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Tempest

The Pointy Top

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This is slightly tongue in cheek and not really meant to start debate but with inflation/CPI up everywhere (even UK!), rates rising everywhere and a rate rise on the cards here in August, world financial system under more pressure than ever, Japanese free money coming to an end, middle east friction erupting again with oil certain to stay at or above current levels for the next 12 months, gold prices still on upwards trend etc etc. I just wanted to be the first to call July 06 as the new top of HPI.

I like many others thought it was May 2004 but what did I know!

Er, it could always be Aug 06. I'll let you know next month. Bound to get it right one of these days.

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all depends on the data you use.... houseprices are down on summer 2004 in many places..

I know, you're right. Lets call it the "tipping point" then.

A bit like the removal of double MIRAS in Aug 1988. The moment history says things took a turn.

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I know, you're right. Lets call it the "tipping point" then.

A bit like the removal of double MIRAS in Aug 1988. The moment history says things took a turn.

Are you saying that Japanese + IR's are the 2006 equivalent of Miras removal?

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Are you saying that Japanese + IR's are the 2006 equivalent of Miras removal?

No! Just that an interest rate rise in Aug "could", together with the Jap interest rate decision/conomic and other dangers the world is facing, be the catalyst or at least be used in future as a useful trigger point. Obviously, noone has a clue where we will be in a couple of months though! Just having a bit of fun.

Miras removal is often nominated as a/the trigger for the 80s crash although prices rose for some time after that into 1989, the real reason was an overheating economy and the removal of liquidity by increasing rates by 50%. The double miras thing (ie the advance notice of its abolition) helped things get out of hand more quickly though and probably went some way to causing the heavy rate increases needed to rein in the then economic bubble.

Edited by Tempest

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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