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House Prices In England 'to Soar'

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House prices in England 'to soar'

Average house prices in England could rise from £195,000 to nearly £290,000 by 2011, research from Oxford Economic Forecasting (OEF) has said.

Under-supply of new housing will fuel house price inflation, the OEF added.

Getting on the housing ladder will become even harder, it said, as house prices rise from eight-times average salaries to 9.2 times in 2011.

Right. So lets get a few things straight.

Housing is now 8x av. salaries, except when BBC want to play HPI down when it's looking like a rate-hike is in the offing [then it's slightly above the 'historical average' of 5.5x]

Prices will go up 50% and multiples from 8 to 9.2 - lets do the math:

£195k = 8x salary today : av salary=£195k/8= £24.3k

in 5 years, prices at £290k will be 9.2 av salary: av salary predicted in 5 years time=£290k/9.2=31.5k

That's a whopping 30% rise in salary in 5 years. Great. How will that happen? esp with the 'Iron Chancellor' getting "tough on pay"

Either pay will go up by 30% in next 5 years - highly unlikely without massive CPI/wage inflation, and accompanying 8-9% IRs - hardly the low rate environment that keeps the miracle going

Or house prices will be 11.5 x avarage salary - again even the BTL idiots wont be able to do the sums at those prices

What gets me is the way BBC, Guardian, and journalists in general have become lazy, and will print an old obvious VI press release without question

Who are the muppets that come up with this? "research" from Oxford Economic Forecasting (OEF) - did they all meet for a coffee, and simply extend the HIP graph with a biro on the back of a napkin then release their 'findings' to the press?

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Guest mattsta1964

House prices in England 'to soar'

Right. So lets get a few things straight.

Housing is now 8x av. salaries, except when BBC want to play HPI down when it's looking like a rate-hike is in the offing [then it's slightly above the 'historical average' of 5.5x]

Prices will go up 50% and multiples from 8 to 9.2 - lets do the math:

£195k = 8x salary today : av salary=£195k/8= £24.3k

in 5 years, prices at £290k will be 9.2 av salary: av salary predicted in 5 years time=£290k/9.2=31.5k

That's a whopping 30% rise in salary in 5 years. Great. How will that happen? esp with the 'Iron Chancellor' getting "tough on pay"

Either pay will go up by 30% in next 5 years - highly unlikely without massive CPI/wage inflation, and accompanying 8-9% IRs - hardly the low rate environment that keeps the miracle going

Or house prices will be 11.5 x avarage salary - again even the BTL idiots wont be able to do the sums at those prices

What gets me is the way BBC, Guardian, and journalists in general have become lazy, and will print an old obvious VI press release without question

Who are the muppets that come up with this? "research" from Oxford Economic Forecasting (OEF) - did they all meet for a coffee, and simply extend the HIP graph with a biro on the back of a napkin then release their 'findings' to the press?

It's absolute tosh. It's so pathetic, it's not worth furring yer arteries about it. The media ARE NOT giving us the facts about the crisis of affordable housing or the state of the economy and it's become a waste of time expecting them too. The BBC however, being publicly funded, should be doing much more to raise public awareness and it is shameful this hasn't happened

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Er, I think the most important statement is "The Federation, which sponsored the OEF report..."

'Nuff said! TOSH! :angry:

fp

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House prices in England 'to soar'

Right. So lets get a few things straight.

Housing is now 8x av. salaries, except when BBC want to play HPI down when it's looking like a rate-hike is in the offing [then it's slightly above the 'historical average' of 5.5x]

Prices will go up 50% and multiples from 8 to 9.2 - lets do the math:

£195k = 8x salary today : av salary=£195k/8= £24.3k

in 5 years, prices at £290k will be 9.2 av salary: av salary predicted in 5 years time=£290k/9.2=31.5k

That's a whopping 30% rise in salary in 5 years. Great. How will that happen? esp with the 'Iron Chancellor' getting "tough on pay"

Either pay will go up by 30% in next 5 years - highly unlikely without massive CPI/wage inflation, and accompanying 8-9% IRs - hardly the low rate environment that keeps the miracle going

Or house prices will be 11.5 x avarage salary - again even the BTL idiots wont be able to do the sums at those prices

What gets me is the way BBC, Guardian, and journalists in general have become lazy, and will print an old obvious VI press release without question

Who are the muppets that come up with this? "research" from Oxford Economic Forecasting (OEF) - did they all meet for a coffee, and simply extend the HIP graph with a biro on the back of a napkin then release their 'findings' to the press?

I don't agree. If there's a high demand, and a shortage of houses to buy, then that's what will happen to the price; it will go sky high. It doesn't matter if only a few first time buyers can afford it. If there's hardly any stock for them to buy, then that's what it will cost - a lot. I'm not saying that the forecast is right. But you can't just ridicule it like this. You may not want to hear it, but the market is where it is today with low numbers of FTBers. BTL seems to be doing just fine at the moment. If there's an undersupply of housing as they are predicting, then rents will go up too, boosting BTL.

I can't comment on their assumptions, but that's what you'd have to argue against, rather than just doing a calculation of price versus average salary. Average salary is already pretty much irrelevant when it comes to being a FTB. Nobody I know on average salary is able to be a FTB now.

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30% in 5 years is only 5.4 % per year.

and "officially" CPI is 2.2%

When did you, or anyone you know, get an above inflation pay rise? [excluding pay rises from promotions, or "key workers" such as 'Five-a-day' Advisors, or Diversity Officers in the public sector]

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and "officially" CPI is 2.2%

When did you, or anyone you know, get an above inflation pay rise? [excluding pay rises from promotions, or "key workers" such as 'Five-a-day' Advisors, or Diversity Officers in the public sector]

Wage inflation is currently running at around 4% yoy (public and private)

http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nugget.asp?id=10

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House prices in England 'to soar'

"HOUSE PRICES TO SOAR BY 2011"

"HOUSE PRICES TO RISE 50% BY 2011"

according to research from OXFORD ECONOMIC FORECASTING (OEF) a survey sponsored by the National Housing Federation

These are the grabbing headlines that influence the masses not bothering to read beyond these as they must be BBC true!

So why can't we the HPC, sponsor a survey from the OXFORD ECONOMIC FORECASTING or similar to come up with the opposite spin that "HOUSE PRICES TO FALL BY 2011" and "HOUSE PRICES TO FALL 50% BY 2011"

A far more realistic prediction!

I'm sure 5000x £10. donations from willing HPC members would pay for a nice negative headline grabbing survey.

It's OUR vested interest as it is the Housing Federations.

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i'm soooo happy prices are going to soar! :o

it's brilliant news that a professional sort like myself on a decent salary, will never be able to afford my own home (notice i said home, not investment or pension)

i'm sooooo happy......

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NEWSFLASH!!!! House Prices Stagnating: VI Bu11sh*t 'to soar'!! NEWSFLASH!!!!

you would have to be a crazy person to believe this tosh.. annecdote..

Person looks at the land registry figures and the figures from the ODPM and the halifax and sees a good chunk of the properties in this country have been loosing money since mid 2004..

The bbc makes an article

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/5164426.stm

based on these figures:

http://www.mjdazeley.com/ODPM_581.html

and you may want to re-read the article. No word of a lie.. you watch the map of the uk turn red and then turn blue over so very much of the country..

BBC, I wouldn't wee on any of them if they were on fire.

If they were not on fire I would be very tempted.

I hope that this is sloppy reporting and not something more nefarious...

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WHO is going to buy these houses??

There is a shortage of housing, real inflation is 10%, wage inflation is 4% and the govenment won't release land for building more houses and 90% of the population is living on 8% of the land (ie cities)

Market forces say that prices will rise - but the market will also reach a point at which debt (which is driving this market) cannot be maintained/repayed

Edited by dnd

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WHO is going to buy these houses??

There is a shortage of housing, real inflation is 10%, wage inflation is 4% and the govenment won't release land for building more houses and 90% of the population is living on 8% of the land (ie cities)

Market forces say that prices will rise - but the market will also reach a point at which debt (which is driving this market) cannot be maintained/repayed

It would be nice to think so, wouldn't it. But with IO mortgages, 35 and 40 year mortgages being mooted, and "pass the mortgage to your kids" mortgages on the horizon, I'm not so sure. Could be game over if you haven't bought a house by now.

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It would be nice to think so, wouldn't it. But with IO mortgages, 35 and 40 year mortgages being mooted, and "pass the mortgage to your kids" mortgages on the horizon, I'm not so sure.

I don't buy the 35 and 40 year repayment mortgage argument. The drop in the monthly repayments gets pretty marginal as you add another year to the term beyond 25 years, and will be marginalised further by a rate hike. As for "passing it to the kids", if I can't even afford my own little pile of baked earth, how can I afford kids?

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It would be nice to think so, wouldn't it. But with IO mortgages, 35 and 40 year mortgages being mooted, and "pass the mortgage to your kids" mortgages on the horizon, I'm not so sure. Could be game over if you haven't bought a house by now.

Some think it can be..

Of course, boe, imf.. Merv...et all.. oh yes that old expert..

history...

shows that it has never worked before..

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If this news isn't enough to get all the FTBers organising some sort of protest. I dont know what is.

If there is so much demand, why are there lots of new flats and houses still up for sale 6 months after they've been built!!

If there's so much demand, why has this house dropped its asking price by £25k ?

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-104...=1&tr_t=buy

The reason the BBC is annoying, is because they deliberately dont have an opinion about anything, oh yes, and they're biased! I notice the BBC didnt have anything about the BofE's report earlier in the week, but EVERY other website did.

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It would be nice to think so, wouldn't it. But with IO mortgages, 35 and 40 year mortgages being mooted, and "pass the mortgage to your kids" mortgages on the horizon, I'm not so sure. Could be game over if you haven't bought a house by now.

Very blinkered - mortgages to buy existing stock - that's it!!

What's stopping anybody from building their own prison house? - you could now probably contract worker/materials and aquire land yourself for less than market values on current stock

Somebody could make a fortune selling information packs on how to do this...

Edited by dnd

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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