the people...

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I don't think it was vague to mention increasing xenophobia, conflict and a burgeoning police state coming after the market turns (2000), back in 1995 when the worst the masses were worrying about was a stain on Monica Lewensky's dress, and most people were feeling nascently dot-com optimistic.

Don't you remember the feting of The End of History?

I take it all back - you're dead right. What were the chances that somewhere in the world, at some unspecified point in the future, there might be xenophobia, conflict or a police state? Those things had certainly never occurred before in human history. This guy really went out on a limb with these detailed predictions... :blink:

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I don't think it was vague to mention increasing xenophobia, conflict and a burgeoning police state coming after the market turns (2000), back in 1995 when the worst the masses were worrying about was a stain on Monica Lewensky's dress, and most people were feeling nascently dot-com optimistic.

Things always look better looking back. I seem to recall many worrying the Balkans war would extend to much of E Europe, Turkey and beyond.

I recall tensions with China, Russia on the brink, Chechnya, Y2K on the horizon, AIDS, people terrified the housing slump was about to return following years of neg - eq, empty Indian restaurants (following the recent recession), Banks shutting branches wholesale (the end of the service sector), British manufacturing in terminal decline. Salmonella. Mad Cow etc

Opportunity is always harder to spot in the present tense.

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I don't think it was vague to mention increasing xenophobia, conflict and a burgeoning police state coming after the market turns (2000), back in 1995 when the worst the masses were worrying about was a stain on Monica Lewensky's dress, and most people were feeling nascently dot-com optimistic.

Don't you remember the feting of The End of History?

With all due respect Durch, if P was predicting the asset bubble collapse of 2000 - 2001, he was only right wrt stocks. Property kept on motoring. In fact 1995 represented the nadir for UK housing, so what use were these predictions? He was also 5 years too early in his predictions of a stock market collapse. That's half an asset class cycle. As for Mid-East / West tensions, they only became apparent to the man on the street in 2001, but they had been bubbling along forever. As I recall folks from his stable were actually predicting the rise of the far right in europe, so the flavour of the xenophobia was even off key. Sorry, but I ain't impressed. The fact is Precter only has one gear : doom. I can't see how being a perma-bear is any better than being a perma bull. But stopped clocks are always right once a cycle. Th equestion to ask is, does that make them useful?

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  • 302 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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