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Could Protests Result In House Price Cuts?

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Yes, protesting will make a difference. It will make some people and politicians feel guilty about BTL excesses and NIMBYism. BTL will become a less fashionable investment and building more houses will become an attractive policy area (both main political parties are moving in this direction already).

frugalista

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I don't think it will. MPs would fear an overwhelming backlash of falling prices and it's effects. Also, with most baby boomers and older folk owning houses and more likely to vote than their younger, celebrity wannabe/obsessed counter parts I think there probably isn't much hope for the young.

(See how the pension rip-off has faded away with not even a hint of annoyance from the young?)

:huh:

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In tribute to Marina's popular thread.

Please read the options carefully and vote honestly.

Yes. They will also stop the war in Iraq, bring the DO-DO back to life, replace the car with the flying unicorn as the main form of transport and start yet another stupid thread on this forum.

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Well I;ve voted and it doesn't take much imagination to guess which one I chose.

I actually didn't want to see the results - but got shown them anyway as soon as I had voted.

Confirms my worst fears.

Looks like it's every man for himself.

A chap who used to be my boss when I worked in the construction industry had an expression he often used. Before a sub-contractor was due to start on a site (I am talking big multi-million jobs in London) we would have a series of meetings to make sure they had production in hand and were gearing up to put men on the site at the right time. Often you would find yourself dealing with someone who would find every reason in the world why they couldn't start their part of the work. It was galling to us as we were often working long hours 7 days a week to keep a job on program and balancing the demands of lots of different trades to try to keep things moving forwards as fast as possible. When we got someone about to join the fray who didn't get it - who didn't realise you just had to dive in and make things work my boss used to come out of the meeting and just say 'He's f*ucked before he starts'.

That's how I see your generation. F*ucked before you start out in life, and, for some reason I really cannot begin to fathom, unwilling to do anything about it. I would understand it if you just said 'can't be @rsed' - but you try to rationalize your lack of action and justify it by saying it wouldn't work - despite endless examples throughout history of protests influencing events.

Fathers 4 Justice influenced events. I don't care what you say. When judges sit in family courts now the father's rights are much higher on the agenda than they were.

The pensioners who have gone to jail rather than pay above inflation rises in Council Tax have influenced events. Council Tax reform is on the political agenda.

The Countryside Alliance influenced events - they didn't stop the law but they seem to have convinced the police not to prosecute anyone for hunting.

The protest against the Iraq war influenced events - it didn't stop the war but it might have stopped a war against Iran.

The poll tax riots got rid of the poll tax.

In a different country protest hastened the end of the Vietnam war.

In this country Ban the Bomb marches played a part in making politicians realise that nuclear war was not an option.

But you have convinced yourselves that protesting about being priced out of the property market by investors will not serve any purpose. I just don't understand you. I'm tempted to say you deserve what you get - but that would be heartless. I am completely baffled by your attitude.

Governments don't like protest - especially when it is justified. Your plight is so far down the agenda it might as well not be on there. With the media obsession with property, you could easily get it to the top of the agenda. But, it won't work, will it.

Good luck anyway. As I said above, I guess in your world it's every man for himself. Collective action for the common good does not seem to be part of your make-up.

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That's how I see your generation. F*ucked before you start out in life, and, for some reason I really cannot begin to fathom, unwilling to do anything about it. I would understand it if you just said 'can't be @rsed' - but you try to rationalize your lack of action and justify it by saying it wouldn't work - despite endless examples throughout history of protests influencing events.

The BBC action site is addressing some of the issues:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/dna/actionnetwork/C2462

But what we need is planning reform on a national scale. Demand is still too high for housing to be truly affordable.

http://www.adamsmith.org/images/uploads/pu...landeconomy.pdf - you will not regret the time spent reading this...

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'He's f*ucked before he starts'.

This site is getting fcuked by certain whingers, yes.

Fathers 4 Justice influenced events. I don't care what you say. When judges sit in family courts now the father's rights are much higher on the agenda than they were.
Yeah maybe
The pensioners who have gone to jail rather than pay above inflation rises in Council Tax have influenced events. Council Tax reform is on the political agenda.
Because people already care about pensioners.
The Countryside Alliance influenced events - they didn't stop the law but they seem to have convinced the police not to prosecute anyone for hunting.
And because the law has loop holes you could run a combine harvester through.
The protest against the Iraq war influenced events - it didn't stop the war but it might have stopped a war against Iran.
No, the 100K troops kept in Iraq has stalled our glorious entry into Iran.
The poll tax riots got rid of the poll tax.
A fine example of protest. One guy ended up with a piece of scaffolding through him. And it wasn't that bad a tax.
In a different country protest hastened the end of the Vietnam war.
Bloody hippies.
In this country Ban the Bomb marches played a part in making politicians realise that nuclear war was not an option.
Trident is about to get a refurb for crying out loud!!!

The market will out. Regardless of how much you whinge on here about our lack of protesting.

Edited by RichM

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Agree 100% with RichM.

None of the examples of 'successful' protest had a market sitting behind them. Do you think some greedster refusing to sell their house unless they can get a fat perceived profit will give a damn about some shrill whingers with placards?

You. Can't. Buck. The. Market.

The tide is (has?) turned. Be patient.

Edited by tahoma

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BTL will become a less fashionable investment

frugalista

Only when the market makes it so...

I don't think it will. MPs would fear an overwhelming backlash of falling prices and it's effects. Also, with most baby boomers and older folk owning houses and more likely to vote than their younger, celebrity wannabe/obsessed counter parts I think there probably isn't much hope for the young.

(See how the pension rip-off has faded away with not even a hint of annoyance from the young?)

:huh:

More of the older generation want a fall in prices than you could ever imagine. What makes you think otherwise?

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More of the older generation want a fall in prices than you could ever imagine. What makes you think otherwise?

No. From what I see, the older generation use this a token gesture of support for the young 'uns. I don't think there's any serious drive to see lower prices amongst the older people.

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Do you think it's possible that protests could be counter productive?

My reasoning goes as follows: When prospective BTL landlords/homeowners realise how shafted young people are at the moment, they will be even more likely to panic and think "I had better buy now while I still can". This might bizarrely increase consumer confidence just at a time when the market should be on the rocks anyway.

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There is one message you can put out there that can make a massive difference to this nation's House Price obsession:

Rising house prices are not a good thing for you or your family...

Protesting can help get this message out there, so I'm all for it (as you've probably guessed already).

Whether it directly or indirectly affects house prices no one will ever know, but it needs said since it's the only way we can cure the overpowering all encompassing destructive obsession.

Do you think it's possible that protests could be counter productive?

See where you're coming from but people think this already with massive PR departments devoted to promoting exactly this sort of thinking, so stable door open, horse far off. What's needed is balance to the reporting and media message, balance sadly lacking needing someone to fill the void...

Edited by DoubleBubbleTrouble

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Will protesting about the price of oil help to bring the price down?

You can't protest against a market.

Well, you can, it just won't do any good.

Perhaps protest that all house prices should be halved, frozen and rise in line with inflation. i.e. remove the market. Then we could stop decorating kitchens and start building ships again.

That would be popular! :lol:

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How about a national 'dont pay your rent for a year' protest ?

Send as many BTL's bankrupt as possibe and cause a HPC

Yipee!

Edited by Flick

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How about a national 'dont pay your rent for a year' protest ?

Send as many BTL's bankrupt as possibe and cause a HPC

Yipee!

Now that really IS worth doing :)

Anarchy! :ph34r:

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Will protesting about the price of oil help to bring the price down?

You can't protest against a market.

Well, you can, it just won't do any good.

Perhaps protest that all house prices should be halved, frozen and rise in line with inflation. i.e. remove the market. Then we could stop decorating kitchens and start building ships again.

That would be popular! :lol:

You're so far off missing the point .... I'm almost speechless.

First. Who said anything about protesting about the price of housing? The question posed on this thread is 'could protests result in house price cuts'. Let's elaborate - 'could protesting about BTL investors pricing a generation out of home ownership (with the attendant fall in birth rate) with the outcome of an increase in the way BTL is taxed .... result in house price cuts'

A child of five would realise that protesting about the price of 70% of the country's only real asset is not going to get a warm reception.

The oil analogy might be a good one. But let's make it a bit more real by adding in the twist of another raft of investors - like the housing market. And, we don't have to speculate about the results because we have all seen them.

Normally there is a nice simple oil market. BP and Shell get it out of the ground, refine it and sell it on an open, wholesale market (with a sodding great cartel called OPEC involved by the way).

But let's see what happens at the level of selling the oil to consumers. What happens when supply is constricted at the consumer end? Like the property market. Think back to the lorry driver's protests a while ago. My local garage had a queue half a mile down the road. But they put a sign out in the street that said 'Account customers only'. In my analogy the account customers are the BTLetters. They are in a privileged position when it comes to obtaining something that is in short supply. They are pricing out the other customers by hogging the supply. The result? It didn't take long for the fist fights to start and the police had to be called to cool the situation. The copper told the owner 'if you don't want a riot, you better start selling on a first-come, first-served basis'

This site is getting fcuked by certain whingers, yes.

Yeah maybe

Because people already care about pensioners.

And because the law has loop holes you could run a combine harvester through.

No, the 100K troops kept in Iraq has stalled our glorious entry into Iran.

A fine example of protest. One guy ended up with a piece of scaffolding through him. And it wasn't that bad a tax.

Bloody hippies.

Trident is about to get a refurb for crying out loud!!!

The market will out. Regardless of how much you whinge on here about our lack of protesting.

Can't be bothered to reply to your point. You're wrong on most of them.

You said 'the market will out'.

I hope for your sake it does. Because if it doesn't 'the market will out' you - forever. Still, something will turn up. Things can only get better. Things are bound to go back to where they were.

Just out of curiousity... I wonder if you can describe the precise scenario where house prices fall to a level that FTBs can buy a home:

without a huge mortgage millstone ....

without a damaging recession that will put lots of people out of work and keep wages down

without rises in interest rates

without BTLetters still buying in ahead of you even in a falling market as they know it will turn around. In the last crash people still bought on the way down always convinced the crash was over.

So, to sum up. How exactly will the market crash in such a way that it benefits you but does not benefit investors?

(And it might be worth bearing in mind that my landlord could watch the house I rent halve in value and not give a fig. He bought it 9 years ago and earns a nice income from it.)

I think accusing me of whinging is a bit rich, Rich. After all, this whole site is one long whinge.

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Protests, demonstrations (and Riots maybe).

This is fantasy stuff and the product of a deranged and fevered imagination if you want my honest opinion.

Are we talking about expropriation as the ultimate goal? Where, or perhaps how, the hell do you think or imagine this proposal would work, outside Mugabe’s, Zimbabwe, that is? Or perhaps you imagine the fate that befell the Kulaks in Stalin’s Russia was somehow merited because the Kulaks’ “class” interests allied them with the enemies of the Soviet state? Actually, it’s not a crime (so far as I know) to own property in this country and to do with it as you see fit, provided you act within the confines of the law. Mugabe uses food as a political weapon in Matabeleland (targeting six million people) and Stalin’s excesses were only eclipsed by Mao, possibly exceeding those of Hitler?

So, who exactly do you think your average BTL landlord is exactly and how many properties do you think that he, or perhaps she, actually owns? Very few, I expect?

It harks back to the Poll tax riots, if you ask me – all pretty much pointless and futile; but what do I know?

HTH

KF

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Will protesting about the price of oil help to bring the price down?

You can't protest against a market.

Well, you can, it just won't do any good.

You're right, protesting about the price in a market is bonkers.

However, protesting about the reglatory climate of that market is not at all bonkers.

The state of the UK housing market is a result of government policy, not just the current government but several governments over decades.

"More homes and sensible loans" would be the protest chant. i.e.

-- planning law should be liberalised.

-- mortgage lending should be *more* regulated.

unfortunately the second point is lost on most people, who think it is in FTBs' interests for there to be ever more exotic loans available. But, the first point is easily understood by everyone, and I think politicians can become very exposed if they oppose housing developments.

frugalista

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You're right, protesting about the price in a market is bonkers.

However, protesting about the reglatory climate of that market is not at all bonkers.

The state of the UK housing market is a result of government policy, not just the current government but several governments over decades.

"More homes and sensible loans" would be the protest chant. i.e.

-- planning law should be liberalised.

-- mortgage lending should be *more* regulated.

unfortunately the second point is lost on most people, who think it is in FTBs' interests for there to be ever more exotic loans available. But, the first point is easily understood by everyone, and I think politicians can become very exposed if they oppose housing developments.

frugalista

http://www.mjdazeley.com/ODPM_581.html

The market will out...????

of course it would.... It always does..

up and down..

thats what the market will do..

we don't like it when it goes up... Investors don't like it when it goes down..

It does both.. and to pretend otherwise means you don't understand what a pound is beyond the fact that it is 100 pence :)

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It harks back to the Poll tax riots, if you ask me – all pretty much pointless and futile; but what do I know?

Errr seems you don't know much.... didn't the poll tax riots end up with the poll tax being abolished!!!!! How exactly did they turn out to be futile????

Can I just chip in my little bit too, individual protests themselves may not accomplish much other than to highlight the problem, but a coordinated campaign backing the interest of home buyers facing record prices can exert some much needed political pressure against the CPRE's and "big property" financial interest's of this world who are over-represented politically.

Edited by HousePriceLottery

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You said 'the market will out'.

I hope for your sake it does. Because if it doesn't 'the market will out' you - forever.

I come here to keep tabs on things. At first I learnt a lot, now it's case of waiting and seeing. Some people like a whinge just as you do, but for many coming on here is a chance to have a chat and watch it unravel.

Now, here's the key thing. I won't be priced out as in the long run BTLs won't be able to buy all housing in the UK, the rental market won't be able to sustain it. We've already reached the limit for BTL in the UK - many newcomers are subsidising their tenants.

As I've argued in print, the obsession with property is already damaging this country, both economically and demographically. The real consequence of this will be to fundamentally impoverish this country, particularly people who think that their home is their pension. We'll run out of credit to keep the bubble inflated, and it will collapse.

This won't effect me, I don't retire for 40 years. It affects your generation though Marina. I might have the chance to buy up a cheaper home, and save up for the future. Your lot are screwed. Yes, it's so serious that bold type is necessary. Essentially all they've done over the past few years is MEW and spend. There's been little investment in decent UK industries, and no great improvement in productivity. Even if the market doesn't crash boomers are screwed as there's going to be less and less productive workers, which means their pensions will be worth jack.

That's why there's no point writing to MPs or demanding a law change. A huge swathe of UK plc thinks that i) HPI is great, ii) we have a great economy, and iii) the future is rosy. The housing boom is tied up with a lot of huge problems that are developing in the future, that few people really want to acknowledge. Boomers aren't all evil, just naive and complacent. If we say "a HPC is coming", then we're doommongers and pessimists, yet that's only half the "gloom" on the horizon.

When the market starts to dip credit will dry up, spending will decrease, and people will see the emperor is wearing no clothes. The tenancy laws and planning systems (which are being re-examined anyway) won't matter a jot when the economy is in recession and banks are unwilling to lend any money. "Investors" will be getting flayed alive and will hogg the headlines for years. I reckon we'll need no more than .75% extra on IRs for it to kick off, maybe even less.

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That's true. There is very little money for the poor man to campaign against the rich man. What sort of protest would work? Does it matter?

The beauty of the media is you don't always need a lot of money to make an impact (although obviously it helps)... all you need is a good story.

The injustice of unaffordable house prices has enough personal and economic stories to keep them going for a long time. All we need is their attention. The way to get their attention is to group together and get organised.

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Guest muttley

I come here to keep tabs on things. At first I learnt a lot, now it's case of waiting and seeing. Some people like a whinge just as you do, but for many coming on here is a chance to have a chat and watch it unravel.

Now, here's the key thing. I won't be priced out as in the long run BTLs won't be able to buy all housing in the UK, the rental market won't be able to sustain it. We've already reached the limit for BTL in the UK - many newcomers are subsidising their tenants.

As I've argued in print, the obsession with property is already damaging this country, both economically and demographically. The real consequence of this will be to fundamentally impoverish this country, particularly people who think that their home is their pension. We'll run out of credit to keep the bubble inflated, and it will collapse.

This won't effect me, I don't retire for 40 years. It affects your generation though Marina. I might have the chance to buy up a cheaper home, and save up for the future. Your lot are screwed. Yes, it's so serious that bold type is necessary. Essentially all they've done over the past few years is MEW and spend. There's been little investment in decent UK industries, and no great improvement in productivity. Even if the market doesn't crash boomers are screwed as there's going to be less and less productive workers, which means their pensions will be worth jack.

That's why there's no point writing to MPs or demanding a law change. A huge swathe of UK plc thinks that i) HPI is great, ii) we have a great economy, and iii) the future is rosy. The housing boom is tied up with a lot of huge problems that are developing in the future, that few people really want to acknowledge. Boomers aren't all evil, just naive and complacent. If we say "a HPC is coming", then we're doommongers and pessimists, yet that's only half the "gloom" on the horizon.

When the market starts to dip credit will dry up, spending will decrease, and people will see the emperor is wearing no clothes. The tenancy laws and planning systems (which are being re-examined anyway) won't matter a jot when the economy is in recession and banks are unwilling to lend any money. "Investors" will be getting flayed alive and will hogg the headlines for years. I reckon we'll need no more than .75% extra on IRs for it to kick off, maybe even less.

Top quality post, RichM.

HPC is a discussion forum, not a movement. If you want to start a movement you will need the backing of the vast majority of the general public.

We can put forward our arguments, but in the end we can't beat the market. Most people reach retirement age with LESS than 12k savings, so the 100k equity on their house is pretty important.

If you take to the streets you will quickly be portrayed as bitter fools by the bolsheviks

Be happy being a contrarian. :)

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A protest of genuine value needs to, in it's heart, have a true desire to stop this madness ever happening again.

To protect the future, as well as correct the present, with damage limitation to those already innocently over committed.

And despite some great debates, that's why nothing will ever come of it on the HPC forum.

It's not about engineering a crash.

Get over to Pricedout, where a protest date will soon be announced.

.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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