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Casual Observer

Us Inflation On The Turn?

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It could yet prove that the BoE is ahead of the Fed in this IR hiking cycle.

We had our 'pause' last August, which may yet be reversed in September / October, possibly signalling the next hiking cycle for the UK.

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Yeah, but their 'official' inflation figures are as distorted as ours!!

They just don't want to raise IR....

Hyperinflation here we come (both sides of the Atlantic)

Edited by dnd

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http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/5218752.stm

With inflationary pressures easing in the US, I'm not expecting any more than a .25% hike here, if that.

I'm surprised RB or someone of his ilk hasn't jumped on this one <_< .

If you follow the link, you will find a headline based on a VERY carefully crafted statement from the head of the US Federal Reserve Bank.

In fact, it is GDP growth that is slowing, and while he may be correct in stating that "inflation remains moderate" the last monthly figures showed both headline and core CPI measurements increasing and above the Fed's target value.

I'm with dnd here; the US Fed. is desperately trying to avoid raising interest rates in the face of inconvenient data, after months of categorically stating they would be driven in their decisions by the selfsame data.

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Guest muttley

Excellent news for us Gold Bugs :)

I thought low inflation was bad for the price of gold. Why is this good news for gold bugs?

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Inflationary pressures are falling.

Huh? which ones?

Energy? (going up globally), housing? (still going up until they raise IR), taxation? (council taxes anyone?)

Edited by dnd

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I thought low inflation was bad for the price of gold. Why is this good news for gold bugs?

Because if you believe / think and spin hard enough you can make black = white.

For instance, the higher interest rates go the greater the opportunity cost of holding gold (bearish fo gold price). Or maybe you might consider held interest rates as not only doveish, but outright wreckless and thus a guarantee of future rampant inflation.

Ever wondered why I am so cynical about the etiology of market crashes? Now you know.

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Huh? which ones?

Energy? (going up globally), housing? (still going up until they raise IR), taxation? (council taxes anyone?)

According to the article:

the growth in the economy is slowing,

modest wage increases

Inter-firm competition

increased energy efficiency offsetting energy cost increases

Analysts are now trying to predict if and when rates will go higher, with some reckoning on one more increase to 5.5% and others betting the current cycle of hikes has run its course.

Edited by Casual Observer

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I've been reading these guys for years now, they are perma bears on stock market and now the housing market in US, they believe that the bursting of the dotcom bubble still hasn't fully played out yet, they alway back their argument up with stats/data. The 1st link is re. bernanke and ir's in US, a good read

http://www.comstockfunds.com/index.cfm/act.../startrow/2.htm

http://www.comstockfunds.com/index.cfm/act.../startrow/1.htm

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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