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Can Uk Houses Really Jump Another 50%?

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The Government is currently pulling more breakneck U-turns than a teenage joyrider in a gravel car-park.

The latest is on Home Information Packs (Hips). A more detailed description follows, but essentially Hips were meant to improve the transparency and speed of property transactions. However, they now look set to be kicked into the long grass along with other half-baked Government ideas like ID cards.

We can’t say we’re disappointed. We have no doubt that the process of buying and selling property could be improved, but Government interference usually means more expense and hassle for all involved.

Many estate agents - though not all - are also pleased at the retreat. But we've got bad news for them - UK house prices are headed lower, Hips or no...

The original idea behind Home Information Packs was to speed up the home-selling process, and make sure fewer deals fell through.

The seller-funded packs would cost around £600 to £1,000 (depending on who you ask). They would contain all the legal data required, as well as a survey prepared by specially trained surveyors called Home Inspectors. This would - in theory - remove the need for buyers to get their own surveys done and allow the transaction to take place pretty much as soon as the two parties had agreed on a price.

The packs were due to be introduced in July 2007, and several estate agencies – most prominently, property website Rightmove – had invested a large chunk of money in gearing up to sell Hips.

So it was something of a shock for Rightmove and its shareholders when the Government effectively pulled the plug on Hips by deciding that the pivotal component – the survey – would be voluntary. Rightmove was forced to issue a profit warning, and shares tumbled 20% to 280.75p.

It turns out that there won't be enough Home Inspectors ready for the June 2007 deadline. Unfortunately for those who have already shelled out as much as £8,000 in training costs, it looks like their services now won’t be in half as much demand as they had hoped.

Parts of the pack will still be required, such as the legal documents. But many now expect the whole idea to be dumped before next year.

Anti-Hip protestors like TV’s Kirsty Allsop had decried the packs, claiming that housing transactions would grind to a standstill.

We're sure she'll be glad to see the back of Hips. But there are still plenty of good reasons to worry about the housing market.

Cheltenham & Gloucester reckon that a single quarter-point interest rate hike (which we could well see by September) would push housing affordability to its lowest since 1991. C&G say interest rates at 4.75% would mean the average householder spending 49.8% of their take-home pay on mortgage interest repayments alone.

Meanwhile a survey from Propertyfinder.com shows that UK homeowners are six times more likely to believe their area is likely to beat the national housing market than trail behind.

But as director Nicholas Leeming points out: “Prices can’t beat the market everywhere!”

This kind of delusion shows just how pervasive the "property prices only go up" mentality is. When most people believe prices can only rise, that's usually the point that they begin to fall - have we forgotten the tech bubble so quickly?

But aren't house prices set to soar another 50% over the next six years? That was the claim of a headline-grabbing report from Oxford Economic Forecasting (OEF) earlier this week, which said the average house price would top £300,000 by 2011.

Well, let's see. The OEF report was conducted for the National Housing Federation (NHF), the trade body for housing associations, who are currently campaigning to get more money from the Government to build and refurbish homes for low-cost rental and ownership. So the OEF's finding that affordability is set to keep falling is pretty convenient for the NHF.

It seems The Guardian thought so too – so it ran the figures past an economist. It reported: “Steve Wilcox, professor of housing policy at York University, said the OEF’s forecasts appeared to be robust if the underlying economic projection was sound.”

So what was the underlying projection? Well, for a start it assumes that interest rates average 4.5% for the six years to 2012. Given that they’re sitting at 4.5% right now and look set to rise, that seems optimistic to us.

The OEF also says earnings growth will be 4.1% to 4.4% over the same period, with house prices stretching to a staggering nine and a half times the average salary. David Orr, the NHF’s chief executive said: “Over the next six years we’ll see home ownership being pushed further out of the reach of middle earners and even those on relatively high incomes.”

But that begs the question – who will be buying all these houses? If people can't afford mortgage repayments, they won't be able to afford rents to cover them either. So unless buy-to-let investors remain uncommonly stupid (not to mention solvent) and keep subsidising their tenants' rents for the next six years, we just don't see how affordability could ever fall that far without a crash in the market.

Perhaps we're just not using the right underlying economic projections.

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this kind of common sense thinking won't make you any money in today's economy :blink:

I could not have said it better myself, this report is like fresh air, a welcome relief from all the rubbish that EA's speak!!

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unless buy-to-let investors remain uncommonly stupid (not to mention solvent) and keep subsidising their tenants' rents for the next six years, we just don't see how affordability could ever fall that far without a crash in the market.

Interesting choice of words.... "remain" uncommonly stupid!

Is there any evidence that they are wising up, certainly not according to the CML data :(

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Interesting choice of words.... "remain" uncommonly stupid!

Is there any evidence that they are wising up, certainly not according to the CML data :(

I noticed that. This was a carefully crafted report I think. Great to read! :)

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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