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CPI 2.5%

Retail sales 0.9%

Mortgage lending record

M4 up massively

Short Sterling is dramatically down again today, it is no longer a question of will we get a rate rise this year but will we get two?

Personnally I think two is now a cert and a third in the 1st qtr of next year followed by a few more until we hit 6.25% sometime early 2008.

Quality its been a long wait but its going to be worth it :D

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CPI 2.5%

Retail sales 0.9%

Mortgage lending record

M4 up massively

Short Sterling is dramatically down again today, it is no longer a question of will we get a rate rise this year but will we get two?

Personnally I think two is now a cert and a third in the 1st qtr of next year followed by a few more until we hit 6.25% sometime early 2008.

Quality its been a long wait but its going to be worth it :D

:rolleyes:

When will you learn? Property prices always go up and interest rates always go down. :rolleyes:;)

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I've mentioned this in another thread and so far it's agreed that the government/BoE will do all they can to maintain the UK's new found wealth due to HP's doubling over a very short time.

They've started wityh lowering IR's to todays levels, scrapped the proposed hips policy , so I don't see them all of sudden making a lot of homeowners go into negative equity or even bankruptcy.

House prices are very high yet people are still buying them. Until they stop the gov/BoE won't do anything to intervene for fear of being accused of making a lot of homeowners fianancially worse off. And don't forget homeowners are the majority of voters.

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CPI 2.5%

Retail sales 0.9%

Mortgage lending record

M4 up massively

Short Sterling is dramatically down again today, it is no longer a question of will we get a rate rise this year but will we get two?

Personnally I think two is now a cert and a third in the 1st qtr of next year followed by a few more until we hit 6.25% sometime early 2008.

Quality its been a long wait but its going to be worth it :D

IR hikes will be the end of Gordon's career and the end of the Miracle Economy. IMO, the BoE will do nothing because the Fed may pause in August and because recession is on the horizon. Despite the June blip in retail sales (Big screen TVs) the figures out today show that consumer borrowing is dropping. The binging public is beginning to hit the wall and banks are getting more cautious. IO loans may be out soon as it appears the banks are getting scared in the face of defaults and possible law suits. All in all, not a healthy picture for the economy and higher IR will just tip it over the edge.

Imagine a dingy in the rapids with the waterfall about 100 yards out in front. There in the boat is Gordon and the muppets (BoE appointees) rowing frantically against the powerful current that is about to carry them over the edge.

Bottom line: the next HPC is already on track just sit back, relax, and enjoy the show.

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Here are the thoughts from Jonathan Ruffer (v successful fund manager over the years):

Jonathan Ruffer's IR thoughts

Most Significant Bit

"Our strong belief is that IRs will be reduced very sharply"

These are not empty words, these guys invest millions based on such macro calls

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Here are the thoughts from Jonathan Ruffer (v successful fund manager over the years):

Jonathan Ruffer's IR thoughts

Most Significant Bit

"Our strong belief is that IRs will be reduced very sharply"

These are not empty words, these guys invest millions based on such macro calls

Yesterday's news from the US carried a poll of some big fund managers who are very pessimistic about the markets. They are holding a lot of cash and are not venturing far into stocks. This spells recession IMO.

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  • 336 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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