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othello

The Housing Market - Goose Or Duck

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Someone was sold a goose because the salesman said it laid golden eggs. It did. Everybody got to hear about it and everybody started buying geese, convinced that they would produce golden eggs. The price of geese spiraled, but there were no more golden eggs. Yet so convinced were people by the farmers, the salesmen and of course the money lenders who saw a different kind of golden goose, that they continued to buy.

Someone then heard their goose go 'quack'. They didn't believe it. Others heard the same quacking and started to notice their geese waddling in a duck-like manner. They still refused to believe what they were hearing. Those cynics and poor people who had not been caught up in the goose frenzy realised they were looking at ducks. Hmmm, if it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck then it's probably a duck, they thought. Some noticed the ducks were limping - lame ducks, they thought. Still the unfortunate owners continued to believe in their geese.

Then one day the money lenders put up their borrowing rates and some of the goose-owners ran into trouble. Never mind they thought. We'll sell the geese and make a tidy profit. Unfortunately, by that time, there was nobody left with any money to buy them. Apart, that is, from those who could see that they were confronted with ducks, not geese and especially not geese who would lay a golden egg. So nobody bought.

Then the panic set it and everybody wanted to sell their birds. Prices started to fall. Still nobody was interested in buying. Eventually prices fell so far that people were tempted into buying again. This time they knew exactly what they were paying for - and it certainly wasn't a goose that was going to lay a golden egg. It tasted nice though and gradually everybody forgot about the golden goose.

Then one day a beggar came into town offered somebody a handful of magic beans in exchange for a cow...

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Someone was sold a goose because the salesman said it laid golden eggs. It did. Everybody got to hear about it and everybody started buying geese, convinced that they would produce golden eggs. The price of geese spiraled, but there were no more golden eggs. Yet so convinced were people by the farmers, the salesmen and of course the money lenders who saw a different kind of golden goose, that they continued to buy.

Someone then heard their goose go 'quack'. They didn't believe it. Others heard the same quacking and started to notice their geese waddling in a duck-like manner. They still refused to believe what they were hearing. Those cynics and poor people who had not been caught up in the goose frenzy realised they were looking at ducks. Hmmm, if it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck then it's probably a duck, they thought. Some noticed the ducks were limping - lame ducks, they thought. Still the unfortunate owners continued to believe in their geese.

Then one day the money lenders put up their borrowing rates and some of the goose-owners ran into trouble. Never mind they thought. We'll sell the geese and make a tidy profit. Unfortunately, by that time, there was nobody left with any money to buy them. Apart, that is, from those who could see that they were confronted with ducks, not geese and especially not geese who would lay a golden egg. So nobody bought.

Then the panic set it and everybody wanted to sell their birds. Prices started to fall. Still nobody was interested in buying. Eventually prices fell so far that people were tempted into buying again. This time they knew exactly what they were paying for - and it certainly wasn't a goose that was going to lay a golden egg. It tasted nice though and gradually everybody forgot about the golden goose.

Then one day a beggar came into town offered somebody a handful of magic beans in exchange for a cow...

You saying the housing market is ducked?

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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