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Realistbear's Lr Quarterly Figures Are Interesting

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Guest wrongmove

I see detached houses in Purbeck are rising by 90% in a year:

NAME PRICE (£) QUARTER

Purbeck £381,157 22.2%

That's very boring returns.

Flats in Neath Port Talbot £104,605 72.7% QoQ :o:lol:

At the other end of the meaningless stats spectrum

Flats in Isle Of Anglesey £98,400 -45.7% QoQ :)

Check theses figure here

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/in_d...counties.stm?fq

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That's very boring returns.

Flats in Neath Port Talbot £104,605 72.7% QoQ :o:lol:

At the other end of the meaningless stats spectrum

Flats in Isle Of Anglesey £98,400 -45.7% QoQ :)

Check theses figure here

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/in_d...counties.stm?fq

What!? Could it be that these stats, non-mix and volume-adjusted, are meaningless? Why would RB use them, if that were the case? Will he now stop, do you think?

"Reels away in shock"

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What!? Could it be that these stats, non-mix and volume-adjusted, are meaningless? Why would RB use them, if that were the case? Will he now stop, do you think?

Oh, I sincerely hope not.

RB is the the most entertaining poster on HPC by a mile...

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Guest wrongmove

Oh, I sincerely hope not.

RB is the the most entertaining poster on HPC by a mile...

:lol:

Don't worry, he won't stop. Realist Bear won't respond to this thread because he is bang to rights, but you can be sure he will be highlighting away for our benefit in no time.

:P

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:lol:

Don't worry, he won't stop. Realist Bear won't respond to this thread because he is bang to rights, but you can be sure he will be highlighting away for our benefit in no time.

:P

IR's rising by 0.25% in Timbuctoo. "Crash can't be far off now"

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IR's rising by 0.25% in Timbuctoo. "Crash can't be far off now"

Chaffinch sneezes in Peterborough.

Bird Flu Armageddon only days away!

Time to offload those interest rate sensitive assets NOW.

Edited by Without_a_Paddle

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Chaffinch sneezes in Peterborough.

Bird Flu Armageddon only days away!

Time to offload those interest rate sensitive assets NOW.

:lol::lol:

RealistBear does find some pretty interesting stuff, but you have got him off to a tee! :lol::lol:

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Come on guys, we shouldn't really take the pish out of forum users, we just end up looking like a bunch of discredited unorganised muppets :(

There are some wild claims on here, but all you can do is post your opinion to counter their points, having a pop at people is a bit low.

:)

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His figures have been dis-credited time and time again, yet he still posts them in just about every thread from a person asking the question "should I buy".

They are pointless figures :)

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His figures have been dis-credited time and time again, yet he still posts them in just about every thread from a person asking the question "should I buy".

They are pointless figures :)

Funny how the Land Registry figures are only "discredited" by the Bulls and Trolls? And not only discredited in their minds, but time and time again! I wonder why that is? <_<

Dramatic as they are, the LR figures will not go away and they are based on actual sales rather than the hype we see from the VIs that base their "precictions" on hoped for "asking prices." Better, IMO, to use factual information that simply takes actual prices compared Q by Q to come up with a plus or minus for any given area. Its hard to accept that the market is sinking in places but as Frank said, "That's life."

Just for kicks, here are the latest stats for Worcs, near where I live:

Wychavon

£302,133 -3.4% -1.9% 164

Malvern Hills

£288,012 -0.3% -10.7% 77

Worcester

£247,321 -2.3% -5.6% 94

Wyre Forest

£243,680 0.4% 1.4% 78

Redditch

£219,492 -10.4% -7.7%

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/in_d...county106.stm?d

Sources:
England and Wales
The information above is based on figures provided by the Land Registry of England and Wales.
Figures for England and Wales are for the period January to March 2006.

Spin it with day weighted, seasonal adjustment, time delayed, cost adjusted, mixed influenced but you are still left with a bear market.

I see detached houses in Purbeck are rising by 90% in a year:

NAME PRICE (£) QUARTER

Purbeck £381,157 22.2%

Interesting that you attribute the LR data to me. In reality, the figures were actually compiled by the LR and posted by the BBC. Are you somehow trying to create a transferance by attributing distasteful data to an unofficial source to somehow use that as an attack on credibility?

Some areas went down which simply demonstrates that not everywhere is seeing gains. HPCs are never uniform with outbreaks here and there until the entire market is consumed with the selling frenzy. Imperfect as the LR data is, it is far better than the VI data based on hypothetical asking prices and Rightmove style exaggerated price seeding:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/in_d...counties.stm?fq

Shropshire

£125,289 -0.2% 17.5% 93

Tyne And Wear

£105,236 -0.3% 14.6% 1015

West Berkshire

£157,276 -0.4% -1.3% 122

Brighton And Hove

£168,236 -0.5% 5.6% 666

Warwickshire

£131,773 -0.7% -2.6% 297

Bracknell Forest

£160,586 -1.1% 15.2% 87

Cornwall

£152,284 -1.1% 5.2% 243

Cheshire

£142,913 -1.1% 1.2% 227

Reading

£155,804 -1.2% -4.3% 189

City Of Derby

£110,279 -1.2% 1.7% 73

Halton

£109,967 -1.2% 15.7% 67

Hertfordshire

£160,781 -1.3% 1.9% 1085

Hampshire

£142,926 -1.5% 3.7% 847

Dorset

£150,988 -1.7% 5.5% 381

Thurrock

£120,168 -1.8% -3.4% 165

Luton

£103,822 -1.8% 8.4% 128

Leicester

£122,409 -1.9% 6.1% 100

Bridgend

£87,971 -2.0% -21.7% 18

South Gloucestershire

£120,266 -2.1% 10.5% 96

Cardiff

£135,143 -2.2% -11.5% 246

Buckinghamshire

£168,269 -2.9% 3.5% 263

Lancashire

£116,867 -3.1% -2.2% 448

Bedfordshire

£113,570 -3.4% 3.1% 263

Lincolnshire

£91,619 -3.4% 4.3% 126

Medway

£117,245 -4.1% 1.1% 142

Bournemouth

£155,253 -4.2% -2.2% 511

Wrekin

£82,346 -4.4% -5.2% 35

York

£146,152 -5.0% 6.2% 92

Northamptonshire

£105,262 -5.5% -0.6% 301

Wiltshire

£124,205 -5.8% -2.8% 207

East Sussex

£126,526 -5.9% 2.1% 698

Swindon

£117,935 -5.9% 3.9% 120

Suffolk

£120,859 -6.4% -1.6% 266

Northumberland

£88,942 -6.4% 10.2% 154

Middlesbrough

£112,181 -6.7% -0.8% 29

Derbyshire

£124,907 -6.9% -2.7% 159

Slough

£136,206 -7.1% 3% 135

Newport

£94,190 -7.2% -7.8% 29

Cambridgeshire

£133,266 -7.5% -5.6% 206

North Somerset

£126,505 -7.7% -5.7% 196

Rutland

£111,549 -7.7% -13.2% 7

Gwynedd

£96,409 -8.1% 0.5% 14

Warrington

£114,340 -8.2% 14.4% 64

Leicestershire

£103,064 -8.3% -9.0% 118

Windsor And Maidenhead

£205,851 -9.5% -3.3% 114

Denbighshire

£76,944 -9.7% -11.1% 9

North East Lincolnshire

£72,734 -10.2% -1.1% 29

Flintshire

£115,329 -10.4% -22.0% 24

Herefordshire

£119,682 -11.4% 4.6% 51

Blackpool

£104,942 -11.5% 21.6% 65

Swansea

£131,791 -13.3% 0.8% 102

Wrexham

£109,058 -16.3% 34.9% 17

Stoke-On-Trent

£80,983 -16.5% 42.6% 29

Redcar And Cleveland

£70,930 -18.6% -0.3% 23

Pembrokeshire

£106,132 -23.3% 3.9% 26

Ceredigion

£94,500 -26.4% -17.4% 3

Isle Of Anglesey

£98,400 -45.7% N/A 5

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Guest wrongmove

From the Land Registry website:

Where the volumes shown are small the average price may not be representative.

http://www.landreg.gov.uk/propertyprice/aboutppr.asp

Rightmove are the only main index which uses asking prices (Home also use asking prices, but has not acheieved any media coverage). So you have to treat Rightmove's figures for what they are, but they can provide an early indication of seller confidence levels.

Nationwide and Halifax use prices agreed at mortgage approval time (after the buyer has paid surveyors fees and mortgage fees).

ODPM (now called something else) uses actual sale price.

The interesting thing is that all the indices match pretty well when you plot them over a resonable time scale. For this reason, the Halifax, Nationwide and even Rightmove figures can be useful.

LR is definitive data, but it is very old (it can take six months plus before a house price is recorded by LR, then another 2-3 months before they publish), but most importantly, it is not mix adjusted. So if a few big houses sell one quarter, the averages will be be falsely dragged up. Conversely, if many smaller properties sell, the averages will be falsley dragged down. These effects smooth out eventually, but only over years, not months, particularly when you are considering just a small region, or property type. The LR has QoQ figures ranging from +72% to -46% for the last quarter !!!

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/in_d...counties.stm?fa

Check out Neat Port Talbot flats, up 72% QoQ, 102.5% YoY

FYI :)

Interesting that you attribute the LR data to me. In reality, the figures were actually compiled by the LR and posted by the BBC. Are you somehow trying to create a transferance by attributing distasteful data to an unofficial source to somehow use that as an attack on credibility?

I don't think CO attributed the figures to you, he just critisised the wilful way you portray them to support your argument. Even the LR themself state that figures based on a small sample may not be representative.

And I am neither a bull or a troll. I have been posting here for considerably longer than you have, in fact, without a single post being reported. Resorting to name-calling doesn't really strengthen your case. I am an FTB, waiting in the hope of a bargain later. Just because I am not delusional, doesn't make me a bull or a troll.

So cut and paste you last post (again), and insert it under this one !!

:P

DYOR !

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What!? Could it be that these stats, non-mix and volume-adjusted, are meaningless? Why would RB use them, if that were the case? Will he now stop, do you think?

"Reels away in shock"

If you take a small enough town you will find that the disparity between selling prices vary as to what is sold.

Trust me, Living in Devon and with the land registry suggesting stagnation and even rises in some areas I can see myself significant price drops..

50% of the country has been dropping since 2004… according to the land registry.

All markets change, a bull is always eventualy wrong and a bear is always eventually right, it has always been this way..

And all of the Bulls arguments always avoid the simple and easiest one..

It is just cyclical. It's all in the timing, and when speculating take extreme care not to be the last one speculating.

A true bull knows when to get of.

I hate high house prices, but I was bullish about it until 2003.

Wrong to be bearish until 2004/5

And right to be bearish now.

The bear you see, he knows when to sleep, hibernate and to wake when things are right again.

The bull is mindless.

That is where the analogies were drawn from.

I am sure that I could find a town where in 2005 three mansions sold and in 2006 only a studio flat.

But to take those figures and claim that house prices had plunged 300% would be just wrong.

This can also be taken the other way of course..

None on this site are here to win an argument, for there can be none, it is cyclical..

Prices are dropping, and dropping exactly where they were always going to start to drop.

Its not rocket science, and hand on your heart would you actually admit that it will surprise you that it has failed.

Trust me, to read what the IMF say about this market only the foolish or those who have not read it are still investing.

The chief economical powers from the largest economies of the world have looked at this market and condemmed it.

The Economy cannot sustain it, that is clear, people trying to do so will get stung.

The economy is powerful, it is cyclical as it will always return to it's ballence.

It does not care how much you think your house is worth, and niether should you.

The only person whose opinion matters is the person who you sell to.

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  • 339 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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