Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
Sign in to follow this  
lagos36

Crash ? What Crash.

Recommended Posts

As much as I would love to see a property crash I just cannot see it happening,although I find todays prices abhorrent,I just cannot visualise a time when prices could be any lower,these astronomical prices seem to be the norm now and you can either afford it or you can,t, if anyone can convince me otherwise I will be only too happy to hear from you.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

As much as I would love to see a property crash I just cannot see it happening,although I find todays prices abhorrent,I just cannot visualise a time when prices could be any lower,these astronomical prices seem to be the norm now and you can either afford it or you can,t, if anyone can convince me otherwise I will be only too happy to hear from you.

This post is proof that 'care in the community' doesnt always work.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This post is proof that 'care in the community' doesnt always work.

would you care to elaborate on that dog breath,or am I to assume that you think I am not the full shilling because I don,t see a crash happening.

Edited by lagos36

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It's no doubt different for me than it is for want-to-be homeowners because I own (well value minus mortgages on my place and my btl) but I am now finding myself thinking that £200K for a 3 bed semi an absolute bargain and £225k is still worth concidering.

5 years ago you could buy - as my cousin did - this type of property for less than £140k.

I think I speak for a majority of people when I say that we have gotten used to the rise in prices and must do all we possibly can ourselves to overcome the problem rather than wait for a crash.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Totally agree cannot really see prices dropping despite all the indicators our their.

It's like waiting for osama bin laden to knock on your front door, it's just not going to happen

Year after year we've had folk say it's gonna happen soon though look where we are today, I heard the other day their are more EAs than ever, a few have gone to the wall yes but I think they've just cashed in & are living on some nice greek island.

Whats that song 'dream dream dream'

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

would you care to elaborate on that dog breath,or am I to assume that you think I am not the full shilling because I don,t see a crash happening.

You havn't exactly used a rational process to support this assertion have you?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A morgtgage is basically just secured debt. The more expensive the house the bigger the debt.

As long as you continue to pay off your debt you keep the house. Big debts+Low interest payments=Big problems as far as I am concerned.

As long as base rates remain below 5% the delicate balence will continue. Houses will go up and people will borrow to capacity.

Hate to see the result if they reach 6% in the next 5 years.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

You havn't exactly used a rational process to support this assertion have you?

or indeed the correct keys while punctuating.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Regarding the HPC chart (as shown in this topic by Clint Eastwood! very good that) the trouble is we know we are on an upward curve but dont know if we are at the summit - The market may just be pausing for breath as happened on the previous boom cycle - Look there's a little ledge on the upward curve before it went up again!

Logic tells me that House prices are over-valued but I have not seen any proof that they are about to go down significantly.

As in a new topic posted today there was an article in yesterdays Daily Mail saying that prices are likely to increase by 50% in the next 5 years. The study said this will be mainly due to supply and demand. For example there are an increasing number of households consisting of one adult and there is also population growth. It may seem wrong but the mere fact that property becomes less affordable for many people does not necessarily mean that a price crash is going to happen. Over the past few years people have sold property whilst believing they were at a peak only to see further subsequent increases. Who's to say this will not continue for at least another 5 years due to the supply shortage? So I'd say don't be mislead that prices are about to crash unless there are definate signs.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Regarding the HPC chart (as shown in this topic by Clint Eastwood! very good that) the trouble is we know we are on an upward curve but dont know if we are at the summit - The market may just be pausing for breath as happened on the previous boom cycle - Look there's a little ledge on the upward curve before it went up again!

Logic tells me that House prices are over-valued but I have not seen any proof that they are about to go down significantly.

As in a new topic posted today there was an article in yesterdays Daily Mail saying that prices are likely to increase by 50% in the next 5 years. The study said this will be mainly due to supply and demand. For example there are an increasing number of households consisting of one adult and there is also population growth. It may seem wrong but the mere fact that property becomes less affordable for many people does not necessarily mean that a price crash is going to happen. Over the past few years people have sold property whilst believing they were at a peak only to see further subsequent increases. Who's to say this will not continue for at least another 5 years due to the supply shortage? So I'd say don't be mislead that prices are about to crash unless there are definate signs.

Not a lot of people know this but house prices are falling all accross the nation. Estate Agents are just not telling anyone, that's all:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/in_d...tml/region1.stm

The information below is based on figures provided by the Land Registry of England and Wales.

Figures for England and Wales are for the period January to March 2006.

Northumberland £149,225 -8.8%

Cumbria £143,851 -1.6%

Tyne And Wear £132,526 -0.3%

Stockton-On-Tees £128,643 -5.0%

Darlington £125,556 -5.6%

Durham £114,329 -4.3%

Redcar And Cleveland £109,289 -11.2%

Middlesbrough £108,982 4.7%

Hartlepool £98,770 -5.2%

East Riding Of Yorkshire £154,431 -4.5%

West Yorkshire £138,242 -1.1%

South Yorkshire £126,326 -1.4%

North Lincolnshire £122,869 -2.7%

North East Lincolnshire £102,179 -1.9%

Rutland £228,672 -7.7%

Leicestershire £170,145 -3.5%

Northamptonshire £158,537 -3.5%

Lincolnshire £147,659 -1.9%

Derbyshire £147,537 -3.5%

Nottinghamshire £146,871 -2.0%

City Of Derby £137,082 -0.3%

Leicester £134,130 0.3%

City Of Nottingham £119,797 -5.2%

Worcestershire £184,936 -3.3%

Warwickshire £184,860 -3.4%

Shropshire £184,664 -3.1%

Staffordshire £161,232 -0.1%

West Midlands £146,903 0.3%

Wrekin £140,819 1.2%

Stoke-On-Trent £89,910 -5.6%

Cheshire £185,036 -1.6%

Warrington £156,929 -4.5%

Greater Manchester £134,935 -2.1%

Merseyside £132,854 0.3%

Lancashire £128,806 -1.9%

Halton £127,289 -5.3%

Blackpool £119,112 2.8%

Blackburn With Darwen £98,762 -2.1%

Moray 101,031 -6.1%

Clackmannanshire 100,282 -6.8%

North Ayrshire 98,127 -1.9%

North Lanarkshire 96,363 1.7%

East Ayrshire 92,883 -10.3%

Orkney Islands 88,463 -10.3%

West Dunbartonshire 88,299 -7.4%

Shetland Islands 83,663 4.4%

Eilean Siar 75,640 -8.2%

Edinburgh, City Of 176,526 1.1%

East Renfrewshire 168,132 -8.8%

East Dunbartonshire 160,331 -8.6%

East Lothian 152,826 -7.5%

Stirling 144,367 -4.0%

Midlothian 134,238 -0.5%

Scottish Borders 130,622 -7.9%

Aberdeenshire 127,195 -3.4%

Highland 125,711 -3.4%

Glasgow City 124,370 -0.6%

Argyll And Bute 119,923 -5.9%

Isle Of Anglesey £145,033 -12.2%

Newport £144,790 -5.0%

Flintshire £142,754 -4.8%

Denbighshire £140,981 -1.9%

Swansea £139,153 -1.1%

Carmarthenshire £137,252 0.1%

Bridgend £133,572 -1.7%

Torfaen £120,546 -0.4%

Caerphilly £115,784 -1.5%

Neath Port Talbot £102,936 -2.6%

Rhondda Cynon Taff £93,453 -2.7%

Merthyr Tydfil £89,920 -4.8%

Blaenau Gwent £82,491 -7.4

Dorset £226,010 -0.5%

Devon £212,600 -0.3%

Wiltshire £209,024 -3.5%

Cornwall £203,006 -2.5%

Bournemouth £202,293 2.2%

Gloucestershire £201,799 -0.5%

North Somerset £185,780 -4.6%

Somerset £183,850 -1.5%

South Gloucestershire £182,959 -2.5%

City Of Bristol £178,116 0.6% -0.9%

Torbay £174,208 -2.0%

Swindon £155,868 -2.3%

Brighton And Hove £222,241 0.6%

West Sussex £221,415 -2.2%

Essex £212,460 -0.9%

Kent £206,628 -0.4%

East Sussex £198,541 -3.0%

Reading £196,094 -2.0%

Isle Of Wight £181,138 -0.6%

Milton Keynes £175,337 -0.6%

Thurrock £169,523 -0.6% -1.5%

Southampton £161,716 -1.3%

Portsmouth £154,803 0.6%

Medway £154,231 -2.1%

City Of London £313,388 -4.5%

Hammersmith And Fulham £1,401,250 -17.9%

Wandsworth £1,230,830 -11.2%

Lewisham £351,863 -22.3%

Waltham Forest £317,750 -18.7% -28.1% 6

Newham £226,026 -22.2%

Enfield £568,411 -13.7% -18.6%

Chelsea £2,020,714 -18.2%

City Of Westminster £1,819,466 -20.2%

Camden £1,224,703 -6.5%

Islington £519,102 -37.1%

Hackney £420,577 -15.3%

Harrow £538,874 -9.6% -13.9%

Lambeth £527,750 -2.8%

One VI agrees at least:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/5153140.stm

UK house prices go into reverse
House prices fell unexpectedly by 1.2% in June, according to Halifax, the UK's biggest mortgage lender.
The fall in prices follows several months where the UK housing market has been very buoyant, beating economists' expectations, particularly in London.
Householders were feeling the pinch because of rising utility and council tax bills, the Halifax said.

It all depends on what you read and who you believe. That's why I watch the local newspapers and see how prices are dropping from week to week. Nothing has gone up here for a year or more. 8.2% down in my area--Stratford--and that's in just one quarter!

Edited by Realistbear

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

2 things are going to happen very soon,first interest rates are going to start going up, second were going to see a recesion started by oil prices going thruogh the roof, you can come back and ask what crash then!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

2 things are going to happen very soon,first interest rates are going to start going up, second were going to see a recesion started by oil prices going thruogh the roof, you can come back and ask what crash then!

I totally agree.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I hope you guys are right ,at the moment I could not afford a 1 bed flat.

Mate, if you can't afford a 1 bed flat now, the reality is that if interest rates go up and a recession kicks in, you most likely still won't be able to afford one.

You have to hope the recession doesn't make you jobless, ride it out and then see what happens on the other side.

Recession's are not good news for the masses, just the vultures amongst us.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Realist Bear - can you tell me what postcodes you typed in to get those results for London? I find it very hard to believe that prices have gone down 37% in Islington.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Mate, if you can't afford a 1 bed flat now, the reality is that if interest rates go up and a recession kicks in, you most likely still won't be able to afford one.

You have to hope the recession doesn't make you jobless, ride it out and then see what happens on the other side.

Recession's are not good news for the masses, just the vultures amongst us.

A point well made. There is going to be no free lunch for anyone at the end of this diabolical mess.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Realist Bear - can you tell me what postcodes you typed in to get those results for London? I find it very hard to believe that prices have gone down 37% in Islington.

Dont believe that tripe, its realist bear using a small selection of statistics to support his argument.

Those figures just show what random houses prices sold for over a period of time. It doesnt show the diffence between the same houses, and therfore has no credability.

In places like islington the last results probably had a million+ pound house sold, and this time just average properties.

Its completly pointless posting them.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Vultures like BTLs and other people that borrow huge amounts without the capacity to it pay back? I'd have thought they'd suffer badly in recession, quite rightly.

Yes BTLs will suffer, but I spare no thoughts for them, neither pity nor a pointless schadenfreude.

There are a lot of people trying to live simple debt free lives.

Those who are waiting patiently, working hard, doing everything 'right' saving what they can.

Any recession will wipe many of these people out.

I'll be OK, as I've saved more than enough, but just because I'll be good, and the "evil" BTLs will be done for, doesn't make recession a good thing. It will devastate a lot of people who don't deserve it and painting it as something positive is naive at best.

btw, I can't understand your analogy between a BTLer and a Vulture.

A vulture is a bird who waits and waits and swoops when only carnage is left.

Hence the analogy between those waiting for a post recession market and a vulture.

Note sure why borrowing money you can't pay back is vulture like.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A point well made. There is going to be no free lunch for anyone at the end of this diabolical mess.

Sorry to have to disagree but those with big wallets and no need of a mortgage will get the free lunch.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Realist Bear - can you tell me what postcodes you typed in to get those results for London? I find it very hard to believe that prices have gone down 37% in Islington.

Realist Bear has been taken up on this before. What he has selectively quoted is priced of detached houses(Fulham for example) or semi-detached, whichever he can see the greatest fall. Detached houses in London are always fluctuating because they vary so much in size and cost. According to the Land Registry, Fulham has gone up by 13.5% in the last year. Believe Realist Bears VI figures and you would think they have fallen by 14.7%.

The 37% fall is for semi-detached houses in Islington(of which there cant be many). What Realist has done and usually does is be very very selective in his figures to "prove" his point. Islington actually rose by 0.6% in the last year.

This is all a bit sad on Realists part coz it must have taken some time to trall through the figures to post what is an inaccurate point(and Realist knows it is inaccurate).

Edited by Lochy

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Realistbear

You're absolutely right. The crash has started - but people can't see it. Boiled frog syndrome. If interest rates rise theer will be a bigger jolt, otherwise prices will decline more slowly.

If prices can go up 200% in 5 years why is it surprising that they fall 50% in 5 years.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Sorry to have to disagree but those with big wallets and no need of a mortgage will get the free lunch.

Fair point although I am not sure how safe any assets are at the moment. The stock market will get hit when interest rates start rising, cash is being undermined by inflation (which is higher than it appears) and the gold price has overshot.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.