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Realistbear

Ireland Have 3.9% Inflation

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Despite my Irish heritage - I find Ireland a bit of a mystery?

What do they export? Time was when they built a few ships and planes (Shorts) in Belfast (so Northern Ireland) - what is the Irish tiger economy based on? In the Far East it has been based on cheap labour used to manufacture stuff cheaper than the West. What do the Irish do? Buy and sell houses for a living?

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Despite my Irish heritage - I find Ireland a bit of a mystery?

What do they export? Time was when they built a few ships and planes (Shorts) in Belfast (so Northern Ireland) - what is the Irish tiger economy based on? In the Far East it has been based on cheap labour used to manufacture stuff cheaper than the West. What do the Irish do? Buy and sell houses for a living?

Yeah, but the Irish can borrow lots of cheap money. The cheap money creates demand for property. house prices rise and keep rising because new money can be borrowed to catch up with increases. The 'value' will sustain so long as the cheap money does. when it goes the 'value' will go with it and Ireland will revert to its piss poor former self.

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when it goes the 'value' will go with it and Ireland will revert to its piss poor former self.

Except now they'll have huge debts to pay, and since they'll be in Euros, they won't be able to just inflate them away.

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What do they export? Time was when they built a few ships and planes (Shorts) in Belfast (so Northern Ireland) - what is the Irish tiger economy based on? In the Far East it has been based on cheap labour used to manufacture stuff cheaper than the West. What do the Irish do? Buy and sell houses for a living?

There is still a good bit of high tech. They own a good chunk of the UK's construction industry which is doing rather well. It's Irish money behind a lot of stuff which happens in the UK including, but not limited to, the property market. Besides which it's a nice place full of mostly pleasant people so a good place to live and invest.

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Despite my Irish heritage - I find Ireland a bit of a mystery?

What do they export? Time was when they built a few ships and planes (Shorts) in Belfast (so Northern Ireland) - what is the Irish tiger economy based on? In the Far East it has been based on cheap labour used to manufacture stuff cheaper than the West. What do the Irish do? Buy and sell houses for a living?

They have a Screwdriver economy that can easily relocate to cheaper money when it all goes wrong. History will repeat itself. Northern Ireland will survive as they have more of an established breadth of industry but Southern Ireland will have to go back to growing potatoes. Mind you there are plenty of illegal immigrant to pick them !!

They can always go back to the EEC for a hand out but they will be at the end of the queue as Turkey and Bulgaria are in such bad shape there will be nothing left. Batten down the hatches !!

Edited by faloos

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They have a Screwdriver economy that can easily relocate to cheaper money when it all goes wrong. History will repeat itself.

I believe Ireland is one of the largest software exporters in the world. Microsoft employs a huge number of people in Ireland and pays them well. However the profits all go back to Bill Gates.

They also have the International Financial Services Centre (IFSC) in Dublin, which operates in the same manner as an offshore financial centre such as the Isle of Man, Jersey etc.

Then of course there is tourism.

Everyone else works in construction, building houses to help fuel the boom. It would probably be a reasonable enough place if they weren't suffering the effects of cheap and loose lending.

Northern Ireland will survive as they have more of an established breadth of industry but Southern Ireland will have to go back to growing potatoes. Mind you there are plenty of illegal immigrant to pick them !!s

Is this the same NI that derives an estimated 71% of income from the public sector?? There is very little industry in NI.

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Except now they'll have huge debts to pay, and since they'll be in Euros, they won't be able to just inflate them away.

Still though they have managed to build an awful lot of houses for themselves (50% of whats there today) in the last 10 years. No amount of inflation or any bank will be able to take that away from the country.

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No amount of inflation or any bank will be able to take that away from the country.

Yes, all those houses will be extremely useful when the entire country is heavily in debt and they have little productive industry left. Maybe they can sell them to rich Bulgarians as holiday homes.

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Very bad news fro Ireland. Especially cose:

"The Central Bank says it expects economic growth of around 5% this year, but has expressed concern about the recent pick-up in house price growth. Governor John Hurley, speaking at the launch of the Central Bank's annual report, said the relatively 'unbalanced' nature of Irish growth was a concern, as it was concentrated in construction and services, with more modest growth in manufacturing and a disappointing export performance."

"Mr Hurley also said the level of household debt was now very high by international standards, while inflationary pressures were further eroding competitiveness. He added that Ireland was more dependent on oil than most developed countries, and therefore more at risk from volatility in prices."

More:

http://www.rte.ie/business/2006/0712/centralbank.html

Looks like Ireland is destined to collapse.

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Yes, all those houses will be extremely useful when the entire country is heavily in debt and they have little productive industry left. Maybe they can sell them to rich Bulgarians as holiday homes.

Possibly. But arent all those Bulgarians all rich from Irish property investors. Besides when it all goes pearshaped it will go pearshaped for everyone. The banks and governments will write off every ones debt and we can all start over again. Or if not the Irish will just tell everyone to feck off with their demands for money(they are irish they have no shame in doing this) and go back to their potatoes and donkeys and go and live in their nice lovely new houses. And lovely they are too. Have you seen them.? Mock roman pillars everywhere, tarmac and rampant lions at the entrance without a jot of respect for the surrounding countryside, Oh and ye cant bate a bit of the ol PVC windows, soffits and facias. And if you ask, yes I am owed money by them for building services rendered. And yes I am mostly Irish too and bitter.

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Well I think Irelands secret is its tax reform. Low flat tax of 12.5%, or almost flat, which attracted a lot of business

Other nations have cut tax rates deeply. Ireland doesn’t have a flat tax, but it has slashed its corporate tax rate from 50 percent to 12.5 percent. Combined with other tax cuts, this helped turn the “Sick Man of Europe” into the “Celtic Tiger.” Unemployment has dropped from 17 percent to 5 percent, and Ireland is now the second-richest nation in the European Union.
Twenty years ago, people would have laughed if you said that Ireland would have a 12.5 percent flat tax and be the fastest-growing economy in Europe.

http://www.heritage.org/Press/Commentary/ed041405c.cfm

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i live here in ireland.the economy is mainly driven by foreign multinationals who are here for tax reasons only and will move on when the tax savings dont substantially outweigh the high labour/business costs (87% of its exports are by multinationals who repatriate their profits to usa uk eu etc),also property and inward migration are driving the economy too with a bit of consumer spending thrown into the mix. inward migration is very large and this is actually driving growth by itself and makes gnp/gdp growth look more immpresive as it doesnt take account of large population increases. the infrastructure is crap,everything is expensive, the close to zero indigenous industry/exporters/international service firms, debt is growing at 30% per annum etc etc, its headed for the rocks ,many people trading up keep their original property as a "pension" and wdespread belief that you should buy as much property as the bank will give ya the money for. i have plans laid to move to manchester or london when the economy goes bang, you lot in uk are in much better situation despite what you seem to think, any economic probs and at least you have control over your interest rates etc,and are a much better bet long term than ireland. Maybe we should have had monetary union with you lot rather than the euro lot!

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i live here in ireland.the economy is mainly driven by foreign multinationals who are here for tax reasons only and will move on when the tax savings dont substantially outweigh the high labour/business costs (87% of its exports are by multinationals who repatriate their profits to usa uk eu etc),also property and inward migration are driving the economy too with a bit of consumer spending thrown into the mix. inward migration is very large and this is actually driving growth by itself and makes gnp/gdp growth look more immpresive as it doesnt take account of large population increases. the infrastructure is crap,everything is expensive, the close to zero indigenous industry/exporters/international service firms, debt is growing at 30% per annum etc etc, its headed for the rocks ,many people trading up keep their original property as a "pension" and wdespread belief that you should buy as much property as the bank will give ya the money for. i have plans laid to move to manchester or london when the economy goes bang, you lot in uk are in much better situation despite what you seem to think, any economic probs and at least you have control over your interest rates etc,and are a much better bet long term than ireland. Maybe we should have had monetary union with you lot rather than the euro lot!

Hi Ronnie. How long do you think it will last? The way things are going it looks like there will be a definately, and sharp, peak at some point! Also, as you say, sentiment is very positive. But is there a growing group of people who question it all (like in the UK)? There's always someone who says prices this high (in the UK) is not right (but probably don't understand why it's not 'right').

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Hi Ronnie. How long do you think it will last? The way things are going it looks like there will be a definately, and sharp, peak at some point! Also, as you say, sentiment is very positive. But is there a growing group of people who question it all (like in the UK)? There's always someone who says prices this high (in the UK) is not right (but probably don't understand why it's not 'right').

Theres growing bearish sentiment in the media and on a few of irelands more popular message boards. I think 12-18 month the property market will be in a negative real growth rate and within 5 years there will have been a significant correction due to investors dumping loss making properties and massive supply still coming online. the economy may hold on for next decade without serious recession but a lot depends on US UK etc as we are one of most open globalised economies and are more affected by global slowdowns than others. i predict a long slow recession within a decade and immigration will again become a reality for young irish with uk being most obvious location.

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I believe Ireland is one of the largest software exporters in the world. Microsoft employs a huge number of people in Ireland and pays them well. However the profits all go back to Bill Gates.

They also have the International Financial Services Centre (IFSC) in Dublin, which operates in the same manner as an offshore financial centre such as the Isle of Man, Jersey etc.

Then of course there is tourism.

Everyone else works in construction, building houses to help fuel the boom. It would probably be a reasonable enough place if they weren't suffering the effects of cheap and loose lending.

Is this the same NI that derives an estimated 71% of income from the public sector?? There is very little industry in NI.

1. Dell are only in Southern Ireland because if you manufacture within the EEC there are no Quotas !!

Got my point?

2. Northern Ireland - Ship building , aircraft manufacturing this surely beats growing potatoes !!

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1. Dell are only in Southern Ireland because if you manufacture within the EEC there are no Quotas !!

Got my point?

I read somewhere that Dell alone are responsible for 1% of Irish GDP and 4% of exports!

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I read somewhere that Dell alone are responsible for 1% of Irish GDP and 4% of exports!

Wouldn't surprise me at all.

What also wouldn't surprise me is to see many of the companies who set up in Ireland solely because it was a cheap place to do business in the EU move to Eastern Europe over the next few years.

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Wouldn't surprise me at all.

What also wouldn't surprise me is to see many of the companies who set up in Ireland solely because it was a cheap place to do business in the EU move to Eastern Europe over the next few years.

Ah its good to hear someone that knows what he is talking about and is aware of basic economics.

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  • 341 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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