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When It All Goes Pete Tong.............

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Guest mattsta1964

When Gordon's miracle economy implodes, how serious do forum members thing the impending downturn will be?

Up until which point in time in recent years do you consider a house purchase to have been a reasonably safe investment. I bought my first gaff in 2001 and I though property was already over valued 5 years ago but was desperate for a place of my own.

I know they're 'how long is a piece of string?' kinda questions but I'd be interested to hear your views.

I think the next recession, when it comes will be very severe and possibly 'Great Depression' style. Not that I'm a pessimistic type of person...... :blink:

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Guest mattsta1964

It’s going to be a bit like the opening scene in scarface – in the shower with the chainsaw. :(

:D:D:D

Good to see someone sharing my optimism!

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When Gordon's miracle economy implodes, how serious do forum members thing the impending downturn will be?

Up until which point in time in recent years do you consider a house purchase to have been a reasonably safe investment. I bought my first gaff in 2001 and I though property was already over valued 5 years ago but was desperate for a place of my own.

I know they're 'how long is a piece of string?' kinda questions but I'd be interested to hear your views.

I think the next recession, when it comes will be very severe and possibly 'Great Depression' style. Not that I'm a pessimistic type of person...... :blink:

Gonna be awhile yet, too bouyed by family helping out, IOs aplenty, fixed deals, property sharing, part buy/part rent, all extended during failure by relaxed bankruptcy laws & introduction of soft arsed IVAs.

Depends on what you mean by 'safe investment', despite what goes on here, most people buy a house because they want to live there, what other people want to pay to own it is of little consequence till you fall on hard times, or wish to get out the rat race.

If you have bought for investment, if it's long term it little matters, as rents generally don't fall, & properties generally rise in value over time.

IMO any recession will be no worse than the 80s, look on the bright side, one of us can say "I told you so!"

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Guest mattsta1964

Gonna be awhile yet, too bouyed by family helping out, IOs aplenty, fixed deals, property sharing, part buy/part rent, all extended during failure by relaxed bankruptcy laws & introduction of soft arsed IVAs.

Depends on what you mean by 'safe investment', despite what goes on here, most people buy a house because they want to live there, what other people want to pay to own it is of little consequence till you fall on hard times, or wish to get out the rat race.

If you have bought for investment, if it's long term it little matters, as rents generally don't fall, & properties generally rise in value over time.

IMO any recession will be no worse than the 80s, look on the bright side, one of us can say "I told you so!"

I was never interested in property as an investment. Like most other people on here, I just want a place of my own to live in.

The greatest crime ever committed against our people is the usurpment of the money supply by the banks and financial institutions. They bear ultimate responsibility for the mess we are in.

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Guest Alright Jack

I was never interested in property as an investment. Like most other people on here, I just want a place of my own to live in.

The greatest crime ever committed against our people is the usurpment of the money supply by the banks and financial institutions. They bear ultimate responsibility for the mess we are in.

Well you've changed your tune since I spoke with you the other day on another thread.

That is, of course, unless you somehow think that governments printing money (all that social credit ******) is okay instead of central banks doing it on their behalf.

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I was never interested in property as an investment. Like most other people on here, I just want a place of my own to live in.

The greatest crime ever committed against our people is the usurpment of the money supply by the banks and financial institutions. They bear ultimate responsibility for the mess we are in.

I have to disagree to an extent,

Same principle, if you are given a holiday voucher, go away & lose a leg in an accident in Majorca, it is not the fault of the supplier of the holiday voucher.

You were given the means & made the choice.

If the bank lends money, & a lender borrows beyond their means, they have probably lied in the first place to obtain the loan, the bank can only put so many safeguards in place.

I say it again, everybody wants 'free choice' till they make a mess of it, then somebody "should have stopped them".

If the risk pays off, they are 'sooooo clever',

if it goes sour, 'it isn't their fault!'

The FTBs borrowing off wealthy families for deposits so they can borrow to buy a house have played no part in sustaining high prices?

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I have to disagree to an extent,

Same principle, if you are given a holiday voucher, go away & lose a leg in an accident in Majorca, it is not the fault of the supplier of the holiday voucher.

You were given the means & made the choice.

If the bank lends money, & a lender borrows beyond their means, they have probably lied in the first place to obtain the loan, the bank can only put so many safeguards in place.

I say it again, everybody wants 'free choice' till they make a mess of it, then somebody "should have stopped them".

If the risk pays off, they are 'sooooo clever',

if it goes sour, 'it isn't their fault!'

The FTBs borrowing off wealthy families for deposits so they can borrow to buy a house have played no part in sustaining high prices?

True - you're ultimately responsible for your own actions, no doubt - however, people don't live in isolation, they react to the world they live in. The world around them controls how they behave, what they believe, what they think is right, what they thing is wrong. People are easily influenced, controlled. Those who pull the strings might not bear responsibility at the individual level, but they are largely in control of the prevailing system within which people live.

Going to a higher macro economic level, I think it is indisputable that debt based finance as promulgated by the private banks is the root cause of our economic problems. The system is broken.

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Guest mattsta1964

Well you've changed your tune since I spoke with you the other day on another thread.

That is, of course, unless you somehow think that governments printing money (all that social credit ******) is okay instead of central banks doing it on their behalf.

I've never changed my tune.

There's a big difference between a democratically elected government creating debt free money compared with a bank creating money out of thin air and lending it into the economy at interest to enrich its shareholders

That's not to say that private institutions shouldn't be able to lend money, but there needs to be a balance in how the money supply is created

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Guest mattsta1964

True - you're ultimately responsible for your own actions, no doubt - however, people don't live in isolation, they react to the world they live in. The world around them controls how they behave, what they believe, what they think is right, what they thing is wrong. People are easily influenced, controlled. Those who pull the strings might not bear responsibility at the individual level, but they are largely in control of the prevailing system within which people live.

Going to a higher macro economic level, I think it is indisputable that debt based finance as promulgated by the private banks is the root cause of our economic problems. The system is broken.

I totally agree with what you're saying. I also bear some responsibility if things go terribly wrong but surely, but as affordable housing is an essential requirement for ALL people, this situation should never have been allowed to get so out of hand in the first place. I though we had learnt this lesson after the last property crash. No such luck

Just imagine how much money would be released into the economy if so much money wasn't being sucked out of the economy to service huge levels of debt.

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When Gordon's miracle economy implodes, how serious do forum members thing the impending downturn will be?

Up until which point in time in recent years do you consider a house purchase to have been a reasonably safe investment. I bought my first gaff in 2001 and I though property was already over valued 5 years ago but was desperate for a place of my own.

I know they're 'how long is a piece of string?' kinda questions but I'd be interested to hear your views.

I think the next recession, when it comes will be very severe and possibly 'Great Depression' style. Not that I'm a pessimistic type of person...... :blink:

Quite a few reports a couple months ago seemed to suggest that the market didn't display bubble characteristics until about 2003. I think they were overpriced in 2001 also.

Average salary is something like 25k now? So assuming they revert to long term average of 3.5 times average salary then about 90k ish plus 10k deposit, say about 100k. 110k for good measure. That's about a 40% drop. Sounds reasonable to me. Then these things always overshoot and some areas would be worse hit than others. All guesswork though. Comparing to rents is another way of looking at it but I don't have any figures in my head and can't be arsed to look.

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Just imagine how much money would be released into the economy if so much money wasn't being sucked out of the economy to service huge levels of debt.

Exactly.

The BoE is a privately owned institution legally entitled to create money from nothing.

Why should a private citizen be given that right above his peers?

Why should our government borrow money from a private citizen, created from nothing by that citizen, and then pay interest on it? We pay that interest in our taxes.

It is so simple. In the beginning there was Adam and Eve. Then they had a son. After 20 years of bliss, writing each other IOU's, their son had an idea. He decreed that the only way to exchange effort in Eden is with this "money". He printed and lent them a tenner each. "I want 15 back from you each next year because it was terribly difficult to print, took me ages.", he left. "But there's only 20 quid here, how can we pay him back 30 next year?" thought Adam too late, already planning on pushing Eve out of the apple business.

Their son returned next year, and the business cycle began. 5 years later, both Adam and Eve relaxed in their rented a corner of Eden, when they weren't both working to pay of the debt their son created.

Until central banks are destroyed, we will wage financial and total war on each other, to keep a tiny minority of people very rich.

The system is broken and it's so obvious that noone can see it.

Money is not the root of all evil. Interest is. In this case the private interests of and those that control it, and through it, control us all. We pay for our own chains.

Sorry, it just really hacks me off.

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Guest mattsta1964

Exactly.

The BoE is a privately owned institution legally entitled to create money from nothing.

Why should a private citizen be given that right above his peers?

Why should our government borrow money from a private citizen, created from nothing by that citizen, and then pay interest on it? We pay that interest in our taxes.

It is so simple. In the beginning there was Adam and Eve. Then they had a son. After 20 years of bliss, writing each other IOU's, their son had an idea. He decreed that the only way to exchange effort in Eden is with this "money". He printed and lent them a tenner each. "I want 15 back from you each next year because it was terribly difficult to print, took me ages.", he left. "But there's only 20 quid here, how can we pay him back 30 next year?" thought Adam too late, already planning on pushing Eve out of the apple business.

Their son returned next year, and the business cycle began. 5 years later, both Adam and Eve relaxed in their rented a corner of Eden, when they weren't both working to pay of the debt their son created.

Until central banks are destroyed, we will wage financial and total war on each other, to keep a tiny minority of people very rich.

The system is broken and it's so obvious that noone can see it.

Money is not the root of all evil. Interest is. In this case the private interests of and those that control it, and through it, control us all. We pay for our own chains.

Yup! That about sums it up

Maybe we should all join the Money Reform Party

Sorry, it just really hacks me off.

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True - you're ultimately responsible for your own actions, no doubt - however, people don't live in isolation, they react to the world they live in. The world around them controls how they behave, what they believe, what they think is right, what they thing is wrong. People are easily influenced, controlled. Those who pull the strings might not bear responsibility at the individual level, but they are largely in control of the prevailing system within which people live.

Going to a higher macro economic level, I think it is indisputable that debt based finance as promulgated by the private banks is the root cause of our economic problems. The system is broken.

It's not always the system, it's the people abusing it.

Not everybody is in debt way over their heads, some of us manage fine on an income that others would consider insufficient.

People are allowed to drown in debt if they choose, not to allow them that choice would instil a forum such as this complaining that we are not trusted to maintain our own finances, how unfair it is, & verges on the ege of communism.

If anything, the deterrent to not managing is too soft.

The people being punished for the irresponsible borrowers are the responsible borrowers, who would have more interest on their savings if it weren't for the wasters.

The banks are merely sorting machines for profit/loss between the two parties.

Overborrowing is punished by what: taking away that which you shouldn't have bought anyway, & removing the means to do it again for a while. Being made bankrupt is a means of control over finances, that you are advocating for everybody whether they deserve it or not.

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Guest mattsta1964

It's not always the system, it's the people abusing it.

Not everybody is in debt way over their heads, some of us manage fine on an income that others would consider insufficient.

People are allowed to drown in debt if they choose, not to allow them that choice would instil a forum such as this complaining that we are not trusted to maintain our own finances, how unfair it is, & verges on the ege of communism.

If anything, the deterrent to not managing is too soft.

The people being punished for the irresponsible borrowers are the responsible borrowers, who would have more interest on their savings if it weren't for the wasters.

The banks are merely sorting machines for profit/loss between the two parties.

Overborrowing is punished by what: taking away that which you shouldn't have bought anyway, & removing the means to do it again for a while. Being made bankrupt is a means of control over finances, that you are advocating for everybody whether they deserve it or not.

But the vast majority of people are very naive financially. The Panorama programme the other night perfectly demonstrated that. The government and the banks must share responsibility for that. It's no use blaming people who are living beyond their means when they are duped so badly into thinking they can borrow their way to prosperity

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But the vast majority of people are very naive financially. The Panorama programme the other night perfectly demonstrated that. The government and the banks must share responsibility for that. It's no use blaming people who are living beyond their means when they are duped so badly into thinking they can borrow their way to prosperity

As an example, how much control should be exerted over peoples finances?

Only allowed one credit card?

Only allowed one car?

Do limitations get put it & how?

Education perhaps?

There has been sex education in schools for years now but teenage pregnancies are rising still.

There are a great deal more consumer luxuries available & everybody wants them NOW.

At the moment responsible borrowers are penalised by little benefit of responsible borowing, were they to be too controlled they would ultimately be penalised again by removing them the right to over borrow maybe, but deal with it responsibly.

Somebody is always going to suffer.

Could there be more publicity about bad debts, but people still go there, the same way everybody knows speed cameras are there but thousands are caught every day.

It's not naivety, it's just that there is not a harsh enough deterrent to dissuade from default.

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Depends on what you mean by 'safe investment', despite what goes on here, most people buy a house because they want to live there, what other people want to pay to own it is of little consequence till you fall on hard times, or wish to get out the rat race.

If you have bought for investment, if it's long term it little matters, as rents generally don't fall, & properties generally rise in value over time.

IMO any recession will be no worse than the 80s

Hurrah. A logical post rather than the usual manic gloom and figure laden guesses :D:D

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Guest mattsta1964

As an example, how much control should be exerted over peoples finances?

Only allowed one credit card?

Only allowed one car?

Do limitations get put it & how?

Education perhaps?

There has been sex education in schools for years now but teenage pregnancies are rising still.

There are a great deal more consumer luxuries available & everybody wants them NOW.

At the moment responsible borrowers are penalised by little benefit of responsible borowing, were they to be too controlled they would ultimately be penalised again by removing them the right to over borrow maybe, but deal with it responsibly.

Somebody is always going to suffer.

Could there be more publicity about bad debts, but people still go there, the same way everybody knows speed cameras are there but thousands are caught every day.

It's not naivety, it's just that there is not a harsh enough deterrent to dissuade from default.

The freedom to own 20 credit cards and 5 cars in the driveway wont mean jack s*it in the not too distant future.

I know it sounds very Stalinist, but I think there should be tighter credit controls and the power of the banks to exclusively control the money supply MUST be reined in.

The way the world is heading, there will be so much debt in the world, it will be impossible for any country even to service the interest on the money owed, let alone the capital. The compound interest on global debt is increasing exponentially. Ask yourself, would you prefer government intervention with respect to lending or would you like to see the whole global economy collapse? It's a very real possibility it could happen in the next 10-15 years. In the worst case scenario, It'll make the Great Depression of the 30's seem like a cake walk. I know this forum is about house prices but consider the bigger picture too. If people wont take responsibility for their finances (And we can be sure they wont) then government will have to do it for them. AND The banks must not be allowed to monopolise money supply.

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The freedom to own 20 credit cards and 5 cars in the driveway wont mean jack s*it in the not too distant future.

I know it sounds very Stalinist, but I think there should be tighter credit controls and the power of the banks to exclusively control the money supply MUST be reined in.

The way the world is heading, there will be so much debt in the world, it will be impossible for any country even to service the interest on the money owed, let alone the capital. The compound interest on global debt is increasing exponentially. Ask yourself, would you prefer government intervention with respect to lending or would you like to see the whole global economy collapse? It's a very real possibility it could happen in the next 10-15 years. In the worst case scenario, It'll make the Great Depression of the 30's seem like a cake walk. I know this forum is about house prices but consider the bigger picture too. If people wont take responsibility for their finances (And we can be sure they wont) then government will have to do it for them. AND The banks must not be allowed to monopolise money supply.

In agreement IMO.

There used to be stricter controls, they have been largely removed, it's proved a point as to why there were any restrictions placed originally, they will probably be re-applied.

I guess this will lead to some degree of recession as spending power is reduced, but will eventually pick up again hopefully.

Possibly leading to lower interest rates perpetually & very little saving money, instead all purchases on credit, allbeit tightly controlled.

New age consumerism.

Of course, many different possibilities can equally apply.

I still don't agree it is the fault of the banks, just they have given the free choice to those that wished it, it seems the banks are damned if they do & damned if they don't.

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Gonna be awhile yet, too bouyed by family helping out, IOs aplenty, fixed deals, property sharing, part buy/part rent, all extended during failure by relaxed bankruptcy laws & introduction of soft arsed IVAs.

Depends on what you mean by 'safe investment', despite what goes on here, most people buy a house because they want to live there, what other people want to pay to own it is of little consequence till you fall on hard times, or wish to get out the rat race.

If you have bought for investment, if it's long term it little matters, as rents generally don't fall, & properties generally rise in value over time.

IMO any recession will be no worse than the 80s, look on the bright side, one of us can say "I told you so!"

what the hell do you mean rents dont fall/ where are you being living

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what the hell do you mean rents dont fall/ where are you being living

Sorry, rents generally rise in pace with inflation, don't they?

That means they don't fall, doesn't it?

Am I missing something?

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Guest mattsta1964

In agreement IMO.

There used to be stricter controls, they have been largely removed, it's proved a point as to why there were any restrictions placed originally, they will probably be re-applied.

I guess this will lead to some degree of recession as spending power is reduced, but will eventually pick up again hopefully.

Possibly leading to lower interest rates perpetually & very little saving money, instead all purchases on credit, allbeit tightly controlled.

New age consumerism.

Of course, many different possibilities can equally apply.

I still don't agree it is the fault of the banks, just they have given the free choice to those that wished it, it seems the banks are damned if they do & damned if they don't.

The usurpment of the money supply by the Banks started in earnest back in 1971 when the Federal Reserve abandoned the Gold Standard. The world has been living in denial ever since. I don't know enough about how that happened to make informed judgement about who's to blame. And the Yanks lecture the world about terrorism!

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Sorry, rents generally rise in pace with inflation, don't they?

That means they don't fall, doesn't it?

Am I missing something?

rents in london have been falling in cash terms for some years now.

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Sorry, rents generally rise in pace with inflation, don't they?

That means they don't fall, doesn't it?

Am I missing something?

In 1994 I paid £600 a month for a house worth £60,000, 12 years later, I pay the same for a place that would cost £300,000.

The failure of rents to respond to the supply vs demand arguments of the bulls is the thing that damns this market the most.

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i can remember 1989-91 and it didnt damage the day to day regional economies that much. there were a few washed up individuals in neg equity, but not many. it was slow, but with the rise of the car boot sale and the cheaper shell tracksuits available, things were pretty managable on the whole.

prepare this time for new adaptations of modern low income life. being that the car boot is done to death, id suggest this time, spectres of thecrash can be thigns such as 'farmers direct markets' 'roaming meat vans' 'clothing direct from the manufacturers websites' 'new smells in the form of essential oils'

modern tv has lost a lot of its importance, so dont expect a new blockbusters or bullseye to help you through the weeks. i think coarse fishing uptake will increase. modern crab will be all the rage in supermarkets. music ? i expect to become more 'earthy' as we all learn to die that little bit more.

see you all in hell....

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  • 336 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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