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Realistbear

D O W Is Plunging Again As Bond Yields Rise

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http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/060712/wall_street.html?.v=17

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE IN (DJI:^DJI) Delayed quote data Edit

Index Value: 11,015.99

Trade Time: 3:43PM ET

Change: Down 118.78 (1.07%)

Prev Close: 11,134.77

Open: 11,133.97

Day's Range: 10,995.97 - 11,149.96

52wk Range: 10,098.20 - 11,709.10

May's correction still has a way to go IMO. IR hiking season is upon us.

update:

DJ INDUSTR AVERAGE (DJI:^DJI) Edit

Index Value: 11,005.58

Trade Time: 8:50PM

Change: Down 129.19 (1.16%)

Prev Close: 11,134.77

Open: 11,133.97

Day's Range: 10,995.97 - 11,149.96

52wk Range: 10,098.20 - 11,709.10

Volume: 235,547,776

11,000 may be broken tonight :o

Edited by Realistbear

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This week will be a testing time for Dow Jones & FTSE.

As far as interest rate hikes in the UK pencil in September/October 2006 for a 1/4% hike.

That is the consensus from "those in the know"

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I sold up nearly all my funds last week, and actually made money! not bad for a first attempt, but for now the money goes back in my isa's and overpayments no my mortgage.

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I sold up nearly all my funds last week, and actually made money! not bad for a first attempt, but for now the money goes back in my isa's and overpayments no my mortgage.

Smart move--you must have caught the tail end of the sucker rally.

FTSE follows suit this morning with 5800 having already been broken:

TSE 100 (FSI:^FTSE) Edit

Index Value: 5,804.50

Trade Time: 10:13AM

Change: Down 56.10 (0.96%)

Prev Close: 5,860.60

Open: 5,860.60

Day's Range: 5,791.30 - 5,860.60

52wk Range: 5,130.90 - 6,137.10

Apart from Portugal and Spain, all the world indices seem to be deeply in the red.

Oil hitting a record this morning ($75.88) might have a lot to do with it plus political instability. It is remarkable that the pound is holding up with TB facing some difficult times. Perhaps the prospect of Gordonh ftaking over sooner rather than later have got the currency dealers excited, but then again, why? Low IR are hardly healthy for the country or the pound.

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It is remarkable that the pound is holding up with TB facing some difficult times. Perhaps the prospect of Gordonh ftaking over sooner rather than later have got the currency dealers excited, but then again, why? Low IR are hardly healthy for the country or the pound.

Could it be anything to do with Brown appointing two new cronies/doves to the MPC?

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Could it be anything to do with Brown appointing two new cronies/doves to the MPC?

Wonder how long before you get open warfare in the MPC? If the BOE members are determined to put rates up and the Right Honourable(!) Gordon Brown's stooges are saying 'no' ... it will give the aforementioned gentleman(!) the perfect opportunity to say 'Look I have to, reluctantly, take control again, the four top drawer economists on the committee all want rates held but the BOE people are being too gung-ho. The last thing we need is an interest rate rise now - it will dampen down the current record investment(?) and bear down on the ever-increasing levels of debt we need to sustain the economy.'

Are they definitely doves?

2 doves, a pigeon and an albatross.

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I would bail out of shares immediately and go into gold

The situation in the Middle East does not look good,oil prices are up again.

The Dow Joes Index may very well test the support level of 11,700 shortly.

All we need now is house prices to tumble.........

AND THEY WILL

My apologies for the error in the previous post regarding the Dow Jones.

The support level is 10,700 rather than 11,700.

It was a senior moment

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I would bail out of shares immediately and go into gold

The situation in the Middle East does not look good,oil prices are up again.

The Dow Joes Index may very well test the support level of 11,700 shortly.

All we need now is house prices to tumble.........

AND THEY WILL

My apologies for the error in the previous post regarding the Dow Jones.

The support level is 10,700 rather than 11,700.

It was a senior moment

I'm sitting on 90% gold now, and believe me it sure helps you sleep at night

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Guest wrongmove

I'm sitting on 90% gold now, and believe me it sure helps you sleep at night

Sounds a bit uncomfortable to me - I find good linen helps me sleep, but what do I know ?

:)

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Dumbass* 101:

> DOW = Market in stocks and shares

> Bonds = Governement bonds, with yields based on IRs

> So, when the market sees IR hikes down the road, they move money out of S&S and into bonds, hence DOW falls.

Correct?

:unsure:

* = Me

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FTSE had an ugly day:

FTSE 100 (FSI:^FTSE) Edit

Index Value: 5,765.00

Trade Time: 4:35PM

Change: Down 95.60 (1.63%)

Prev Close: 5,860.60

Open: 5,860.60

Day's Range: 5,751.90 - 5,860.60

52wk Range: 5,130.90 - 6,137.10

Biggest loss in a month. I still maintain that the correction that begun in May is not over yet. All of the same problems exist and have not gone away. IR are rising worldwide, the middle east is worse if anything, oil is doing its thing and the housing market is collapssing in the US which will precipitate a recession to some degree.

The DOW is still dropping and may break the 10,900 level by the close which does not bode well for Freaky Friday.

DJ INDUSTR AVERAGE (DJI:^DJI) Edit

Index Value: 10,937.86

Trade Time: 5:49PM

Change: Down 75.32 (0.68%)

Prev Close: 11,013.18

Open: 11,012.62

Day's Range: 10,901.61 - 11,012.62

52wk Range: 10,098.20 - 11,709.10

Volume: 168,231,136

http://uk.biz.yahoo.com/13072006/214/europ...om-spreads.html

Thursday July 13, 01:45 PM
Europe: Redwash as US gloom spreads
LONDON (ShareCast) - It was a
redwash across Europe today
with tech stocks leading declines across the board as oil prices surged to record levels and caution after the slump on Wall Street overnight.

Add to the mix the great unknown that will follow the BoJ tightening the screw on all that money that has been used to inflate our house prices far far beyond levels that are sustainable in a higher IR environment:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/5175320.stm

Key Japanese rate decision looms

Japan's central bank has begun a crucial two-day meeting in which it is expected to raise interest rates for the first time in six years.

:o

Edited by Realistbear

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FTSE had an ugly day:

FTSE 100 (FSI:^FTSE) Edit

Index Value: 5,765.00

Trade Time: 4:35PM

Change: Down 95.60 (1.63%)

Prev Close: 5,860.60

Open: 5,860.60

Day's Range: 5,751.90 - 5,860.60

52wk Range: 5,130.90 - 6,137.10

Biggest loss in a month. I still maintain that the correction that begun in May is not over yet. All of the same problems exist and have not gone away. IR are rising worldwide, the middle east is worse if anything, oil is doing its thing and the housing market is collapssing in the US which will precipitate a recession to some degree.

The DOW is still dropping and may break the 10,900 level by the close which does not bode well for Freaky Friday.

DJ INDUSTR AVERAGE (DJI:^DJI) Edit

Index Value: 10,937.86

Trade Time: 5:49PM

Change: Down 75.32 (0.68%)

Prev Close: 11,013.18

Open: 11,012.62

Day's Range: 10,901.61 - 11,012.62

52wk Range: 10,098.20 - 11,709.10

Volume: 168,231,136

http://uk.biz.yahoo.com/13072006/214/europ...om-spreads.html

Thursday July 13, 01:45 PM
Europe: Redwash as US gloom spreads
LONDON (ShareCast) - It was a
redwash across Europe today
with tech stocks leading declines across the board as oil prices surged to record levels and caution after the slump on Wall Street overnight.

Add to the mix the great unknown that will follow the BoJ tightening the screw on all that money that has been used to inflate our house prices far far beyond levels that are sustainable in a higher IR environment:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/5175320.stm

Key Japanese rate decision looms

Japan's central bank has begun a crucial two-day meeting in which it is expected to raise interest rates for the first time in six years.

:o

Dow Dow Dow Down !!!

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Dow Dow Dow Down !!!

Bit of realism chaps. Everyone knows that Japan and the Fed are going to raise rates. Its already in the price...... the only shock will come if it has to be more than expected.

Also why do you need to keep posting the numbers? Anyone I know who is seriously needs them has a ticker on the desktop!!

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Oil nearing $77 !!!!!!!

If the DOW hits the skids, say 500 points in a day, we might see an asset price crash worldwide and the dawning of the new era of recession. Remember, the Great House Price crash followed 17 months after the Big SM Crash of 1987. Things happen much quicker today and the BoE's warning of a 25% slide in house prices may prove to be prophetic. The feel good factor is disappearing rapidly and this will undermine sentiment for investing in houses at the top of the market.

DJ INDUSTR AVERAGE (DJI:^DJI) Edit

Index Value: 10,871.43

Trade Time: 7:41PM

Change: Down 141.75 (1.29%)

Prev Close: 11,013.18

Open: 11,012.62

Day's Range: 10,861.90 - 11,012.62

52wk Range: 10,098.20 - 11,709.10

Volume: 232,581,008

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Yikes!

DJ INDUSTR AVERAGE (DJI:^DJI) Edit

Index Value: 10,848.37

Trade Time: 7:53PM

Change: Down 164.81 (1.50%)

Prev Close: 11,013.18

Open: 11,012.62

Day's Range: 10,847.25 - 11,012.62

52wk Range: 10,098.20 - 11,709.10

Volume: 242,909,904

And the BoJ haven't even announced their IR decision yet! :o

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I think it's because the Israeli navy is bombarding a fuel depot.

You know what, I think the current globo-political-economic situation is more like the 70s than the 80s.

- The Middle East imploding again

- Commodities going nuts

- Oil reaching record highs

- Unemployment rising

- Banks lending way beyond their reserves

Get ready for severe inflation methinks!

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You know what, I think the current globo-political-economic situation is more like the 70s than the 80s.

- The Middle East imploding again

- Commodities going nuts

- Oil reaching record highs

- Unemployment rising

- Banks lending way beyond their reserves

Get ready for severe inflation methinks!

1989 here we come. HPC supersized.

Massive losses on the stocks markets in Europe today with Ireland leading the way down:

^ATX ATX (Austria) 3,662.13 8:57 Down -49.17 (-1.32%) Chart, News, more...

^BFX BEL-20 (Belgium) 3,612.59 8:57 Down -18.51 (-0.51%) Chart, Components, more...

^OMXC20C OMX Copenhagen 20 (Denmark) 370.61 11 Jul Down -1.11 (-0.30%) Chart, more...

^FCHI CAC 40 (France) 4,819.10 8:57 Down -33.42 (-0.69%) Chart, News, Components, more...

^GDAXI DAX (Germany) 5,468.64 8:42 Down -58.65 (-1.06%) Chart, News, Components, more...

^SPMIB S&P Mib (Italy) 35,649.00 8:57 Down -125.00 (-0.3494%) Chart, Components, more...

^IETP ISEQ20 (Ireland) 1,164.50 8:57 Down -17.56 (-1.49%) Chart, more...

^AEX AEX (Netherlands) 431.53 8:57 Down -2.88 (-0.66%) Chart, News, Components, more...

^OSEAX Total Share (Norway) 441.38 8:42 Down -2.13 (-0.48%) Chart, more...

^PSI20 PSI 20 (Portugal) 9,440.65 23 Jun Up 14.98 (0.16%) Chart, more...

^SMSI Madrid General (Spain) 1,235.62 13 Jul Down -17.31 (-1.38%) Chart, Components, more...

^OMXSPI OMX Stockholm 30 (Sweden) 295.97 8:42 Down -2.72 (-0.91%) Chart, more...

^SSMI Swiss Market (Switzerland) 7,542.35 8:57 Down -45.61 (-0.60%) Chart, Components, more...

^FTSE FTSE 100 (United Kingdom) 5,743.60 8:57 Down -21.40 (-0.37%)

ASIA looks horrible, just horrible:

^AORD All Ordinaries (Australia) 4,943.80 7:17 Down -110.90 (-2.194%) Chart, more...

000001.SS Shanghai Composite (China) 1,161.85 12 Oct, 2005 Up 4.66 (0.40%) Chart, more...

^HSI Hang Seng (Hong Kong) 15,774.70 27 Jun Down -30.11 (-0.19%) Chart, News, more...

^BSESN BSE 30 (India) 10,642.42 8:57 Down -164.13 (-1.52%) Chart, more...

^JKSE Jakarta Composite (Indonesia) 1,298.806 8:57 Down -35.223 (-2.6403%) Chart, more...

^N225 Nikkei 225 (Japan) 14,845.24 7:00 Down -252.71 (-1.67%) Chart, News, more...

^KLSE KLSE Composite (Malaysia) 914.64 8:57 Down -11.91 (-1.29%) Chart, more...

^NZ50 NZSE 50 (New Zealand) 3,619.435 6:33 Down -46.799 (-1.276%) Chart, more...

^STI Strait Times (Singapore) 2,360.05 8:57 Down -36.59 (-1.53%) Chart, News, more...

^KS11 Seoul Composite (South Korea) 1,255.13 7:02 Down -29.89 (-2.33%) Chart, News, more...

^TWII Taiwan Weighted (Taiwan) 6,428.03 6:46 Down -139.57 (-2.13%) Chart, more...

Edited by Realistbear

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IR are rising worldwide, the middle east is worse if anything, oil is doing its thing and the housing market is collapssing in the US which will precipitate a recession to some degree.

This is the bit I don't get. The Yanks have been raising their rates to slow down the (consumption driven) growth that happened as a result of 1% rates post 9/11.

And we're all waiting and praying for higher IRs here to get the crash going.

If the Yanks go into recession, won't they just drop rates again?

Bit of realism chaps. Everyone knows that Japan and the Fed are going to raise rates. Its already in the price...... the only shock will come if it has to be more than expected.

Also why do you need to keep posting the numbers? Anyone I know who is seriously needs them has a ticker on the desktop!!

Well I don't. Happy to see the numbers posted here, saves me looking elsewhere.

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This is the bit I don't get. The Yanks have been raising their rates to slow down the (consumption driven) growth that happened as a result of 1% rates post 9/11.

And we're all waiting and praying for higher IRs here to get the crash going.

If the Yanks go into recession, won't they just drop rates again?

Well I don't. Happy to see the numbers posted here, saves me looking elsewhere.

I think you are right. THe US will have to begin lowering rates once a serious recession begins. Al and now Ben have factored in a limited HPC in the hot markets in the US (the entire UK is a once "hot" market) which will drop, or possibly crash, after the hiking begins to bite. The difficult thing to predict is if the IR hikes will go too far and trip a prolonged recession where not only house prices will tank but everything else along with it.

Gordon is in a more difficult position because his HPI-MEW driven economy is totally dependent on low IR. He canot "crash" a segment of the house market without crashing all of it. There is, in other words, no "limited burn" option for Gordon that the US have open to them given the shere diversity of their market.

A limited recession in the US is a given IMO. It will impact its principle trading partners, namely the UK and the EU. The old rule that when America sneezes Europe catches a cold will still apply as the trading relationships are still there. All the talk about "fragile recoveries" this side of the pond are precisley due to the US economy and Ben's limited burn option being followed with IR hikes.

Add oil and war to the mix and the whole process becomes accelerated but the direction remains unaffected. Recession it is because inflation is the no go zone.

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Guest Cletus VanDamme

I think you are right. THe US will have to begin lowering rates once a serious recession begins.

I'm betting on no changes to BoE IR this year.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/5175986.stm

Howard Archer of Capital Economics said: "The somewhat mixed BCC survey reinforces the case for interest rates to remain on hold for some time to come."

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I'm betting on no changes to BoE IR this year.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/5175986.stm

You could be right. If recession bites early enough Gordon will not have to take any action on IR. Unemployment is already on the rise and oil prices will start to impact spending which are the two factors that triggered the Great Crash of 1989 (which followed the Stoick Market crash of 1987--de ja vu?). IMO, the employment numbers are the barometer. Spending less so because of the credit culture that continues to linger.

With the US going into recession demand for Europena goods will be impacted and recession will spread here. Gordon may be working on a recession containment policy and hoping to ascend to No. 10 before things get really rough by Autumn in my view. Right about when the banks will be passing on that BoJ hike!

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Guest Cletus VanDamme

You could be right. If recession bites early enough Gordon will not have to take any action on IR.

I've got to make the call on this soon: my mortgage deal expires at end-August and I need to decide on whether to continue with the 2-year tracker at BoE -0.13% or go for a 5 or 10-year fix at 5.18%.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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