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Yes after 2 weeks of record-beating news on house prices and the consumer-economy, as the BoE gear up for the IR meeting, the VIs start the usual 10 day assualt of "please dont put up IR's cos the fragile economy cant handle it" kicking off with this one;

July retail sales growth eases slightly

Expect houseprice indexes to "soften" in next 10 days, plus worrying noises from CBI, Retailers, and economic "experts" then just after BoE announce another hold, along will pop a slew of new data to show it all going crazy again, and house prices up another £10 grand that hour.

I astonishes me how thick Mervyn King et all are, as the really do seem to take on board this "data"

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Yes after 2 weeks of record-beating news on house prices and the consumer-economy, as the BoE gear up for the IR meeting, the VIs start the usual 10 day assualt of "please dont put up IR's cos the fragile economy cant handle it" kicking off with this one;

July retail sales growth eases slightly

Expect houseprice indexes to "soften" in next 10 days, plus worrying noises from CBI, Retailers, and economic "experts" then just after BoE announce another hold, along will pop a slew of new data to show it all going crazy again, and house prices up another £10 grand that hour.

I astonishes me how thick Mervyn King et all are, as the really do seem to take on board this "data"

He may read RealistBear's items on this forum, which claim that prices are falling. That could stay his hand!

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Yes after 2 weeks of record-beating news on house prices and the consumer-economy, as the BoE gear up for the IR meeting, the VIs start the usual 10 day assualt of "please dont put up IR's cos the fragile economy cant handle it" kicking off with this one;

July retail sales growth eases slightly

Expect houseprice indexes to "soften" in next 10 days, plus worrying noises from CBI, Retailers, and economic "experts" then just after BoE announce another hold, along will pop a slew of new data to show it all going crazy again, and house prices up another £10 grand that hour.

I astonishes me how thick Mervyn King et all are, as the really do seem to take on board this "data"

Yep, its like Groundhog Day (month). BoE have lost all credibility.

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i noticed that the express ran a princess diana headline yesterday, and once again today. they cannot do this 3 days on the trot (can they?) so i am guessing that tomorrow will be something about the economy, interest rates, house prices (cooling as it's not a good time just yet to boast about high prices). so-called news, my ****.

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i noticed that the express ran a princess diana headline yesterday, and once again today. they cannot do this 3 days on the trot (can they?) so i am guessing that tomorrow will be something about the economy, interest rates, house prices (cooling as it's not a good time just yet to boast about high prices). so-called news, my ****.

Wanna have a virtual bet it's deffo on house prices? ;) I'm calling it 1-10 on!

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Gordon is tied to the Fed on the way down as he was on the way up. The US is bracing for a mild recession which spells mild recession ++ in the UK and the Eurozone. Gordon's inability to raise rates in the face of a growing trade deficit (he does not need a higher pound to make things worse) and a housing bubble (the economy could not withstand a full on crash) will be used by the BoE to do nothing again in August. A hike would prove devasting to the economy and send the stockmarket into an even steeper tailspin with a consequential loss of confidence all round. The rush to exit BTL after the recent figures showing yields are at a 4 year low would quickly become a stampede. All in all, a hike would be a quick and chaoitic end to 10 years of miracle economy and it ain't going to happen.

IMO, Recession is next on the agenda and higher IR hikes do not work in a down-cycle--they just accelrate the ride to the bottom.

The trend in house prices up to April of this year should pick up steam and as noted by the LR, most areas accross the UK have already sustained some considerable losses with my area down YoY 8.8% (Stratford-detached).

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Surely all Merv and his pals need to say is, "we've put up rates by .25% and we are still way below the long term average, what is your problem you VI scum".

The press etc are so onesided its unbelievable, no wonder most of the public still thinks its a good time to buy a property.

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I astonishes me how thick Mervyn King et all are, as the really do seem to take on board this "data"

* Sigh * If there were genuine reasons to increase interest rates, then the MPC would increase them. But crashing the housing market for your benefit is not within their remit.

The recently reported inflation spike was a result of higher energy costs; these are likely to drop out soon, bringing inflation back within the 2pc target. There are very few reasons for them to panic (Capital Economics predicts that inflation will dip sharply towards the end of the year and as we enter 2007). Even the claim that Sterling would tank as a result of the gulf between UK and US interest rates has proved to be utter garbage. Perhaps it is time for some of you to reassess your view point. :)

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I reckon - no change - it's too big a risk ATM

They might, however, fiddle with how inflation is measured....(again)

Edited by dnd

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* Sigh * If there were genuine reasons to increase interest rates, then the MPC would increase them. But crashing the housing market for your benefit is not within their remit.

The recently reported inflation spike was a result of higher energy costs; these are likely to drop out soon, bringing inflation back within the 2pc target. There are very few reasons for them to panic (Capital Economics predicts that inflation will dip sharply towards the end of the year and as we enter 2007). Even the claim that Sterling would tank as a result of the gulf between UK and US interest rates has proved to be utter garbage. Perhaps it is time for some of you to reassess your view point. :)

Spot on. I'm amazed at the number of people on here who think that all the MPC consider is house prices. Just look at the monthly minutes, and see the considerable breadth of factors they take into account. And they have been remarkably sucessful in keeping inflation within the objective band of tolerance.

And let's face it - RPI hasn't exactly sprinted away has it, so it's not down to the "exclusivity" of CPI, as many posters claim. If we'd kept RPI and a target of 2.5% I suspect IRs would be no different.

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* Sigh * If there were genuine reasons to increase interest rates, then the MPC would increase them. But crashing the housing market for your benefit is not within their remit.

OK, but I don't think people will moderate their spending - they are used to the MEW lifestyle - you just can't take it away

Inflation is going to go a lot higher than the BOE thinks - it'll be interesting to see how they react....

Edited by dnd

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Everyone I have asked has said their personal inflation has gone up a LOT more than 2-2.5% in the last year.

Try it yourself!!

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2.0% 2.2% 2.5%

Oh is that a trend I wonder what comes next, of course they're going to have to raise rates if not in August then soon after and it will be the 1st of many because as with the US they will have underestimated future inflation.

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Everyone I have asked has said their personal inflation has gone up a LOT more than 2-2.5% in the last year.

Try it yourself!!

Quite agree, OzzMosiz; my cost of living has increased significantly more than the stated 2pc (energy costs, petrol, etc). But that isn't the point; CPI continues to hover around 2pc, and RPIX isn't that far out either.

And I'm not sure how helpful it is to make direct comparisons with the US. Am I right in thinking US inflation is around 5pc?

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2.0% 2.2% 2.5%

Oh is that a trend I wonder what comes next, of course they're going to have to raise rates if not in August then soon after and it will be the 1st of many because as with the US they will have underestimated future inflation.

Are you deliberately being obtuse or are you really that thick? How long does it take for the full effects of a change in interest rates to reach the economy?

2 years.

What does the trend tell you there? Inflation below 2%.

Have you tried researching this area or do you just believe selected posters on this site?

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IMO, Recession is next on the agenda and higher IR hikes do not work in a down-cycle--they just accelrate the ride to the bottom.

I think you'll find that stagflation is next on the agenda as the Chinese start exporting inflation while the British public is way too far in debt to handle any rise in interest rates without causing a major recession.

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Guest Bart of Darkness
And they have been remarkably sucessful in keeping inflation within the objective band of tolerance.

They've kept the figures under control yes, as for inflation, well that's a different story.

But actually, he thought as he re-adjusted the Ministry of Plenty's figures, it was not even forgery. It was merely the substitution of one piece of nonsense for another. Most of the material that you were dealing with had no connexion with anything in the real world, not even the kind of connexion that is contained in a direct lie. Statistics were just as much a fantasy in their original version as in their rectified version. A great deal of the time you were expected to make them up out of your head. For example, the Ministry of Plenty's forecast had estimated the output of boots for the quarter at one-hundred-and-forty-five million pairs. The actual output was given as sixty-two millions. Winston, however, in rewriting the forecast, marked the figure down to fifty-seven millions, so as to allow for the usual claim that the quota had been overfulfilled. In any case, sixty-two millions was no nearer the truth than fifty-seven millions, or than one-hundred-and-forty-five millions. Very likely no boots had been produced at all. Likelier still, nobody knew how many had been produced, much less cared. All one knew was that every quarter astronomical numbers of boots were produced on paper, while perhaps half the population of Oceania went barefoot.

George Orwell, 1984

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Ignorant by name ignorant by nature

Please depart the site you have absolutely no use.

So the 2 year lag was news to you then?

Oh well - you'd better start reappraising all that you hold dear.

Can you afford to lose another £10??

Stagflation BTW, as another poster has announced will occur, is traditionally cured by reducing rates well below what the economy would normally accept as neutral.

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* Sigh * If there were genuine reasons to increase interest rates, then the MPC would increase them. But crashing the housing market for your benefit is not within their remit.

The recently reported inflation spike was a result of higher energy costs; these are likely to drop out soon, bringing inflation back within the 2pc target. There are very few reasons for them to panic (Capital Economics predicts that inflation will dip sharply towards the end of the year and as we enter 2007). Even the claim that Sterling would tank as a result of the gulf between UK and US interest rates has proved to be utter garbage. Perhaps it is time for some of you to reassess your view point. :)

Quote - The recently reported inflation spike was a result of higher energy costs; these are likely to drop out soon - Endquote

Not bloody likely - another energy giant (EDF Energy) have just announced (today) 8% increases for it's electricity and 19% for it's gas. Every few months at least one energy supplier annouces inflation busting rises. You, sir, are talking out of your behind.

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If we'd kept RPI and a target of 2.5% I suspect IRs would be no different.

I'm sure Gordon is thinking the same - lets move the goalposts [new CPI target of 2.5%] and hey presto - lower inflation!

Its a miracle!

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Wanna have a virtual bet it's deffo on house prices? ;) I'm calling it 1-10 on!

Looks like we have a winner!! :D

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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