Residential Housing Is The Only Safe Bet

[BigBang]

From the time I was first seriously contemplating investing in residential housing (as an owner occupier) in 2000 I’ve always been convinced that it was the wrong move and that prices were too high to be affordable or sustainable so I should wait until they drop. Instead I’ve put my money into the stock market, managed funds, and high interest deposits. I’ve made and lost money on the stock market (overall slightly up but only about 5%) and I’ve lost half of my deposit interest in tax. Meanwhile my friends and colleagues who invested in residential property at the same time are sitting on a pile of equity in their houses, some have paid their properties off completely by selling other houses and using the equity to pay off their mortgages. Some of my mates have sold their investment properties and spent the money on year-long overseas holidays, cars, etc. Meanwhile after all of my investing in shares and cash deposits I still only have enough money to afford a deposit on a small 2 bed flat with a big mortgage, where in 2000 I would have got a 3 bed flat or house with the same money and been sitting pretty on a pile of equity by now like my mates.

In any other investment class I would have been right with my judgment of the housing market in 2000, but over the last 6 years I’ve finally come to the conclusion that I was wrong and my mates were right. There is no completely safe bet but residential housing is the closest thing to it particularly in London and the South East where immigration keeps rental property in demand. I’ve summarised my reasoning below (most of which have already been debated on this forum):

1. VIs have control of the media in the UK and have influence of key decision/policy makers – EAs, Banks, Trade and Industry Groups all ensure that their mates in the media keep pumping out the house price spin and keep the interest rates down. It was no surprise that the key component of the Home Information Packs disappeared before they even saw the light of day given how strong an influence the VIs have over Government policy.

2. Baby Boomers hold most of the assets and are in positions of power – baby boomers bought most of the housing assets in the UK when they were cheap and they are coming up to retirement in the next 5-10 years. They also happen to be the demographic that holds the most power at the moment in relation to key government policy, Bank of England decisions, etc. There is no way that they will let house prices fall very far considering they expect to live off the equity and income for their retirement.

3. Residential Housing is one of the few Capital Gains Tax free shelters – this gives residential a huge advantage over almost all other investments. It encourages owner occupiers to use houses as their main investment vehicle by upgrading where possible to much larger houses than they require to maximise their tax free capital gain. It also allows all the BTLs out there to send their personal mail to their various investment properties for 6 month periods in order to claim that they were living there as an owner occupier and thereby reduce or completely eliminate the CGT payable on the property when they sell (most of my mates have done this).

4. Inflation is eating away at debt – as much as we would like to believe the statistics that inflation is low we all know that it’s much higher than the figures would have us believe. By stripping out house prices and rent or ignoring energy because “it’s only high oil prices causing this” we get told that inflation is low but as we all know the true figure of inflation is much higher. The Government, Bank of England, Industry Groups, are all very happy to let this happen because it helps to ease a big problem for them that people and companies have taken on too much debt in recent years. Inflation is steadily eating away at all the excess debt and it is also eating away at our cash savings by the same amount so it’s a one way winning streak for mortgagees and debtors. Even when the corrupt CPI inflation figure that the BoE is officially supposed to track is 25% above the target as it is now (2.5 vs target of 2) the BoE comes out and makes it clear that it has no intention of combating this with higher interest rates. By making fluffy statements about inflation bringing itself under control over the next couple of years they can let the debt keep on shrinking away with the real effect of inflation.

5. Immigration to the UK is at its highest ever which is increasing population and rental demand – The number of foreign nations working the UK topped 1.5m in 2005. Immigration from Poland is estimated at 228,000 over the last 2 years and this may be an underestimate. With other Eastern European states joining the EU this will only increase. This means high density housing particularly in London and the South East will remain in demand and rents will increase with many immigrants packing into one house or flat in order to afford the rent. High density living will support higher house prices for BTLs going forward.

6. Policy makers will ensure house prices do not collapse – there is such a fear of the amount of debt out there at the moment that policy makers such as the BoE and the Government will ensure that house prices do not collapse. They know if house prices collapsed then the economy would collapse. No one wants to be laid with the blame of pricking the debt bubble so the Government and BoE will do everything in their power to ensure this does not happen on their watch – even if it means inflation goes sky high again. If things start looking bad on the jobs front or on the global economy they will just drop interest rates quickly like they did in 2001/2002 to ensure the market is flooded with liquidity to support the economy and house prices.

It’s time for me and all of you lot to face up to the facts. Residential housing is not a normal investment so normal investment principals do not apply. The VIs, Government, Banks, and BoE will continue to do everything in their power to ensure a HPC does not occur. For home owners and BTLs it’s pretty much a one way bet!

[Van]

What utter shite.

Anything that can go up in price can come down.

[Guest Bart of Darkness]

The VIs, Government, Banks, and BoE will continue to do everything in their power to ensure a HPC does not occur.

And if their powers should fail?

[Realistbear]

Its all a question of timing. The Great Crash (1989-96) was followed by the HPI mountain of today. 4 years after the Great Crash was still a good time to buy as the run up had not really begun by that time. The best years were 2001-2004 with 2005 the first sign that it wasn't going to last forever.

Stocks outperform houses 2:1 over the LONG haul. Again its all timing. I STM'd in 2003 and bought into stocks but saw trouble coming and bailed in early May before this current correction. My stocks outperformed house prices by an enormous margin 2003-2006. You just have to have good instincts and know when to get out.

Golden rule: don't ever buy at the top. The top of our housing market was in 2005 with a few areas peaking a little more in 2006. My area, Stratford, is down 8.8% YoY (Detached) according to the Land Registry and with 10% plus returns on stocks over the same period it was a good time to be renting. The next 10 years should see some sizeable falls and long periods of stagnation.

[woof]

4. Inflation is eating away at debt – as much as we would like to believe the statistics that inflation is low we all know that it’s much higher than the figures would have us believe. By stripping out house prices and rent or ignoring energy because “it’s only high oil prices causing this” we get told that inflation is low but as we all know the true figure of inflation is much higher. The Government, Bank of England, Industry Groups, are all very happy to let this happen because it helps to ease a big problem for them that people and companies have taken on too much debt in recent years. Inflation is steadily eating away at all the excess debt and it is also eating away at our cash savings by the same amount so it’s a one way winning streak for mortgagees and debtors. Even when the corrupt CPI inflation figure that the BoE is officially supposed to track is 25% above the target as it is now (2.5 vs target of 2) the BoE comes out and makes it clear that it has no intention of combating this with higher interest rates. By making fluffy statements about inflation bringing itself under control over the next couple of years they can let the debt keep on shrinking away with the real effect of inflation.

Just to take this one point in isolation, real inflation is undoubtedly higher than CPI or RPI. However, a major reason for this fiddle is to keep wage inflation low, and it's only wage inflation that erodes debt. Therefore, by effectively deflating real earning in this way, debt barely erodes, if at all.

Also, while savings will erode in terms of what they can actually buy (not specifically houses), so long as they increase in line with earnings, their value can in one sense be maintained.

[Goat]

It's been a long time since we've had an awooogaaa but this might be one.

[MarkG]

Therefore, by effectively deflating real earning in this way, debt barely erodes, if at all.

And worse, disposable income drops, so people have less money left over to waste on paying mortgage interest.

[DabHand]

Just to take this one point in isolation, real inflation is undoubtedly higher than CPI or RPI. However, a major reason for this fiddle is to keep wage inflation low, and it's only wage inflation that erodes debt. Therefore, by effectively deflating real earning in this way, debt barely erodes, if at all.

Also, while savings will erode in terms of what they can actually buy (not specifically houses), so long as they increase in line with earnings, their value can in one sense be maintained.

Hehe yet again people keep "forgetting" what actually erodes debt. Doesnt matter how much inflation might be...if your wages dont go up then that debt is just as big a deal to pay off. In fact its bigger cos its likely other inflating costs have eaten into your disposable income. Don't worry though you can always borrow more to help prolong the futility.

Sound familiar??

[HousePriceLottery]

The VIs, Government, Banks, and BoE will continue to do everything in their power to ensure a HPC does not occur.

If only they had thought of that the last two times. How could they be so stupid.

For home owners and BTLs it’s pretty much a one way bet!

Hurray! Finally an investment that's completely safe, and you can never lose money on but make huge amounts of money. Debt and poverty will be eradicated and everyone can be gazillionaires.

Why didn't they invent it sooner?

[the_duke_of_hazzard]

You bought stock in 2000, and have learned nothing from that experience?

[gfromls]

From the time I was first seriously contemplating investing in residential housing (as an owner occupier) in 2000 I’ve always been convinced that it was the wrong move and that prices were too high to be affordable or sustainable so I should wait until they drop. Instead I’ve put my money into the stock market, managed funds, and high interest deposits. I’ve made and lost money on the stock market (overall slightly up but only about 5%) and I’ve lost half of my deposit interest in tax. Meanwhile my friends and colleagues who invested in residential property at the same time are sitting on a pile of equity in their houses, some have paid their properties off completely by selling other houses and using the equity to pay off their mortgages. Some of my mates have sold their investment properties and spent the money on year-long overseas holidays, cars, etc. Meanwhile after all of my investing in shares and cash deposits I still only have enough money to afford a deposit on a small 2 bed flat with a big mortgage, where in 2000 I would have got a 3 bed flat or house with the same money and been sitting pretty on a pile of equity by now like my mates.

In any other investment class I would have been right with my judgment of the housing market in 2000, but over the last 6 years I’ve finally come to the conclusion that I was wrong and my mates were right. There is no completely safe bet but residential housing is the closest thing to it particularly in London and the South East where immigration keeps rental property in demand. I’ve summarised my reasoning below (most of which have already been debated on this forum):

1. VIs have control of the media in the UK and have influence of key decision/policy makers – EAs, Banks, Trade and Industry Groups all ensure that their mates in the media keep pumping out the house price spin and keep the interest rates down. It was no surprise that the key component of the Home Information Packs disappeared before they even saw the light of day given how strong an influence the VIs have over Government policy.

2. Baby Boomers hold most of the assets and are in positions of power – baby boomers bought most of the housing assets in the UK when they were cheap and they are coming up to retirement in the next 5-10 years. They also happen to be the demographic that holds the most power at the moment in relation to key government policy, Bank of England decisions, etc. There is no way that they will let house prices fall very far considering they expect to live off the equity and income for their retirement.

3. Residential Housing is one of the few Capital Gains Tax free shelters – this gives residential a huge advantage over almost all other investments. It encourages owner occupiers to use houses as their main investment vehicle by upgrading where possible to much larger houses than they require to maximise their tax free capital gain. It also allows all the BTLs out there to send their personal mail to their various investment properties for 6 month periods in order to claim that they were living there as an owner occupier and thereby reduce or completely eliminate the CGT payable on the property when they sell (most of my mates have done this).

4. Inflation is eating away at debt – as much as we would like to believe the statistics that inflation is low we all know that it’s much higher than the figures would have us believe. By stripping out house prices and rent or ignoring energy because “it’s only high oil prices causing this” we get told that inflation is low but as we all know the true figure of inflation is much higher. The Government, Bank of England, Industry Groups, are all very happy to let this happen because it helps to ease a big problem for them that people and companies have taken on too much debt in recent years. Inflation is steadily eating away at all the excess debt and it is also eating away at our cash savings by the same amount so it’s a one way winning streak for mortgagees and debtors. Even when the corrupt CPI inflation figure that the BoE is officially supposed to track is 25% above the target as it is now (2.5 vs target of 2) the BoE comes out and makes it clear that it has no intention of combating this with higher interest rates. By making fluffy statements about inflation bringing itself under control over the next couple of years they can let the debt keep on shrinking away with the real effect of inflation.

5. Immigration to the UK is at its highest ever which is increasing population and rental demand – The number of foreign nations working the UK topped 1.5m in 2005. Immigration from Poland is estimated at 228,000 over the last 2 years and this may be an underestimate. With other Eastern European states joining the EU this will only increase. This means high density housing particularly in London and the South East will remain in demand and rents will increase with many immigrants packing into one house or flat in order to afford the rent. High density living will support higher house prices for BTLs going forward.

6. Policy makers will ensure house prices do not collapse – there is such a fear of the amount of debt out there at the moment that policy makers such as the BoE and the Government will ensure that house prices do not collapse. They know if house prices collapsed then the economy would collapse. No one wants to be laid with the blame of pricking the debt bubble so the Government and BoE will do everything in their power to ensure this does not happen on their watch – even if it means inflation goes sky high again. If things start looking bad on the jobs front or on the global economy they will just drop interest rates quickly like they did in 2001/2002 to ensure the market is flooded with liquidity to support the economy and house prices.

It’s time for me and all of you lot to face up to the facts. Residential housing is not a normal investment so normal investment principals do not apply. The VIs, Government, Banks, and BoE will continue to do everything in their power to ensure a HPC does not occur. For home owners and BTLs it’s pretty much a one way bet!

bet that took a while to write

been queit at work?

[FrozenOut]

Real inflation eating debt away?

Now I don't have any debt, but if I did (say a mortgage) the below inflationary payrise I got this year would be eating in to exactly nothing.

Infact I do beleive, I got a payCUT this year, rather then a payRISE

Edited July 25, 2006 by FrozenOut

[enworb]

Yep. It's not in our hands. It's in the hands of the government, immigrants (legal or otherwise) and people that basically can still afford to buy.

I am surprised to see that you class yourself as a bear. Must be a hopeful bear. Have you thought about moving in with your mate(s) and paying them next to nothing in rent so that you can save up. I've thought about asking a mate to rent one of my rooms cheaply so that he can save but I know he'll spend the money on luxuries instead of saving.He str with his ex but all prfits bar £2k or so paid off debts they'd built up.

Edited July 25, 2006 by enworb

[the_duke_of_hazzard]

Real inflation eating debt away?

Now I don't have any debt, but if I did (say a mortgage) the below inflationary payrise I got this year would be eating in to exactly nothing.

Infact I do beleive, I got a payCUT this year, rather then a payRISE

Precisely. Without wage inflation, houses become less affordable as inflation rises. When I say affordable I mean what one can pay for, not what one can borrow. It's an important distinction here.

[Without_a_Paddle]

Stocks outperform houses 2:1 over the LONG haul. Again its all timing.

RB you are going to have to explain this one to me!

Go back a loooong time say to 1970 and look at a boomer with a dilemma.

Buy stocks (and rent a house) or buy a house?

A house would have cost him around £4k back then. Today it would be worth maybe £180k.

Can he beat this with the stock market over 36 years starting with £300? (£300 = his deposit on the house)

Don't forget to take into account the RENT money that has to be bled away from his stock market growth over the full 36 years. (in a few short years this will be BIGGER than the mortgage payments)

Also, for the last 11 years the homeowner has been investing in more property using the 'spare' money the poor old renter is giving to his landlord. (cos his mortgage is paid off)

I look forward to your reply...

Edited July 25, 2006 by Without_a_Paddle

[BigBang]

I understand cycles and timings and I'm not trying to say that they don't apply. They do apply, and house prices will accelerate and even decline slightly at different times as people take views on the market. I'll I'm saying is that VIs and governments have learnt from the last crash and know what would happen if there is another serious crash. I can't see where the crash is going come from and I've given six good reasons above that I think will help to ensure that HPC will not happen any time soon.

Apart from debating whether inflation will really eat away at debt (and it will as all of the producer price inflation, energy price inflation, etc eventually feed through to higher dividend profits and wages) no one has given any real view on all of the other points I listed or where they think the crash will come from. Do you really think the BoE wont just drop rates if things in the economy start getting shaky again?

[the_duke_of_hazzard]

RB you are going to have to explain this one to me!

Go back a loooong time say to 1970 and look at a boomer with a dilemma.

Buy stocks (and rent a house) or buy a house?

A house would have cost him around £4k back then. Today it would be worth maybe £180k.

Can he beat this with the stock market over 36 years starting with £300? (£300 = his deposit on the house)

Don't forget to take into account the RENT money that has to be bled away from his stock market growth over the full 36 years. (in a few short years this will be BIGGER than the mortgage payments)

Also, for the last 11 years the homeowner has been investing in more property using the 'spare' money the poor old renter is giving to his landlord. (cos his mortgage is paid off)

I look forward to your reply...

What if he'd rented and invested the difference?

What if he'd borrowed 3.7K then and invested the lot on the stock market?

[oracle]

I understand cycles and timings and I'm not trying to say that they don't apply. They do apply, and house prices will accelerate and even decline slightly at different times as people take views on the market. I'll I'm saying is that VIs and governments have learnt from the last crash and know what would happen if there is another serious crash. I can't see where the crash is going come from and I've given six good reasons above that I think will help to ensure that HPC will not happen any time soon.

Apart from debating whether inflation will really eat away at debt (and it will as all of the producer price inflation, energy price inflation, etc eventually feed through to higher dividend profits and wages) no one has given any real view on all of the other points I listed or where they think the crash will come from. Do you really think the BoE wont just drop rates if things in the economy start getting shaky again?

WHAT ON EARTH MAKES YOU THINK THE GOVERNMENT CONTROLS THE ECONOMY????

they don't,they are temporary costodians of a much greater animal.....

all the immigration in the world will NOT contain house prices if there is a limited amount of work to be had......it just degrades earnings for the existing populus,thereby eroding REAL spending power.

the spending on essential items like food will not diminish,but there are options that can be taken as far as fuel and shelter are concerned....my grandparents did it,so did the asians when they came here.....you can house 10+ in a 3-bed house for the same price as a singleton,barring sustainance.

costs the same to buy it and heat it whichever way....laundry etc costs a bit more.

...what we have now are a load of singletons in 2-bedders that could share,and at some stage will make the connection.....just needs things to get shitty and them to get hard-up until they figure it out!

..ps where does that leave the 2-bed newbuilds if the penny drops for them similtaneously??

Edited July 25, 2006 by oracle

[sun n sea]

In my business we haven't been able to put prices up for years- there is no inflation at all- if anything we have had to reduce prices to stay competitive.

For your average man or woman on the street who aren't employed by the government it's hard to see where the pay rises are going to come from to keep funding your super high house prices.

All the economies that have a solid foundation have a good manufacturing base- ours has been scrapped in favour of smoke n mirrors economics.

What benefits do sky high property prices bring into the country? What foreign revenue do we generate?

All those high paid IT and related jobs will be off to India just like the call centre jobs- then what do we do?

[Jason]

all of the producer price inflation, energy price inflation, etc eventually feed through to higher dividend profits and wages

Can you tell the Bank of England? They're having trouble grasping that concept.

Do you really think the BoE wont just drop rates if things in the economy start getting shaky again?

It's a global economy now. We can't drop rates if everyone elses has high rate, it will lead to weak sterling. Hence more inflation. If inflation got out of control, they would drop sterling like a hot potato.

[Without_a_Paddle]

What if he'd rented and invested the difference?

What if he'd borrowed 3.7K then and invested the lot on the stock market?

Are you for real?

If he borrowed £3.7k in 1970 what would this be secured on?

What interest rate would he have to pay on this unsecured loan?

If he could afford these extra payments and the rent then he could have simply BOUGHT A BIGGER HOUSE instead and enjoyed living in it (and get even more capital gain)

Also he could only 'invest the difference' whilst the rent was lower than the mortgage. After a few short years it will be the homeowner who will be able to 'invest the difference' as rents tend to rise with wage inflation.

Edited July 25, 2006 by Without_a_Paddle

[othello]

From the time I was first seriously contemplating investing in residential housing (as an owner occupier) in 2000 I’ve always been convinced that it was the wrong move and that prices were too high to be affordable or sustainable so I should wait until they drop. Instead I’ve put my money into the stock market, managed funds, and high interest deposits. I’ve made and lost money on the stock market (overall slightly up but only about 5%) and I’ve lost half of my deposit interest in tax. Meanwhile my friends and colleagues who invested in residential property at the same time are sitting on a pile of equity in their houses, some have paid their properties off completely by selling other houses and using the equity to pay off their mortgages. Some of my mates have sold their investment properties and spent the money on year-long overseas holidays, cars, etc. Meanwhile after all of my investing in shares and cash deposits I still only have enough money to afford a deposit on a small 2 bed flat with a big mortgage, where in 2000 I would have got a 3 bed flat or house with the same money and been sitting pretty on a pile of equity by now like my mates.

Unfortunately yuu made a bad decision in 2000 - property prices boomed and stock markets crashed. I bought in 1999 and sold in 2005 - tidy profit even after CGT. Now the situation is reversed. The housing market has yet to crash but is falling in most areas. Meanwhile I have made 35% on my stocks and shares in the last 2 years.

In any other investment class I would have been right with my judgment of the housing market in 2000, but over the last 6 years I’ve finally come to the conclusion that I was wrong and my mates were right. There is no completely safe bet but residential housing is the closest thing to it particularly in London and the South East where immigration keeps rental property in demand. I’ve summarised my reasoning below (most of which have already been debated on this forum):

For goodness sake, don't make the wrong decision AGAIN!!! Now is the worst possible time to buy.

1. VIs have control of the media in the UK and have influence of key decision/policy makers – EAs, Banks, Trade and Industry Groups all ensure that their mates in the media keep pumping out the house price spin and keep the interest rates down. It was no surprise that the key component of the Home Information Packs disappeared before they even saw the light of day given how strong an influence the VIs have over Government policy.

True, but nobody can buck the market, not even the Chancellor.

2. Baby Boomers hold most of the assets and are in positions of power – baby boomers bought most of the housing assets in the UK when they were cheap and they are coming up to retirement in the next 5-10 years. They also happen to be the demographic that holds the most power at the moment in relation to key government policy, Bank of England decisions, etc. There is no way that they will let house prices fall very far considering they expect to live off the equity and income for their retirement.

Yes, but the market is ultimately driven by FTBs and more recently BTLers. If FTBs don't buy the market stalls. If interest rates rise there will be a lot of forced sellers. Debt is at an all-time high, especially among the baby boomers. That's why the BoE etc are desparate to keep IRs low. The truth is we live in a global economy and it is outside their control.

3. Residential Housing is one of the few Capital Gains Tax free shelters – this gives residential a huge advantage over almost all other investments. It encourages owner occupiers to use houses as their main investment vehicle by upgrading where possible to much larger houses than they require to maximise their tax free capital gain. It also allows all the BTLs out there to send their personal mail to their various investment properties for 6 month periods in order to claim that they were living there as an owner occupier and thereby reduce or completely eliminate the CGT payable on the property when they sell (most of my mates have done this).

Your mates are commiting criminal offences by evading tax and will get caught. The Inland Revenue is not stupid. You make no capital gain on your main home unless you sell up - usually when you die.

4. Inflation is eating away at debt – as much as we would like to believe the statistics that inflation is low we all know that it’s much higher than the figures would have us believe. By stripping out house prices and rent or ignoring energy because “it’s only high oil prices causing this” we get told that inflation is low but as we all know the true figure of inflation is much higher. The Government, Bank of England, Industry Groups, are all very happy to let this happen because it helps to ease a big problem for them that people and companies have taken on too much debt in recent years. Inflation is steadily eating away at all the excess debt and it is also eating away at our cash savings by the same amount so it’s a one way winning streak for mortgagees and debtors. Even when the corrupt CPI inflation figure that the BoE is officially supposed to track is 25% above the target as it is now (2.5 vs target of 2) the BoE comes out and makes it clear that it has no intention of combating this with higher interest rates. By making fluffy statements about inflation bringing itself under control over the next couple of years they can let the debt keep on shrinking away with the real effect of inflation.

IF inflation was running at 15% I'd agree with you, but actually it is much lower and will take a long time to eat away debt!

5. Immigration to the UK is at its highest ever which is increasing population and rental demand – The number of foreign nations working the UK topped 1.5m in 2005. Immigration from Poland is estimated at 228,000 over the last 2 years and this may be an underestimate. With other Eastern European states joining the EU this will only increase. This means high density housing particularly in London and the South East will remain in demand and rents will increase with many immigrants packing into one house or flat in order to afford the rent. High density living will support higher house prices for BTLs going forward.

Immigration will reverse when the economy grinds to a halt and there will be a lot of un-let properties around. Incidentally, emigration is also at an all-time high. Net result is only slight population growth.

6. Policy makers will ensure house prices do not collapse – there is such a fear of the amount of debt out there at the moment that policy makers such as the BoE and the Government will ensure that house prices do not collapse. They know if house prices collapsed then the economy would collapse. No one wants to be laid with the blame of pricking the debt bubble so the Government and BoE will do everything in their power to ensure this does not happen on their watch – even if it means inflation goes sky high again. If things start looking bad on the jobs front or on the global economy they will just drop interest rates quickly like they did in 2001/2002 to ensure the market is flooded with liquidity to support the economy and house prices.

As I say, they might try but as Norman Lemont showed, you can't buck the market.

It’s time for me and all of you lot to face up to the facts. Residential housing is not a normal investment so normal investment principals do not apply. The VIs, Government, Banks, and BoE will continue to do everything in their power to ensure a HPC does not occur. For home owners and BTLs it’s pretty much a one way bet!

Long-term, prices will rise in line with inflation. You're right though, it is a one way bet right now - down! Thanks for the post. I have thought through all these arguments in the past and I still feel that getting (back) into the property market right now would be foolish. Go ahead and buy. Good luck.

Edited July 25, 2006 by othello

[Without_a_Paddle]

WHAT ON EARTH MAKES YOU THINK THE GOVERNMENT CONTROLS THE ECONOMY????

they don't,they are temporary costodians of a much greater animal.....

Well that's Gordon Brown officially 'off the hook' then...

[BigBang]

Othello, thanks for a good post replying to each of my points. I'm not buying for the next year anyway as I'm locked into a 1yr rent, but I still don't see any sign of a crash so I don't think anything will have changed too much between now and then. We can't hold out forever - it will be 7 years of waiting for me by this time next year.

[apom]

Uhm prices have been dropping across about 50% of the country since 2004 (land Registry)

New builds are down 12% in 2005 and those figures were produced by the people who built them.

My area shows stagnation and small rises. But I have friends stuck in substantial negative equity in a property whose rent does not cover 70% of the interest they pay monthly.

The governor of the Bank of England has said that prices cannot be sustained as have the IMF.

RE-read that.

The IMF have said that we cannot sustain our house prices.

You mention the VI press.. That is true, they do mould the figures, but they are doing so now to hide actual and substantial price drops.

The crash is here, it is amongst us.