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Realistbear

City Shocked By M4 Figures Out Today- Up 13.7% Yo Y

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http://www.iii.co.uk/news/?type=afxnews&am...;action=article

LONDON (AFX) - The Bank of England said M4 money, a broad measure of money supply, increased sharply in June, rising by 1.6 pct from May on a seasonally adjusted basis, for a
13.7 pct year-on-year rise.
The figures are
well
above analysts' expectations
for more modest increases of 0.7 and 12.3 pct respectively and follow rises of 0.7 and 11.3 pct in May.
Elsewhere, the BoE said M4 lending rose sharply during the month by 29.0 bln stg, up substantially on May's increase of 19.7 bln stg.
M4 lending refers to sterling loans made by the central bank, banks and building societies to the private sector.
Excluding the effects of securitisations, M4 lending was 30.7 bln stg higher in June, again well above May's 20.7 bln stg increase.

No wonder the HPC is being delayed! Gordon's been busy inflating the economy at a time when the rest of the world is tightening the money supply. Is No. 10 worth putting the nation at risk? :angry:

Edited by Realistbear

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Realistbear

What drives the volume of M4 lending? Is the volume closely linked to prevailing interest rates?

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These figures just make me feel sick.

The bankers and politicians in power are making a mockery of what it means to be a decent citizen trying to earn a living and buy a home based on real money, not this produce it from nowhere stuff. They're just encouraging everyone to binge- it disgusts me.

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Realistbear

What drives the volume of M4 lending? Is the volume closely linked to prevailing interest rates?

IMO, its the last breaths from the cheap Asian cash supply. Japan only began tightening on 20th March (the day that will live in infamy for the bloated asset markets) and the full effects will probably take at least 6 months to show up in the high street.

Gordon has direct control of the money supply through his policy setting powers at the BoE. The government can borrow at low rates of interest as long as the pound remains stable and gilts with low IR. If Gordon orders a hike at the BoE gilts will rise in tandem and money becomes more expensive making government debt more expensive to service.

Gordon is having to sell off more assets to feed his spending binge, he must keep the money flowing or its an end to his HPI-MEW based economy:

http://uk.biz.yahoo.com/20072006/214/gover...ergy-stake.html

hursday July 20, 10:25 AM

Government to sell British Energy stake

LONDON (ShareCast) - Power giant British Energy (LSE: BGY.L - news) confirmed today that the British government is looking to sell part of its stake in the group.

The problem he faces is what will he do to raise money once everything of value has been liquidated? At the rate his spending is increasing the deficit will grow to such propeortions that his trump card, the overvalued pound, may start to look a little less attractive to the world investors who thought Gordon had his act together.

Not long now.

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These figures just make me feel sick.

The bankers and politicians in power are making a mockery of what it means to be a decent citizen trying to earn a living and buy a home based on real money, not this produce it from nowhere stuff. They're just encouraging everyone to binge- it disgusts me.

I have to agree. This BoE are a complete joke. The rise is just ridiculous!

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Guest Alright Jack

http://www.iii.co.uk/news/?type=afxnews&am...;action=article

LONDON (AFX) - The Bank of England said M4 money, a broad measure of money supply, increased sharply in June, rising by 1.6 pct from May on a seasonally adjusted basis, for a
13.7 pct year-on-year rise.
The figures are
well
above analysts' expectations
for more modest increases of 0.7 and 12.3 pct respectively and follow rises of 0.7 and 11.3 pct in May.
Elsewhere, the BoE said M4 lending rose sharply during the month by 29.0 bln stg, up substantially on May's increase of 19.7 bln stg.
M4 lending refers to sterling loans made by the central bank, banks and building societies to the private sector.
Excluding the effects of securitisations, M4 lending was 30.7 bln stg higher in June, again well above May's 20.7 bln stg increase.

No wonder the HPC is being delayed! Gordon's been busy inflating the economy at a time when the rest of the world is tightening the money supply. Is No. 10 worth putting the nation at risk? :angry:

I couldn't find the bit that said the 'city' was 'shocked'.

As for those who are 'sickened' by the numbers, it's there for the taking. Available to all. Use it don't use it, it's your call. If you are happy with your decision then it doesn't make sense to be 'sickened'

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Japan only began tightening on 20th March (the day that will live in infamy for the bloated asset markets)

don't you dare think you managed to pass that WW2 reference by unnoticed :ph34r:

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I have to agree. This BoE are a complete joke. The rise is just ridiculous!

The Bank Of England are a farce with no balls!!

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I couldn't find the bit that said the 'city' was 'shocked'.

As for those who are 'sickened' by the numbers, it's there for the taking. Available to all. Use it don't use it, it's your call. If you are happy with your decision then it doesn't make sense to be 'sickened'

Some data is "above" expectations. Today's data was "well" above expectations. By such a wide margin that any City analyst would have fallen off his chair at such figures. "Shock" is an appropriate word when data reveals divergences of this magnitude.

My bet is that the sickness people are feeling is about their government setting such a poor example with borrowing and spending beyond its means. It is to come to an end soon and the great British public will be paying for the binge for a generation or more. Miracle Economy or not, no one can keep up this level of fiscal irresponsibility for long.

don't you dare think you managed to pass that WW2 reference by unnoticed :ph34r:

Yes! I was listening to a program last night and they rolled out FDR's famous bit on Japan and I can't help but make the connection. :) They may have lost WW2 but their power is greater now than they could have imagined back in 1941 when they launched their pre-emptive strike on Hawaii. World's No. 2 economy, world's Number 1 motor industry, "Made in Japan" now synonymous with quality etc.

Edited by Realistbear

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Some data is "above" expectations. Today's data was "well" above expectations. By such a wide margin that any City analyst would have fallen off his chair at such figures. "Shock" is an appropriate word when data reveals divergences of this magnitude.

My bet is that the sickness people are feeling is about their government setting such a poor example with borrowing and spending beyond its means. It is to come to an end soon and the great British public will be paying for the binge for a generation or more. Miracle Economy or not, no one can keep up this level of fiscal irresponsibility for long.

Yes! I was listening to a program last night and they rolled out FDR's famous bit on Japan and I can't help but make the connection. :) They may have lost WW2 but their power is greater now than they could have imagined back in 1941 when they launched their pre-emptive strike on Hawaii. World's No. 2 economy, world's Number 1 motor industry, "Made in Japan" now synonymous with quality etc.

so this Labour government will end very much as the last one did - with the counrty floundering in a sea of debt. Only this time, they have cunningly privatised the borrowing, so the public carry the can rather than the government. Cheeky.

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Guest wrongmove

I couldn't find the bit that said the 'city' was 'shocked'.

That will be VI spin from RB - never one to use the phrase IMHO. He does post some good links, but you have to read the actual articles, not the spin. This site will always by disregarded by "floating voters" on the HP debate, but hey, preaching to the converted is far more more fun ! :)

As for those who are 'sickened' by the numbers, it's there for the taking. Available to all. Use it don't use it, it's your call. If you are happy with your decision then it doesn't make sense to be 'sickened'

Absolutely - it's only money. It's not like the BoE are torturing babies or anything. If you think the pound is going to crash big time, you probably ought to buy a house now while your cash and earnings are still worth something. Foreign cash will keep prices up in international terms if the pound slumps. (IMHO :) )

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The runaway train

T'was in the year of '89 on that old Great Western line,

When the winter wind was blowin' shrill,

The rails were froze, the wheels were cold, then the air brakes wouldn't hold,

And Number 9 came roaring down the hill -- oh!

The runaway train came down the track and she blew,

The runaway train came down the track and she blew,

The runaway train came down the track, her whistle wide and her throttle back,

And she blew, blew, blew, blew, blew.

The engineer said the train must halt and she blew,

The engineer said the train must halt and she blew,

The engineer said the train must halt -- he said it was all the fireman's fault,

And she blew, blew, blew, blew, blew.

The fireman said he rang the bell and she blew,

The fireman said he rang the bell and she blew,

The fireman said he rang the bell -- the engineer said "You did like h***!"

And she blew, blew, blew, blew, blew.

The porter got an awful fright and she blew,

The porter got an awful fright and she blew,

The porter got an awful fright -- he got so scared he near turned white,

And she blew, blew, blew, blew, blew.

A donkey was standing in the way and she blew,

A donkey was standing in the way and she blew,

A donkey was standing in the way and all they found was just his bray,

And she blew, blew, blew, blew, blew.

The conductor said there'd be a wreck and she blew,

The conductor said there'd be a wreck and she blew,

The conductor said there'd be a wreck and he felt the chills run up his neck,

And she blew, blew, blew, blew, blew.

The runaway train went over the hill and she blew,

The runaway train went over the hill and she blew,

The runaway train went over the hill and the last we heard she was going still,

And she blew, blew, blew, blew, blew.

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http://uk.biz.yahoo.com/060706/323/gg8ke.html

UK base rates must rise to 6 pct to check asset price inflation - Congdon

LONDON (AFX) - The UK base rate is going to have to rise to 6 pct to get the money balances held by financial institutions under control, suggested Professor Tim Congdon today.

By Martin Fluck: 44-(0)207 422 4926; martin.fluck@afxnews.com.

COPYRIGHT

Copyright AFX News Limited 2005. All rights reserved.

The copying, republication or redistribution of AFX News Content, including by framing or similar means, is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of AFX News.

AFX News and AFX Financial News Logo are registered trademarks of AFX News Limited

In short, we're F*****

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The runaway train

T'was in the year of '89 on that old Great Western line,

When the winter wind was blowin' shrill,

The rails were froze, the wheels were cold, then the air brakes wouldn't hold,

And Number 9 came roaring down the hill -- oh!

The runaway train came down the track and she blew,

The runaway train came down the track and she blew,

The runaway train came down the track, her whistle wide and her throttle back,

And she blew, blew, blew, blew, blew.

The engineer said the train must halt and she blew,

The engineer said the train must halt and she blew,

The engineer said the train must halt -- he said it was all the fireman's fault,

And she blew, blew, blew, blew, blew.

The fireman said he rang the bell and she blew,

The fireman said he rang the bell and she blew,

The fireman said he rang the bell -- the engineer said "You did like h***!"

And she blew, blew, blew, blew, blew.

The porter got an awful fright and she blew,

The porter got an awful fright and she blew,

The porter got an awful fright -- he got so scared he near turned white,

And she blew, blew, blew, blew, blew.

A donkey was standing in the way and she blew,

A donkey was standing in the way and she blew,

A donkey was standing in the way and all they found was just his bray,

And she blew, blew, blew, blew, blew.

The conductor said there'd be a wreck and she blew,

The conductor said there'd be a wreck and she blew,

The conductor said there'd be a wreck and he felt the chills run up his neck,

And she blew, blew, blew, blew, blew.

The runaway train went over the hill and she blew,

The runaway train went over the hill and she blew,

The runaway train went over the hill and the last we heard she was going still,

And she blew, blew, blew, blew, blew.

Amen :D

nice one!

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Amen :D

nice one!

The engineer said the train must halt and she blew,

The engineer said the train must halt and she blew,

The engineer said the train must halt -- he said it was all the fireman's fault,

And she blew, blew, blew, blew, blew

01.jpg

The engineer.

gordon_brown.jpg

The fireman.

Edited by OnlyMe

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Despite the inflationary data, the BoE are unlikely to make any moves:

http://www.iii.co.uk/news/?type=afxnews&am...;action=article

LONDON (AFX) - The pound got a fillip after a raft of robust UK data shortened the odds of a Bank of England rate hike in August.
The flurry of UK data this morning, ranging from retail sales to mortgage lending and money supply all registered strong growth. And, they come on the heels of a jump in inflation earlier this week.
"The strength of retail sales in June will clearly increase expectations that the Bank of England could raise interest rates as early as August," said Howard Archer at Global Insight.
However, the central bank will also be aware that the World Cup would have played a big part in boosting sales in June and that July may well show a moderation, he said.
A strong bounce-back in food and drink purchases helped retail sales in the UK increase for the fifth consecutive month during June, the first such sequence since January 2004, official figures showed today.
Figures from the office for National Statistics revealed that retail sales, which account for around a third of total household spending, rose by 0.9 pct on a seasonally-adjusted basis in June from May. The rise tops expectations of a 0.2 pct increase.
On a year-on-year basis, sales were 3.7 pct higher, against expectations of a 2.8 pct gain.
"With the housing market providing some further reason to be upbeat on spending, those downside risks to consumption that have vexed the Bank of England for some time must be easing," said Daragh Maher at CALYON.
That the pound has not responded more vigorously to the numbers may reflect the fact that the currency had already enjoyed considerable gains in the last few days after the stronger-than-expected inflation release, he added.
On Tuesday, it was revealed that the annual CPI rate leaped to a 9-month high of 2.5 pct in June.
Also out today, the Council of Mortgage Lenders, which accounts for about 98 pct of all residential home loans, said mortgage lending hit a new peak in June, surpassing the previous record in May. The numbers were backed by data from the Building Societies Association and to a lesser extent from survey figures released by the British Bankers Association.
Opinion is still divided on whether the BoE will deliver a rate hike in August or failing that in November to coincide with the central bank's next two rounds of projections.
"The tone of next month's Quarterly Inflation Report will be critical in illustrating whether a 2006 rate hike is now a realistic prospect," said Maher at CALYON.
He, however, believes the BoE will wait until February 2007 to lift interest rates.
"But if the data stays this strong, the risk of an earlier move will grow," he warned.
Elsewhere, the dollar came back from sharp falls overnight when it was dented by speculation that US rate setters will not hike interest rates in August.
US Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke's testimony to the Senate yesterday was widely seen as dovish. He highlighted that cooling US growth levels may well help ease inflation.
But the selling overnight was too aggressive leading to fresh inflows into the dollar today.
Markets are starting to bet that the Fed will pause from its rate hiking cycle which started way back in mid-2004, at its next meeting on August 8. But upcoming data, such as the US jobs report on August 4, will also play a vital role in determining expectations.
The benchmark fed funds rate now stands at 5.25 pct, having risen from as low as 1.00 pct back in 2004.
Steve Pearson at HBOS pointed out that Bernanke expects a relatively modest slowdown in US GDP growth to levels seen as the long term average of between 3-3.25 pct in 2007.
Such a modest cooling would be the best possible scenario and Bernanke's forecast has been met with cheer in equities, commodities and emerging markets, he said.
He also pointed out that a slowdown in the US will dent growth in the rest of the world -- a scenario which will keep other central banks from hiking rates too aggressively.
"Interestingly recent minutes/bulletins already suggest the European Central Bank, Bank of Japan and Bank of England are beginning to focus on the risks posed by a deeper than expected US slowdown," he added.
Bernanke will be speaking in Congress again today, but his remarks are likely to be a repeat of yesterday's and therefore of limited value.

A lot of mixed data and enough to keep Gordon gambling on keeping rates accomodative in the hope that the US led slowdown will bring on a "soft landing" for housing and spending. The problem he may face is that inflation is more likely than not to get worse before it gets better as it appears that momentum is still moving to the upside. The huge levels of borrowing, both public and private, will do nothing to dampen inflation which will, eventually, force Gordon to hike rates. With REAL inflation at around 6% the current levels of mortgage rates are still negative (accomodative). Until that changes inflation will continue and people will still be able to borrow themselves out of trouble. My bet is that when Gordon is finally forced to act it will be too little too late and the mess that follows will be nasty.

I am beginning to believe that IR are going to be more important now than ever. With accomdative rates Gordon can overcome employment losses and huge deficits. His dilemma is that such policies gurantee very high levels of inflation. Go now pay later seems to be his policy.

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http://www.prosperityuk.com/prosperity/art...s/prosprop.html

just in case anybody doesn't understand

I like this bit!

As each year goes by, government created debt-free money is distributed and circulates in society in proportion to the M4 lending counterpart. Eventually the M4 lending counterpart will decrease, as the need for government borrowing decreases.

In time, levels of private indebtedness will also decrease since private indebtedness is often a function of national indebtedness.

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As for those who are 'sickened' by the numbers, it's there for the taking. Available to all. Use it don't use it, it's your call. If you are happy with your decision then it doesn't make sense to be 'sickened'

'There for the taking' just like drugs. In the end we will all suffer as a result of the follies of the debt addicts.

Edited by dog

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Realistbear what do you reckon the £ will trade at against the $ when the crap finally hits the fan (As surely it must :blink: ) ?

I am betting on a return to the historical averages of the past decade or so. 1.60's.

The world has a lot of confidence in Gordon right now as our media is pumping out nothing but good news about HPI and MEW. They appear to be overlooking the growing twin deficits, unemployment and inflation because cheap credit (accomodative IR) is masking the problems for now. The BoE are ignoring inflation in the hope that it will go away once the US economy slows and demand for our goods drops. As I see it, this will be catastrophic for the pound as the ensuing loss of confidence that will follow when the "Miracle Ecoonomy" stops being miraculous will be huge.

Its a time bomb for sterling and history shows that our currency is only as good as our ability to show the world healthy books. Gordon is doing a number on those by moving goalposts and hiking taxes and it will not be long before the currency markets rumble the underlying weaknesses. They no doubt already have but no one is sure when to signal the rush for the exits. When the pound slides it will be sudden, sharp and painful. I am not expecting much to happen until very late in the year. IN the meantime I am happy to make 5% on my US $ with just a dabble in some defensive stocks to keep things interesting (US utilities and Natural resources Exploration stocks).

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These figures just make me feel sick.

The bankers and politicians in power are making a mockery of what it means to be a decent citizen trying to earn a living and buy a home based on real money, not this produce it from nowhere stuff. They're just encouraging everyone to binge- it disgusts me.

From the original post:

"M4 lending refers to sterling loans made by the central bank, banks and building societies to the private sector."

Just to be clear, this isn't the government taking on new debt. It is private individuals and companies.

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These figures just make me feel sick.

The bankers and politicians in power are making a mockery of what it means to be a decent citizen trying to earn a living and buy a home based on real money, not this produce it from nowhere stuff. They're just encouraging everyone to binge- it disgusts me.

These figures just make me feel sick too.

The bankers and politicians in power are making a mockery of what it means to be in a democracy - it disgusts me.

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These figures just make me feel sick too.

The bankers and politicians in power are making a mockery of what it means to be in a democracy - it disgusts me.

How is the amount of private borrowing related to politicians and a mockery of democracy? I'm missing the link? :blink:

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  • 302 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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