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Realistbear

D O W Is Plunging Again As Bond Yields Rise

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Dumbass* 101:

> DOW = Market in stocks and shares

> Bonds = Governement bonds, with yields based on IRs

> So, when the market sees IR hikes down the road, they move money out of S&S and into bonds, hence DOW falls.

Correct?

:unsure:

* = Me

I've been trying to get my head around this, too. One thing I've wondered is whether the flight into bonds will be lessened by the fiddled inflation figures. I only say that because I was thinking of getting some bonds but the interest rate is based on the cpi and is SO low that I would feel basically cheated by the government (imagine!). This I do not like because, as I found myself thinking this, I thought 'so where is the money going to go?' - does it make it more likely that people will keep on resorting to real things like metals and bricks and mortar? These are amateur musings as I'm sure is plain. Do they ring any sort of bell anywhere with anybody? Any basis in reality at all? :rolleyes:

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Hideous. 3rd day in a row of mega-drops. Are we getting near a 1987-style rout?

DJ INDUSTR AVERAGE (DJI:^DJI) Edit

Index Value: 10,771.21

Trade Time: 3:58PM

Change: Down 75.08 (0.69%)

Prev Close: 10,846.29

Open: 10,846.53

Day's Range: 10,769.45 - 10,848.37

52wk Range: 10,098.20 - 11,709.10

Volume: 85,833,336

FTSE 100 (FSI:^FTSE) Edit

Index Value: 5,729.80

Trade Time: 4:02PM

Change: Down 35.20 (0.61%)

Prev Close: 5,765.00

Open: 5,765.00

Day's Range: 5,717.70 - 5,765.00

52wk Range: 5,130.90 - 6,137.10

A melt-down in world SM will unnerve all further investment in anything that is IR sensitive. IF this continues I think we may have a pleasant HPC long before the winter sets in. The 1987 SM crash took 17 months to bring down house prices but I fail to see why there would be a lag this time around as prices are already headed down in many regions.

Edited by Realistbear

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Hideous. 3rd day in a row of mega-drops. Are we getting near a 1987-style rout?

Do you think this has been triggered by the BoJ IR hike? i.e. Yen going home?

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Do you think this has been triggered by the BoJ IR hike? i.e. Yen going home?

The consensus seems to be saying its oil and the middle east--both are tied. The BoJ does not seem to have had any effect that we can see--yet.

The FTSE is finishing very badly:

FTSE 100 (FSI:^FTSE) Edit

Index Value: 5,709.00

Trade Time: 4:29PM

Change: Down 56.00 (0.97%)

Prev Close: 5,765.00

Open: 5,765.00

Day's Range: 5,709.00 - 5,765.00

52wk Range: 5,130.90 - 6,137.10

We can't say that we were not warned about these kinds of falls. With IR headed up and oil about to become super expensive the writing was on the wall. We may be on the brink of what Warren Buffett described as a global asset price correction. Little wonder he called it quits recently and advised going defensive with utility stocks and cash. He is also extremely bearish on property as my quote below records.

This could be it, DOW is gathering momentum to the down side:

DJ INDUSTR AVERAGE (DJI:^DJI) Edit

Index Value: 10,706.30

Trade Time: 4:34PM

Change: Down 139.99 (1.29%)

Prev Close: 10,846.29

Open: 10,846.53

Day's Range: 10,705.82 - 10,848.37

52wk Range: 10,098.20 - 11,709.10

Volume: 114,893,792

The chart shows a near vertical drop in the last 30 minutes. A lot of people are pulling a lot of money off the table all at once. It could be 1967 all over again. With a little 1987 mixed in for good measure.

I am pleased to be 93% cash and regret not unloading the rest as my stock and bond portfolio is still causing some pain with what is left in the SMs. At least the savings rates are going up and my bet is still on the dollar as the least of all evils currency-wise.

10,500 is but a kiss away. War, children............................ :o

Edited by Realistbear

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The consensus seems to be saying its oil and the middle east--both are tied. The BoJ does not seem to have had any effect that we can see--yet.

The FTSE is finishing very badly:

FTSE 100 (FSI:^FTSE) Edit

Index Value: 5,718.70

Trade Time: 4:25PM

Change: Down 46.30 (0.80%)

Prev Close: 5,765.00

Open: 5,765.00

Day's Range: 5,716.90 - 5,765.00

52wk Range: 5,130.90 - 6,137.10

We can't say that we were not warned about these kinds of falls. With IR headed up and oil about to become super expensive the writing was on the wall. We may be on the brink of what Warren Buffett described as a global asset price correction. Little wonder he called it quits recently and advised going defensive with utility stocks and cash. He is also extremely bearish on property as my quote below records.

Oil, MEast plus distinguished figures publishing papers that the US is bankrupt!

However, since the YCT is differential driven, shouldn't we see the greatest impact in those countries with the highest IR rates?...AUS and USA top the league of major Ind.Nations.

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Ireland got knocked senseless today:

^IETP ISEQ20 (Ireland) 1,153.06 16:37 Down -29.00 (-2.45%)

With their terrifying house prices and consequential debt levels I would not be surprised to see a collapse over there very soon.

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Ireland got knocked senseless today:

^IETP ISEQ20 (Ireland) 1,153.06 16:37 Down -29.00 (-2.45%)

With their terrifying house prices and consequential debt levels I would not be surprised to see a collapse over there very soon.

Hang on, looks like the Irish figure is a mis-calc.

29 is not 2.45% of 1153............

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Ireland got knocked senseless today:

^IETP ISEQ20 (Ireland) 1,153.06 16:37 Down -29.00 (-2.45%)

With their terrifying house prices and consequential debt levels I would not be surprised to see a collapse over there very soon.

Actually, having thought about it a bit more...

Whilst we may see the greatest impact on YCT reversal in those countries with the highest IR rates in the fullness of time. Initially, the credit should dry up in countries with the more marginal differentials first. e.g. Eurozone. ;)

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Actually, having thought about it a bit more...

Whilst we may see the greatest impact on YCT reversal in those countries with the highest IR rates in the fullness of time. Initially, the credit should dry up in countries with the more marginal differentials first. e.g. Eurozone. ;)

Yup. I believe the EZ is overrated as a safe haven. They have chronic imbalances as evidenced by the Irish situation with rampant real inflation and super-accomodative IR. Germany is heavily export dependent and their biggest customer (USA) is about to enter recession--bad news for Germany. The EU can't export to us as we are going skint and they can't compete with Asia. Their IR are among the lowest in the world and they can't raise them or they overprice the Euro and make matters worse. What an unholy mess.

IMO, the YCT is the opening of pandora's box with lots of nasty surprises about to pop up everywhere. Surprises, that is, to those who couldn't see the obvious coming.

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Up up and away go the IR. Some good news in all the carnage:

http://uk.biz.yahoo.com//14072006/214/bonds-roundup.html

Friday July 14, 04:35 PM
Bonds roundup
LONDON (ShareCast) - European bonds are posting good gains, benefiting from the recent slide in the equity markets.
Gilts are tracking their European counterparts with no local economic news to direct traders. Next week, the consumer price index inflation data is due while the minutes for the last MPC meeting is also out.

CPI out next week. I wonder what Gordon will announce? 1.9% after taking out all items that have risen in value over the past year :lol:

Or will he admit it is 2.1% and move the goal posts out to 2.5%?

Looks like we were down 1% at the finish line with the steepest decline at the close which may point to a nasty opening on Monday. But then again, we might have peace in the middle east by then. Big guessing game these days:

FTSE 100 (FSI:^FTSE) Edit

Index Value: 5,707.60

Trade Time: 4:36PM

Change: Down 57.40 (1.00%)

Prev Close: 5,765.00

Open: 5,765.00

Day's Range: 5,707.60 - 5,765.00

52wk Range: 5,130.90 - 6,137.10

Edited by Realistbear

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Up up and away go the IR. Some good news in all the carnage:

http://uk.biz.yahoo.com//14072006/214/bonds-roundup.html

Friday July 14, 04:35 PM
Bonds roundup
LONDON (ShareCast) - European bonds are posting good gains, benefiting from the recent slide in the equity markets.
Gilts are tracking their European counterparts with no local economic news to direct traders. Next week, the consumer price index inflation data is due while the minutes for the last MPC meeting is also out.

CPI out next week. I wonder what Gordon will announce? 1.9% after taking out all items that have risen in value over the past year :lol:

Or will he admit it is 2.1% and move the goal posts out to 2.5%?

Ahem RB!

Look CPI is 2.2% already

http://www.statistics.gov.uk/CCI/nugget.asp?ID=19

Tsk tsk :rolleyes:

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Dow Jones Industrial Average = 10,726.41 according to BBC.

Going down, going down now... (Led Zeppelin)

Wow! So glad I didn't invest as I was thinking of doing in early spring. :blink:

But then, maybe now is a good time to buy?

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Still dropping, quite a steep sell of at the moment so it may break below 10,700 before the close:

DJ INDUSTR AVERAGE (DJI:^DJI) Edit

Index Value: 10,716.38

Trade Time: 7:40PM

Change: Down 129.91 (1.20%)

Prev Close: 10,846.29

Open: 10,846.53

Day's Range: 10,701.34 - 10,848.37

52wk Range: 10,098.20 - 11

I see this as part of the May correction with the sucker's rally now over. Merv the Swerve did say there was bumpy road ahead and with the all wild cards out there from war in the middle east to the unknown effects of the Yen Carry Trade it is possibly best to stay away. I got out before things got really bad in May and have not ventured back in and will probably not do so all thje time IR are paying a good return on cash savings.

The only thing which has been unaffected throughout all the turmoil is the pound. The widespread belief that the Miracle Economy is working despite the recent deficits, unemployment and rising inflation is a mystery. Add to the mix the political uncertainties involving TB and Two jags and its all very risky. IN any other country a leader surrounded by (or at the center of) that much possible corruption would have sent the currency down by now. Perhaps the public are used to it now and its a big yawn.

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I think you are right. THe US will have to begin lowering rates once a serious recession begins. Al and now Ben have factored in a limited HPC in the hot markets in the US (the entire UK is a once "hot" market) which will drop, or possibly crash, after the hiking begins to bite. The difficult thing to predict is if the IR hikes will go too far and trip a prolonged recession where not only house prices will tank but everything else along with it.

Gordon is in a more difficult position because his HPI-MEW driven economy is totally dependent on low IR. He canot "crash" a segment of the house market without crashing all of it. There is, in other words, no "limited burn" option for Gordon that the US have open to them given the shere diversity of their market.

A limited recession in the US is a given IMO. It will impact its principle trading partners, namely the UK and the EU. The old rule that when America sneezes Europe catches a cold will still apply as the trading relationships are still there. All the talk about "fragile recoveries" this side of the pond are precisley due to the US economy and Ben's limited burn option being followed with IR hikes.

Add oil and war to the mix and the whole process becomes accelerated but the direction remains unaffected. Recession it is because inflation is the no go zone.

So why do you regularly say we will get higher IRs? BOE has held out so far, if they carry on and USA goes into recession and consumer spending slows here (again) - we'll get even lower rates and the HP madness will just go on and on. Won't it? I used to believe in a doomsday scenario where our currency would get devalued as other countries realised we were just printing the stuff we pay for their goods with - and we would have to raise IRs - even if we were facing (or in) a recession. But now .... no sign of if with the current strength of sterling.

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So why do you regularly say we will get higher IRs? BOE has held out so far, if they carry on and USA goes into recession and consumer spending slows here (again) - we'll get even lower rates and the HP madness will just go on and on. Won't it? I used to believe in a doomsday scenario where our currency would get devalued as other countries realised we were just printing the stuff we pay for their goods with - and we would have to raise IRs - even if we were facing (or in) a recession. But now .... no sign of if with the current strength of sterling.

Higher IR or a lower pound. Gordon cannot have it both ways. IR may no longer be under Gordon's control as international events are superceding him. The BoJ action may trigger the financial Tsunami that will turn the IR screw several times in the tightening direction regardless of Gordon's policies:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtm.../15/ixcoms.html

Japanese rate rise heralds a new era

(Filed: 15/07/2006)

Small step for the banks threatens repercussions for global economy, writes Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
...../
While the move was telegraphed long ago, the policy shifts mark an epochal turning point.
For the first time since the early 1980s, the Bank of Japan, the US Federal Reserve and all the top European banks are raising rates in unison, draining the excess liquidity that has fuelled the current asset boom.
Japanese pension funds, insurers, and thrifty grannies together hold assets abroad of some $2,500bn, staggering wealth that
almost matches the net overseas holdings of the rest of mankind.
If they repatriate part of this money to exploit rising returns at home, the world will feel the tremors.
....../

We therefore have the worst of all scenarios. A slowing economy triggered by recession in the US together with rising oil prices at the same time IR are headed up worldwide. Something will have to give as recessions and higher IR are not compatible for long. Gordon must face the same decision as Ben and either allow IR to remain accomodative (some say they are even negative at present) and stoke inflation or follow the rest of the world in tightening and guarantee recession.

What is interesting is the pound and its uncompetitive edge over other world currencies. At the moment it is keeping inflation lower than would otherwise be the case. It is also having a negative impact on our balance of payments as we have seen this past week. The danger is that the pound will be too high if our principal trading partners go into recession and import even less goods from us. On the other hand, if we keep IR accomodative and the pound tanks imports become more expensive and we make matters worse on the inflation front.

If Japan do what the Telegraph article suggests they might then IR will rise regardless of recession in the UK and US as the money will be repatriated to its source at higher rates than which it was borrowed. There are enormous sums of money at stake and the potential for recession or even depression is there. OUr spending binge along with the US must somehow be paid for. Our housing "wealth" is simply the money that we have borrowed cheaply. That money is becoming more expensive and there must be some effects as the IR rise.

Bottom line, things will not continue as they have been due to the IR shift. Recession is a given, IMO. How bad it will be depends on circumstances well out of our control: Japan, how deeply the US goes into recession, world events including the direction of oil prices. In all, a witches brew of unknowns but all pointing toward an IR-sensitive asset price meltdown.

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Guest housep

THIS SITE IS FULL OF SAD F**KING IDIOTS WHO HAVE NO LIFE AND NEED TO MAKE UP FOR IT......... THERE WILL BE NO CRASH. INTERESTS WON'T RISE BY MORE THAN 0.75%. THE CRASH OF THE 90S WAS DUE TO IR BEING RAISED BY THE CONSERATIVES BY ABOVE 15%. THATS WHY BOE HAVE CONTROL. THEY ARE NOT STUPID ENOUGH TO SEND US INTO ANOTHER RECESION. WHO WOULD BENEFIT???????????? NOT THE GOVERNMENT FOR SURE. THE MORTGAGE FIRMS WANT TO KEEP PEOPLE IN THERE HOUSES AS A REPOSSESION = THE LOSS OF FULL TERM BORROWING INTEREST. THE MORTGAGE FIRM WOULD LOOSE. THE LOT OF YOU NEED TO GET A GRIP AND A LIFE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!11

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THIS SITE IS FULL OF SAD F**KING IDIOTS WHO HAVE NO LIFE AND NEED TO MAKE UP FOR IT......... THERE WILL BE NO CRASH. INTERESTS WON'T RISE BY MORE THAN 0.75%. THE CRASH OF THE 90S WAS DUE TO IR BEING RAISED BY THE CONSERATIVES BY ABOVE 15%. THATS WHY BOE HAVE CONTROL. THEY ARE NOT STUPID ENOUGH TO SEND US INTO ANOTHER RECESION. WHO WOULD BENEFIT???????????? NOT THE GOVERNMENT FOR SURE. THE MORTGAGE FIRMS WANT TO KEEP PEOPLE IN THERE HOUSES AS A REPOSSESION = THE LOSS OF FULL TERM BORROWING INTEREST. THE MORTGAGE FIRM WOULD LOOSE. THE LOT OF YOU NEED TO GET A GRIP AND A LIFE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!11

Please stop shouting.. I've got a hangover..

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THIS SITE IS FULL OF SAD F**KING IDIOTS WHO HAVE NO LIFE AND NEED TO MAKE UP FOR IT......... THERE WILL BE NO CRASH. INTERESTS WON'T RISE BY MORE THAN 0.75%. THE CRASH OF THE 90S WAS DUE TO IR BEING RAISED BY THE CONSERATIVES BY ABOVE 15%. THATS WHY BOE HAVE CONTROL. THEY ARE NOT STUPID ENOUGH TO SEND US INTO ANOTHER RECESION. WHO WOULD BENEFIT???????????? NOT THE GOVERNMENT FOR SURE. THE MORTGAGE FIRMS WANT TO KEEP PEOPLE IN THERE HOUSES AS A REPOSSESION = THE LOSS OF FULL TERM BORROWING INTEREST. THE MORTGAGE FIRM WOULD LOOSE. THE LOT OF YOU NEED TO GET A GRIP AND A LIFE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!11

My goodness, with flawless logic and ease of expression like that you should consider a career in the media. Perhaps not the financial media though, maybe somehing like tv listings ;)

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THIS SITE IS FULL OF SAD F**KING IDIOTS WHO HAVE NO LIFE AND NEED TO MAKE UP FOR IT......... THERE WILL BE NO CRASH. INTERESTS WON'T RISE BY MORE THAN 0.75%. THE CRASH OF THE 90S WAS DUE TO IR BEING RAISED BY THE CONSERATIVES BY ABOVE 15%. THATS WHY BOE HAVE CONTROL. THEY ARE NOT STUPID ENOUGH TO SEND US INTO ANOTHER RECESION. WHO WOULD BENEFIT???????????? NOT THE GOVERNMENT FOR SURE. THE MORTGAGE FIRMS WANT TO KEEP PEOPLE IN THERE HOUSES AS A REPOSSESION = THE LOSS OF FULL TERM BORROWING INTEREST. THE MORTGAGE FIRM WOULD LOOSE. THE LOT OF YOU NEED TO GET A GRIP AND A LIFE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!11

I now you are worried, but you shouldn't have jumped onto the ladder !

What's wrong,

did you go out for beers last night and one of your mates mentioned how this point in time looks just

like the 70's ? In fact it is so bloody close it's scarey !

The only reason you would post a comment like that is because you are scared, otherwise why give a shit about this site.

What I have learnt having worked in the City is that everything is seen short term. Everyone trys to make a quick buck ! and don't think ahead for more than one year at a time, so do you really think that the idiots at the bank of england really know what they are doing.

Markets are run on sentiment and unfortunately for us (at the moment) the housing market (in london) boomed over the last six months. This is soon to change, and once the sun has gone (the football already has) and we are into winter just watch what happens when the rates are increased.

In fact mortgage rates have already gone up approx 0.5 % over the last six months even though the press don't report this.

Inflation is more than double the reported figure, even bulls at work see that from their increasing costs. My electricty bills have increased 100 % over the last 5 years !

Anyway you may still have time to sell and make a huge profit. It is a good time to sell, so make your profit and shut up.

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Guest housep

I now you are worried, but you shouldn't have jumped onto the ladder !

What's wrong,

did you go out for beers last night and one of your mates mentioned how this point in time looks just

like the 70's ? In fact it is so bloody close it's scarey !

The only reason you would post a comment like that is because you are scared, otherwise why give a shit about this site.

What I have learnt having worked in the City is that everything is seen short term. Everyone trys to make a quick buck ! and don't think ahead for more than one year at a time, so do you really think that the idiots at the bank of england really know what they are doing.

Markets are run on sentiment and unfortunately for us (at the moment) the housing market (in london) boomed over the last six months. This is soon to change, and once the sun has gone (the football already has) and we are into winter just watch what happens when the rates are increased.

In fact mortgage rates have already gone up approx 0.5 % over the last six months even though the press don't report this.

Inflation is more than double the reported figure, even bulls at work see that from their increasing costs. My electricty bills have increased 100 % over the last 5 years !

Anyway you may still have time to sell and make a huge profit. It is a good time to sell, so make your profit and shut up.

i aint scared. you lot have tried to predict a crash which aint gonna happen. i give up with this site. i will go and live my life. you can all fester in bitterness..............

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Higher IR or a lower pound. Gordon cannot have it both ways. IR may no longer be under Gordon's control as international events are superceding him. The BoJ action may trigger the financial Tsunami that will turn the IR screw several times in the tightening direction regardless of Gordon's policies:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtm.../15/ixcoms.html

Japanese rate rise heralds a new era

(Filed: 15/07/2006)

Small step for the banks threatens repercussions for global economy, writes Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
...../
While the move was telegraphed long ago, the policy shifts mark an epochal turning point.
For the first time since the early 1980s, the Bank of Japan, the US Federal Reserve and all the top European banks are raising rates in unison, draining the excess liquidity that has fuelled the current asset boom.
Japanese pension funds, insurers, and thrifty grannies together hold assets abroad of some $2,500bn, staggering wealth that
almost matches the net overseas holdings of the rest of mankind.
If they repatriate part of this money to exploit rising returns at home, the world will feel the tremors.
....../

We therefore have the worst of all scenarios. A slowing economy triggered by recession in the US together with rising oil prices at the same time IR are headed up worldwide. Something will have to give as recessions and higher IR are not compatible for long. Gordon must face the same decision as Ben and either allow IR to remain accomodative (some say they are even negative at present) and stoke inflation or follow the rest of the world in tightening and guarantee recession.

What is interesting is the pound and its uncompetitive edge over other world currencies. At the moment it is keeping inflation lower than would otherwise be the case. It is also having a negative impact on our balance of payments as we have seen this past week. The danger is that the pound will be too high if our principal trading partners go into recession and import even less goods from us. On the other hand, if we keep IR accomodative and the pound tanks imports become more expensive and we make matters worse on the inflation front.

If Japan do what the Telegraph article suggests they might then IR will rise regardless of recession in the UK and US as the money will be repatriated to its source at higher rates than which it was borrowed. There are enormous sums of money at stake and the potential for recession or even depression is there. OUr spending binge along with the US must somehow be paid for. Our housing "wealth" is simply the money that we have borrowed cheaply. That money is becoming more expensive and there must be some effects as the IR rise.

Bottom line, things will not continue as they have been due to the IR shift. Recession is a given, IMO. How bad it will be depends on circumstances well out of our control: Japan, how deeply the US goes into recession, world events including the direction of oil prices. In all, a witches brew of unknowns but all pointing toward an IR-sensitive asset price meltdown.

Ambrose Evans Pritchard. I like his style. " ..fat yields...... narrow exits........shoes dropping......." He his the only person in the mainstream media who has any idea whats happening out there.is he an economist??, or a mere journalist??. After all the worlds economies go sh1t shaped all his articles should be compiled into a commentry of what went wrong in the final days of Rome so to speak. Where can one see an archive of his writings.

Personnally I dont believe we need an interest rate rise to crash the market.The weight of debt is enough. Once the herd thinks prices are not going to rise as much or at all, they stop buying, they stop mewing, the economies props are gone, jobs are lost, prices go down, etc etc as we all on here probably know, and the whole market chases itself down as it once chased itself up.

One question though. As japan raise rates wont the liquidity crunch in the rest of the world destroy japans own export led recovery. What will they do and whats to stop them loweering interest rates again.

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i aint scared. you lot have tried to predict a crash which aint gonna happen. i give up with this site. i will go and live my life. you can all fester in bitterness..............

Look none of the people can predict when it will happen and you know I'll admit there is a possibility that it won't.

But even you must be thinking after seeing the news stories lately that the world economy is looking shakey.

Jobs are being lost or outsourced every week and more worrying we have North Korea and the middle east to worry about.

Also I'm doing ok salary wise at the moment and I can't buy shit ! Well that's not true I'd have to borrow over 300 K for some shit hole and rule out the possibility of having a familiy in the future. Why do you think that all the big companies are outsourcing.

It's half price to employ someone in Ireland compared to the UK.

I have just moved jobs due to outsourcing and got a big payrise for doing so. You have to be flexible and tieing yourself down with a mortgage that you can barely afford is madness.

Saying that if you bought 10 years ago I'm sure you are happy and can't understand how frustrating it can be not to be able to find a place for 3.5 times your salary.

:blink:

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  • 333 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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