Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
Sign in to follow this  
BayAreaBear

Bayareabear Returns

Recommended Posts

Here it is for those who know.

house_gold.png

Now that the new trends are well established I dont have as much interest in updating as I used to.

But lets just say that houses are looking better, but not yet good, value.

Another double in the POG (or halving of the house price) will make houses look buyable for those with any capital left.

Another double in the POG looks do-able. I doubt house prices could halve.

The historically unprecedent 50% premium on a UK house over a US house still exists. Given the ever more apparent disrespect for private property and individual freedoms now on display by the communist Blair government I expect that will be resolved by a currency event.

Thats all for another 3 months.

BAB

post-697-1152398549.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest Alright Jack

If you're fortunate enough to be holding enough of the yellow stuff to be a full cash buyer then this would work very well. Trouble is, supposing you only hold your deposit in gold, the problem of affordability doesn't really go away until wages double also.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Here it is for those who know.

house_gold.png

Now that the new trends are well established I dont have as much interest in updating as I used to.

But lets just say that houses are looking better, but not yet good, value.

Another double in the POG (or halving of the house price) will make houses look buyable for those with any capital left.

Another double in the POG looks do-able. I doubt house prices could halve.

The historically unprecedent 50% premium on a UK house over a US house still exists. Given the ever more apparent disrespect for private property and individual freedoms now on display by the communist Blair government I expect that will be resolved by a currency event.

Thats all for another 3 months.

BAB

The historically unprecedent 50% premium on a UK house over a US house still exists. Given the ever more apparent disrespect for private property and individual freedoms now on display by the communist Blair government I expect that will be resolved by a currency event
.

With Gordon Brown so far refusing to allow the BoE to adjust IR in alignment with the rest of the world and to combat inflation, which is denied by him, it is clear that he is relying on sterling to do the job. With the US $ at 1.85 it appears that the world still places a great deal of confidence in Gordon to keep the Miracle Economy based on cheap Asian credit going. The trade deficit with Asia is being offset by exports to Europe and this may not be the case for much longer given the elimination of manufacturing jobs and the erosion of service sector jobs that are being exported to places where labour is competitive.

The problem for Gordon is that he will face a "sterling event" at some point in the near future as the IR differentials are widening with the rest of the world. A low dollar will stifle exports to the US and make US made goods much more attractive--hence the orders for the new Boeing at the expess of the troubled Airbus super plane.

Ben is not afraid to hike rates and make matters worse for the bubble housing markets on the coasts. So what if they tank 50%? A recession will undoubtedly flow from this but it will be mild in comparison to a similar event in the UK where the entire nation is facing a bubble burst.

A few more months of severe drops in average house prices will unsettle the currency the markets as they know the future success of Brown's economy is based on stimulus from borrowing to buy more and more expensive houses. The lenders are having to fuel the fire with the dregs from the coal bucket now--the marginal credit buyers. Once these run out it will collapse and collapse very hard. Sterling will react and without a miracle economy to back it up IR will have to prop up the pound. HPC is inevitable.

Gold may be a good bet but sterling is possibly the worst place to be.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.