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Roman Abramovitch

Dow Jones To Fall Below 10,700?

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I have been banging on for the past few weeks that if the support level of 10,700 is breached then we are looking at an almighty CRASH.

The U.K. will not be immune from this either.

I make no apologies for the doom I peddle on this site.

At least readers can not say that they weren't warned!!!

ONCE A BEAR ALWAYS A BEAR.

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I have been banging on for the past few weeks that if the support level of 10,700 is breached then we are looking at an almighty CRASH.

The U.K. will not be immune from this either.

I make no apologies for the doom I peddle on this site.

At least readers can not say that they weren't warned!!!

ONCE A BEAR ALWAYS A BEAR.

10704.85 @ 6pm BST :unsure:

sorry - make that 10698.85

where are the 'crash protection team' when you need 'em?

Edited by gasket37

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Gold and the Dow both headed in the same direction today:

Gold Charts GOLD 07/18/2006 13:22 628.40

I believe it was around $670 within the last couple of days. Mega-volatility. An investment for those with strong stomachs.

DOW could easily break down below 10500 by the end of the week. IR frenzy time I am afraid.

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DJ INDUSTR AVERAGE (DJI:^DJI) Edit

Index Value: 10,695.65

Trade Time: 6:47PM

Change: Down 51.71 (0.48%)

Prev Close: 10,747.36

Open: 10,745.84

Day's Range: 10,683.32 - 10,813.79

52wk Range: 10,098.20 - 11,709.10

Volume: 155,973,680

Homebuilder sentiment down to lowest since 1991. Not good for stocks. 10500 may well be on the cards.

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Looks like war in the ME may be cancelled for now--DOW back up:

http://finance.yahoo.com/mo

Market Update

2:30 pm : Market bounces off its worst levels amid a sharp sell-off in oil prices, even lifting the Dow back into positive territory for the day and the year. Unlike earlier, when oil prices initially inching into the red removed leadership throughout the Energy sector and pushed the indices lower, aggressive consolidation in crude futures to $73.60 per barrel (-2.3%) going into the close of trading on the NYMEX is offering some solace, especially after high energy prices contributed to the stronger than expected rise on total PPI.
It appears concerns about the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah spreading deeper into the oil-rich Middle East and potentially disrupting shipments is abating
. DJ30 +2.96 NASDAQ -12.67 SP500 -3.46 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1946/973/1.31 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2061/1163/1.09 bln

Its a wild ride. :o

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Looks like war in the ME may be cancelled for now--DOW back up:

http://finance.yahoo.com/mo

Market Update

2:30 pm : Market bounces off its worst levels amid a sharp sell-off in oil prices, even lifting the Dow back into positive territory for the day and the year. Unlike earlier, when oil prices initially inching into the red removed leadership throughout the Energy sector and pushed the indices lower, aggressive consolidation in crude futures to $73.60 per barrel (-2.3%) going into the close of trading on the NYMEX is offering some solace, especially after high energy prices contributed to the stronger than expected rise on total PPI.
It appears concerns about the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah spreading deeper into the oil-rich Middle East and potentially disrupting shipments is abating
. DJ30 +2.96 NASDAQ -12.67 SP500 -3.46 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1946/973/1.31 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2061/1163/1.09 bln

Its a wild ride. :o

look at the chart!!!!....what does it tell you???

..oil is slowly and steadily grinding higher....it ain't parabolic.

..in fact it looks more like a holding pattern with progressively higher lows.....ceiling has been $75 for some time....broken through and looks like a re-test at $72 ish.

......this one is going MUCH higher kids!!!

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My view regarding the Dow Jones is that today we have witnessed the bulls last stand.

Though stranger things are happening these days

Yo Gordon!

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Up 175 when I last checked. I the end of the world delayed again?

:lol:

The end is set we are just riding the final waves!

Oil is tanking today so the markets are up. What's it going to be tomorrow? I think Merv's bumpy road is more like Mr. Toad's Wild Ride.

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The end is set we are just riding the final waves!

Oil is tanking today so the markets are up. What's it going to be tomorrow? I think Merv's bumpy road is more like Mr. Toad's Wild Ride.

This one thread makes me think more than ever that 95% of the posting here is total crap. I would appeal to you all to stop thinking about what you want to happen and to discuss what is really about to happen. That means looking at the fundamentals and not the rabid and inbred UK press. Read a few of my earlier postings and you'll see what I mean.

For example, take a look at todays' WSJ and you'll see one of my predictions come true. That is, a rapid growth in exports resulting from a weaker dollar and an influx of low cost labor (ok granted they can spell the queens english but neither can yob-brits)

There are many other reasons the US will maintain its dominance but one stands above all........... if your interested in knowing what it is you'll have to wait!!!

:D

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This one thread makes me think more than ever that 95% of the posting here is total crap. I would appeal to you all to stop thinking about what you want to happen and to discuss what is really about to happen. That means looking at the fundamentals and not the rabid and inbred UK press. Read a few of my earlier postings and you'll see what I mean.

For example, take a look at todays' WSJ and you'll see one of my predictions come true. That is, a rapid growth in exports resulting from a weaker dollar and an influx of low cost labor (ok granted they can spell the queens english but neither can yob-brits)

There are many other reasons the US will maintain its dominance but one stands above all........... if your interested in knowing what it is you'll have to wait!!!

:D

I agree with you on the US being able to maintain its dominance that's why I continue to be well over 80% in US$. The pound is grossly overvalued and is no doubt behind our growing trade imbalance. Yet it continues to soar merrily along against all the odds. It may be that a few Soros types are waiting for an opportune moment to take a dump of a life time.

I check the WSJ daily and like their honesty. They are property bears and do not hold back from publishing the bad news. I have to admit I am also active on their property blog and feed much the same reality news to that site as I do on HPC. Its amazing how bearish most of the posters are--and there is no shortage of news items to back up arguments in favour of a huge global crash coming our way soon.

Why will the US maintain dominance? They effectively control enough oil to overcome any problems with vast untapped reserves in the environmentalist no-go areas of Alaska and the CA coast. They have the ability to set up Nuke power stations overnight if they need too and have vast coal reserves as back up (I have recommended buying UKC-they just showed a profit for the first time in years and its up up and away from here).

Ben is going for a mild recession and that will crimp export dependent Germany and the UK who will suffer a deeper recession as usual. The Asians can't afford a lower $ so the sale of US treasuries is not going to end anytime soon. The "threat" of Arabs buying rubles insteads of $ is the joke of the century IMO. Putin and Moslems are a mix that isn't working now and won't work down the road. He's too busy exterminating them in Chechnya.

And did you see the Farnborough news today? Boeing is killing Airbus.

Edited by Realistbear

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Is this what you mean Bart?

(Today's news that the English are nearly entirely genetically German would therefore be bad for them and us. :lol: )

yes, this featured quite heavily in the songs being sung by Germans at the English during the World Cup. Amusingly, the Ingurland boys took it all in good humour due to their complete ignorance of the language (as well as of everything else). The Germans on the other hand, perfectly understood that the Inselaffen were trying to make some irrelevant point about a 60 year old war - they have a far better sense of humour than they are credited with

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Guest Bart of Darkness

Is this what you mean Bart?

(Today's news that the English are nearly entirely genetically German would therefore be bad for them and us. :lol: )

Almost Durch, almost. :)

Like the image though. A bit like a British version of Planet of the Apes.

Link.

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DJ INDUSTR AVERAGE (DJI:^DJI) Edit

Index Value: 11,024.39

Trade Time: 7:52PM

Change: Up 225.16 (2.08%)

Prev Close: 10,799.23

Open: 10,797.39

Day's Range: 10,797.39 - 11,036.24

52wk Range: 10,098.20 - 11,709.10

Volume: 235,430,384

Irrational exhuberance plus?

All this on a doubtful parsing of Gentle Ben's words??

Does the market know what its doing:

http://www.iii.co.uk/news/?type=afxnews&am...;action=article

NEW YORK (AFX) - Fund managers are at their most pessimistic point in five years, according to a survey by Merrill Lynch & Co.
Sixty percent of the fund managers who responded to Merrill's survey for July expect the global economy to weaken over the next 12 months, up sharply from 5 percent three months ago. Thirty-one percent are overweight in cash, a level second only to the period after the Sept. 11, 2001, terror attacks. Managers' appetite for risk is at lows surpassed only by the period shortly after Sept. 11, the corporate scandals of 2002 and the start of the Gulf War, according to the survey.
"This survey is so grim it could constitute a contrarian signal," says David Bowers, is joint managing director of Absolute Strategy Research Ltd, a financial services consultancy that did the survey on behalf of Merrill Lynch. "High cash levels, high risk aversion and extreme pessimism about growth are the raw ingredients for a stock market rally if we get the merest pinch of good news to add to the mix." ......./
Edited by Realistbear

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it's just a short squeeze, some scary position out there ran for cover, there's always much volatility at tops/bottoms, the bears were getting giddy as proven by the OP B) , just how far can the plunge protection team take it... :ph34r:

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I don't see the US market crashing. It hasn't been the target of hot money in recent years, valuations are rather low, there has been a P/E contraction. ANd there is a lot of money on the sidelines that wil be put again to work once the end of the world scenario that everybody seems to have doesn't materialize.

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What about this chart, courtesy of Prechter at Elliott Wave?

EDIT: Sorry, thought this was the updated graph with outliers around Neptune nowadays, not Pluto in 2000, or a mere Jupiter in 2001. You'll have to buy the book.

imagepe.png

P/E ratio of the S&P is at a 10 year low. don't have a graph for the nasdaq and technology P/E now, but the fall should be even steeper. people are still not touching tech stocks with a ten inch pole after the 2000-2003 debacle.on the other hand PE's should go up once profit margins return to historical mean.

Edited by Grossinquisitor

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Why will the US maintain dominance? They effectively control enough oil to overcome any problems with vast untapped reserves in the environmentalist no-go areas of Alaska and the CA coast. They have the ability to set up Nuke power stations overnight if they need too and have vast coal reserves as back up (I have recommended buying UKC-they just showed a profit for the first time in years and its up up and away from here).

Ben is going for a mild recession.......

And did you see the Farnborough news today? Boeing is killing Airbus.

Close but not close enough ...

BTW it takes about 10-15 years to permit a Nuke Power Plant here in the USA, thats not to say it wont happen. I suspect the political climate has changed enough for there to be increasing use of new technology like the Westinghouse's pebble bed reactor design. This nifty new tech is compartively safe in that its not possible for the reactor core to get any hotter than about 1600C - this eliminates the prospect of meltdown and a potential Chernobyl scenario.

No, the real and staggeringly good fortune handed by nature to the USA is ................ well I'll keep you all waiting a little longer.

;-)

Edited by bpw

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imagepe.png

P/E ratio of the S&P is at a 10 year low. don't have a graph for the nasdaq and technology P/E now, but the fall should be even steeper. people are still not touching tech stocks with a ten inch pole after the 2000-2003 debacle.on the other hand PE's should go up once profit margins return to historical mean.

Good reason why tech stocks are suffering.

Higher raw materials costs,declining high-earner customer base and severe product deflation through innovation.

These only make sense when IR's/raw material prices are falling

and/or Customers are getting richer and have more spending power.

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Close but not close enough ...

BTW it takes about 10-15 years to permit a Nuke Power Plant here in the USA, thats not to say it wont happen. I suspect the political climate has changed enough for there to be increasing use of new technology like the Westinghouse's pebble bed reactor design. This nifty new tech is compartively safe in that its not possible for the reactor core to get any hotter than about 1600C - this eliminates the prospect of meltdown and a potential Chernobyl scenario.

No, the real and staggeringly good fortune handed by nature to the USA is ................ well I'll keep you all waiting a little longer.

;-)

don't bother!!!...it's geothermal!!!

west coast america sits on a faultline and these stresses provide huge amounts of heat(the supervolcano under yellowstone)...with a fairly thin layer of crust between the surface and the magma chambers....easily drillable,just like iceland(which incidentally sits on a faultline too!!!)

there's moves afoot for a US national electricity grid,and enough energy under there to totally forego fossil fuel and nuclear put together!!

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  • 335 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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