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sam

Did A Few Calculations Last Night After The 1.2% Fall

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Just to put things in perspective, i did a few calculations last night, and i worked out that i would need 1.2% falls every month for the next 2 years(24 months) before i could even think about getting my own place, we still have a long way to go.

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Hopefully rising interest rates will speed things up.

Price falls will also start to become self-perpetuating.

People at my work were talking about the Halifax price falls, the public are catching on slowly...

Edited by BandWagon

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Unfortunately, even with this price fall you still have to accomodate that prices have risen strongly through the year. So even if you get falling prices through the year, we'll probably end the year where we started.

Which still leads me to think we will probably not see much in the way of nominal falls, inflation will do the damage over a period of years.

As for rising IRs, I'm not even sure we'll see it happeneing as the housing market will probably cool, wage inflation is tame and unemployment is rising. A cooling housing market will be a god send to the BoE.

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Hopefully rising interest rates will speed things up.

Price falls will also start to become self-perpetuating.

People at my work were talking about the Halifax price falls, the public are catching on slowly...

But rememeber BW, this fall was one of the biggest EVER, the chances of getting equal large falls or bigger for the next 24 months is unlikely, i expect to be waiting longer than 24 months.

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When a roller coaster hits the top of the peak it is very slow. You hear the wheels grinding and the wooden frame of the structure creaking. The wheels have a slow click click click. Then the peak is reached and there is an eerie silence. The roller coaster starts its descent very slowly and the wind starts to pick up and the knuckles start to lose a little colour as they grip the safety bar. Little by little turns into rapidly gaining momentum and the slow click click click of the wheels becomes a rapid fire clickity clack clickity clack until the noise blends into one ear piercing screech as the wind turns into a hurricane force and the roller coaster careens downward. Yards pass in milliseconds and all you can do is scream as your stomach is left behind.

That's what the HPC will feel like when momentum builds. Its always slow in the begionning. :)

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But rememeber BW, this fall was one of the biggest EVER, the chances of getting equal large falls or bigger for the next 24 months is unlikely, i expect to be waiting longer than 24 months.

Remember the last crash took 7 years peak to trough, and that was quite a violent correction.

This correction could take 10 years, maybe longer.

Nobody knows...

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Remember the last crash took 7 years peak to trough, and that was quite a violent correction.

This correction could take 10 years, maybe longer.

Nobody knows...

IMO, the crash will be different this time. There is more borrowing propping it up and international pressure to raise rates. The government is losing credibility rapidly and sentiment is turning nasty around the country. Brown's star is fading rapidly now that it has been revelaed that he has undermined pensions and plans to rob the funds of 5billion to keep his miracle economy alive.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtm.../ixcitytop.html

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtm...mp;targetRule=1

My bet is that we will see a very rapid descent to the bottom and a very long spell in the trough. 2 years to hit bottom and 10 years at the bottom. Inflation adjusted, of course! If you don't re-invest in a house keep well diversified and watch out for sterling.

Edited by Realistbear

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As for rising IRs, I'm not even sure we'll see it happeneing as the housing market will probably cool, wage inflation is tame and unemployment is rising. A cooling housing market will be a god send to the BoE.

Short-term interest rate markets are already pricing in a 25 bp rise.

You will find mortgage banks start removing their lowest offers, ie the interest rates in the market are already moving up, despite the fact that the BoE haven't yet raised rates.

Even if the BoE don't raise rates, people trying to get cheaper mortgages will find that rates have gone up.

http://www.thefinancials.com/ZoomChart.html?id=i001266v.PDF

Edited by BandWagon

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Just to put things in perspective, i did a few calculations last night, and i worked out that i would need 1.2% falls every month for the next 2 years(24 months) before i could even think about getting my own place, we still have a long way to go.

The instant the average home is affordable to you will be the time to buy?

This will of course sustain prices so they are acceptable to you & others in the same wage bracket.

Those above your bracket will be laughing even louder.

Those below your bracket will be cursing.

Much the same situation we have now, it just puts you in a slot you are not happy with at present.

Champions of the masses = VI.

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Guest The_Oldie

The instant the average home is affordable to you will be the time to buy?

This will of course sustain prices so they are acceptable to you & others in the same wage bracket.

Those above your bracket will be laughing even louder.

Those below your bracket will be cursing.

Much the same situation we have now, it just puts you in a slot you are not happy with at present.

Champions of the masses = VI.

To start with, you are probably correct. When prices drop say 15%, a number of those waiting, who can afford to, will jump in. However, as the correction continues, sentiment will change and those waiting for further drops will hold fire to see just how far the market will drop.

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  • 337 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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