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Guest Bart of Darkness

House Prices Rise Fastest In A Year

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As my Mum used to say - asking isn't getting! I am more interested in what prices houses are selling for - not the opening bid of the seller.

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As my Mum used to say - asking isn't getting! I am more interested in what prices houses are selling for - not the opening bid of the seller.

True. But not good news, all the same....

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2.9% in one month is massive and concurs with what I've seen on the South Coast - looks like the soft landing was never possible after all.

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Don't get disheartened. These figs. relate to asking prices and I have definitely noticed an increase in the last few months due to the selling season. However, due to sentiment changing, reductions have been priced in. Prices ain't going up but they certainly will be coming down with a bump!

Edited by Buffer Bear

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As KoN has been pointing out, Rightmove is a very good leading indicator with strong correlation to other later indecies. If this is the case Haliwide will be showing strong gains it the next few months...

I doubt it somehow.

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As KoN has been pointing out, Rightmove is a very good leading indicator with strong correlation to other later indecies. If this is the case Haliwide will be showing strong gains it the next few months...

I doubt it somehow.

With loan approvals strong, we could be in for some gains again later in the year. As an anecdotal, I've just seen a few houses come back on the market after about 6 months development and was shocked to see that some had the asking price whacked up by 16%.

Yikes!

Is the crash now delayed again? Because I thought the 1.2% drop reported was going to mark the end of the world soon.

Edited by Golden Shower

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With loan approvals strong, we could be in for some gains again later in the year. As an anecdotal, I've just seen a few houses come back on the market after about 6 months development and was shocked to see that some had the asking price whacked up by 16%.

Yikes!

I do think they will be more gains in the immediate months ahead because of loan approvals as you say.

But the problem with Rightmove is that it can be easily manipulated, now ok, I accept that any manipulation in one month would distort it from the next (unless the manipulation carries on). But when prices do start to fall the correlation will be lost, because vendors will easily be in denial, and 'chase the market down'.

Edited by Jason

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I do think they will be more gains in the immediate months ahead because of loan approvals as you say.

But the problem with Rightmove is that it can be easily manipulated, now ok, I accept that any manipulation in one month would distort it from the next (unless the manipulation carries on). But when prices do start to fall the correlation will be lost, because vendors will easily be in denial, and 'chase the market down'.

True, they are only asking prices after all. I personally don't pay too much attention to them, I normally view them with passing interest.

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I've added the Rightmove July figures to the usual roundup of the indices:

http://www.houseprices.uk.net/graphs/

House Prices:

20759h5.png

YoY HPI:

2075bgh.png

As an infrequent visitor to this site I would just like to say these graphs are very clear, and you are to be commended.

Pictures like this (full of facts) are always better than words (opinion).

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As an infrequent visitor to this site I would just like to say these graphs are very clear, and you are to be commended.

Pictures like this (full of facts) are always better than words (opinion).

I agree, but they are very much at odds with what some bears on here are telling us. Realist Bear for example thinks prices are already falling.

The graphs show the reality of the situation.

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With loan approvals strong, we could be in for some gains again later in the year. As an anecdotal, I've just seen a few houses come back on the market after about 6 months development and was shocked to see that some had the asking price whacked up by 16%.

Yikes!

Is the crash now delayed again? Because I thought the 1.2% drop reported was going to mark the end of the world soon.

Yep, I concur. Lot of stuff on round me looks like the asking price is up about 10% or so since start of year. Lot of stuff sticking and not selling, but the rest going the first day it's on. Quite an interesting market. No sign of falls round me.

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Just checked BBC site--no mention. Seems RM's credibility is long gone. Must have been their 200 million pound flats seen to be skewing their figures?

RM should be investigated by the trading standards and advertising authorities IMO. They are a joke.

Yep, I concur. Lot of stuff on round me looks like the asking price is up about 10% or so since start of year. Lot of stuff sticking and not selling, but the rest going the first day it's on. Quite an interesting market. No sign of falls round me.

West Midlands is showing falls everywhere. Paper full of price reductions and a lot of "unexpectedly back on the market." Have friends in Sussex and they repoprt the same thing so its widespread. There is a massive attempt by the VIs to prevent a crash and they know IR are going to go up, eventually, and with affordability long since passed this market is headed nowhere but down.

World stock markets are having another bad day and if this keeps up we could see another 1987 scenario and we all know what happened 17 months later----the Great HPC of 1989-97. Recession is coming and IR are headed up--a witches brew for house prices.

Edited by Realistbear

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I used to think there would be a HPC, I thought that it would happen in 2005. It didn't happen - prices dipped and then rebounded this year.

IMO, the best and only chance of a crash has passed us by. Many people expected one and the market proved too resilient. It only took a .25% decrease to turn things rounf, for christ's sakes, that just shows you how strong it is.

2005 actually did the bear cause more harm than good. Most non-obsessed people I know talk as though the prospects for a crash was "something that happened a couple of years ago". It's all behind us now and the market is continuing its rise. I think prices will follow wage increase over the next many years, give or take a couple of per cents either way. The new paradigm of amateur speculation in property will now always be with us.

People are clutching the IR card too tightly, with talk about IRs increasing around the world. In reality, rise in those countries are unlikely to have the direct impact on the UK as many people think. Sure, our IRs could go up by a half per cent. But that's not going to cause a crash. And if it looked like it was going to, then a quarter per cent reduction would set the HPI off again.

It didn't happen when it could have done, it won't happen now. I hope I'm wrong, but I'm pretty convinced that I'm not.

Edited by Casual Observer

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CO, if you flip a coin twenty times and get heads, it does not mean you will never get a tail.

The more time goes on, the more likely a crash, not vice-versa. There is not a 'cut off' whenupon gains are magically locked in.

Have you watched the news from the middle east? I cannot see this simmering down any time soon, and oil prices could easily rocket through $80 today. The real peak price in the oil crisis was about $88, and there was nowhere near the amount of debt. Recession, even a depression, is likely. Lets see someone get £200K for a shoebox then.

There is nothing special about houses that makes them insulated from the risks of other overpriced assets. In fact, a class of people claiming different is my personal bellweather that they are in for a rude shock. These young 'investors' are in for some old lessons.

Edited by tahoma

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The Rightmove database is becoming gentrified as they mop up agents from the likes of PrimeLocation. A disproportionate number of new instructions are coming from the top end sector at the moment, driving the average price up sharply.

The price of the mid point of my daily samples have risen over 20% in the last year, yet the asking price of like for like houses has remained virtually unchanged (+/-2%).

It's a situation that suits Rightmove's agenda, so don't expect them to point this out.

The only thing that has changed CO, is your opinion. Perhaps you should become an economist.

No, something has changed. Houses that don't fetch the asking price are now kept by the owner, and rented out.. This would not have happened 20 years ago, the price would have dropped to ensure a sale.

Nothing wrong with cjhanging your opinion as things change. In fact it's dangerous not to. :)

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No, something has changed. Houses that don't fetch the asking price are now kept by the owner, and rented out.. This would not have happened 20 years ago, the price would have dropped to ensure a sale.

While the owner does what? Takes on another mortgage? A bridging loan? Rents somewhere else for themselves?

Where do you think the free money is going to come from to pull this off?

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While the owner does what? Takes on another mortgage? A bridging loan? Rents somewhere else for themselves?

Where do you think the free money is going to come from to pull this off?

I wish I knew, but around me it's happening all the time. Loads of people I know are doing this.

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Sorry again, all.

Please excuse my ignorance here, I have a question.

Aren't re mortgages included as loan approvals?

Guy lives in a house 'valued' at £200k, in trouble with debts, greasy spam EA comes along & values house at £250k, Guy gets a re mortgage for £250k, BINGO, house prices are rising??

Does it work like this?

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While the owner does what? Takes on another mortgage? A bridging loan? Rents somewhere else for themselves?

Where do you think the free money is going to come from to pull this off?

They convert the old loan to a BTL, withdrawing equity as they do do, take out a fresh mortgage for the next house. The rental income pays the BTL repayments for anyone who bought at least 3 years ago. I'm not saying it's a sensible move, but it's happening around my way. My son has been looking at houses around 250k. The good ones go at full asking prices (1 even went for higher), the ambitiously priced are rented out. It's happened to 3 properties he's looked at, 2 x 2 bed apartments and 1 3 bed semi.

I suspect that you wouldn't have thought this would be happening if I'd asked you a year ago. But it is. You explain why the dip in prices was reversed post the last IR cut, other than the market is stronger than you suggest.

Sorry again, all.

Please excuse my ignorance here, I have a question.

Aren't re mortgages included as loan approvals?

Guy lives in a house 'valued' at £200k, in trouble with debts, greasy spam EA comes along & values house at £250k, Guy gets a re mortgage for £250k, BINGO, house prices are rising??

Does it work like this?

No! The agreed selling price is more often used.

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I suspect that you wouldn't have thought this would be happening if I'd asked you a year ago. But it is. You explain why the dip in prices was reversed post the last IR cut, other than the market is stronger than you suggest.

I'm not denying the market is highly active; this is however due to a fever of last-chance 'get on the Hindenberg' activity and wiser speculators selling out. If you prefer to see this as 'strong' it's your choice.

Is it not fair to reason that an increase in IRs now would cancel out the gains made since that ludicrous cut in August? The housing market and the associated MEW is the only thing keeping this country from recession and the government know it. Hence they will keep IRs artificially low until something breaks.

And are you not a little nervous that your son is entering the market now?

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They convert the old loan to a BTL, withdrawing equity as they do do, take out a fresh mortgage for the next house. The rental income pays the BTL repayments for anyone who bought at least 3 years ago. I'm not saying it's a sensible move, but it's happening around my way. My son has been looking at houses around 250k. The good ones go at full asking prices (1 even went for higher), the ambitiously priced are rented out. It's happened to 3 properties he's looked at, 2 x 2 bed apartments and 1 3 bed semi.

I suspect that you wouldn't have thought this would be happening if I'd asked you a year ago. But it is. You explain why the dip in prices was reversed post the last IR cut, other than the market is stronger than you suggest.

No! The agreed selling price is more often used.

But don't rightmove only base figures on asking prices?

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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