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George Mainwaring

Halifax Report 1.2% Fall In June

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Benjamin - LOL

enworb - talk about grasping at straws - every year we have some major sporting event be it football, cricket, rugby, the Olympics, and every season we have FA Cup finals, European Cup finals, etc., To suggest a 1.2% drop is due to football fans who won't risk moving in case they miss a match (which they would probably watch in a pub anyway) beggars belief. And we are talking sales not viewings.

Lets see what happens over the next few months shall we.

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Is this the only website in the UK that doesn't realise/admit that the world cup makes a big dent in potential viewings :huh:

I don't usually make excuses for dips in the market but you've missed such a glaringly obvious reason I had to.

You need to think outside the box and not just believe all you are told.

A couple of sat afternoon games in June is not going to be represented in Halifax June figures.

Do games starting on sat afternoon at 4pm stop people viewing houses?

Come on, wake up and smell the coffeee

This is nothing to get excited about. Halifax's yoy figure is overstated at around 9%, when the other indexes are around 5%. This is just a correction for earlier statistical errors.

it's not overstated.

they lend more in NI, Scotland and northern counties which have been more positive than the south

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Are the Halifax figures not based on completions during June?

If this is the case then any fall in the index during June must be due to falls in prices agreed back in May relative to those agreed during April.

Events during June (e.g. World Cup) could delay completions, lead buyers to withdraw from purchases, or contribute to small changes in the agreed price as survey results come in.

But on the whole - surely it is events in May (relative to April) that must be responsible for the apparent fall?

Edited by bob2

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You need to think outside the box and not just believe all you are told.

A couple of sat afternoon games in June is not going to be represented in Halifax June figures.

Do games starting on sat afternoon at 4pm stop people viewing houses?

Come on, wake up and smell the coffeee

well, I spent a not insignificant portion of my deposit on a couple of weeks in Germany. Mind you, I wasn't going to waste that on an over-valued house even if I was a football-hating homeboy.

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If the Bulls want to believe that the football is the cause of the fall, I can't wait until we have the Ryder Cup in September, and the Ashes throughout November - January!

I reckon I can comfortably predict the following:

July prices - negative HPI (dont worry only because Wimbledon is on)

August - negative HPI (chill - they'll start flying again next month it's just becuase the Football is back)

September - negative HPI (now's the time to get into loads more BTL's - look at the value in that 200k 1 bed shit tip) (Ryder Cup)

November - December - negative HPI - it's the cricket you see, but I've got a lovely off plan tree house for 400k I've got my eye on.....

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Based on the BBC chart of Halifax vs Nationwide, the Halifax index still needs to fall back some more to bring it inline.

Halifax lends more in the north, Scotland and NI where HPI has even been as high as 25% (NI)

so the figures will not be the same as Nationwide.

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If the Bulls want to believe that the football is the cause of the fall, I can't wait until we have the Ryder Cup in September, and the Ashes throughout November - January!

I reckon I can comfortably predict the following:

July prices - negative HPI (dont worry only because Wimbledon is on)

August - negative HPI (chill - they'll start flying again next month it's just becuase the Football is back)

September - negative HPI (now's the time to get into loads more BTL's - look at the value in that 200k 1 bed shit tip) (Ryder Cup)

November - December - negative HPI - it's the cricket you see, but I've got a lovely off plan tree house for 400k I've got my eye on.....

You have got the Six Nations in the spring so that will cause a dip as well....

But seriously, if there has been a dip because of the football what will the figures be like in August? Surely they will drop even further?

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Halifax lends more in the north, Scotland and NI where HPI has even been as high as 25% (NI)

so the figures will not be the same as Nationwide.

But they have been very closely tracking from March 2005 until March 2006 (and even the same between June 2005 to August 2005 - this time last year). However, they have only started to diverge a lot since April 2006.

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Is this the only website in the UK that doesn't realise/admit that the world cup makes a big dent in potential viewings :huh:

I should think it is pretty well the only website sad enough to have even considered this arcane question.

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I should think it is pretty well the only website sad enough to have even considered this arcane question.

Since when has questioning what you are force fed by the media been sad?

Quite the opposite, it is the view of believing everything you are told without question that is sad. Unfortunately now the attitude prevalent in Bristish society.

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Guest Bart of Darkness

top monthly halifax falls...

1992Sep -3.031% the last bust

2002Dec -2.245% ...?

1993May -1.653% the last bust

1993Jun -1.282% the last bust

2006Jun -1.241% the next bust ? the world cup ? ... ?

1992Apr -1.201% the last bust

2000Oct -1.199% ...?

1994May -1.168% the last bust

1992Feb -0.854% the last bust

1992Mar -0.808% the last bust

If the World Cup theory is correct wouldn't you expect to see mid-2002 and 1998 in the above list? (December 2002 is a bit late in the year to be considered a WC related blip.)

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Try not to get too excited - this follows increases of 1.5pc in March, 1.1 per cent in April, and 2pc in May. And YoY, we're still 9.4pc up (or more than 10pc if you're lucky enough to live in London) :)

Since when has questioning what you are force fed by the media been sad?

Yes, I get the picture - you and you alone can see the truth. It is probably all a conspiracy, or something :rolleyes:

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DONT GET SUCKERED INTO THIS.

its a slight of hand. post some hpi fall news to add credibility.

the lending company figures are nonsence.

around here prices have been falling SHARPLY for almost a year and a half. up to 30%. many just cant sell at all. all this talk of .5% this and YOY 1,.2% that is utter crap and they are simply trying to get you to sign up to it, good then more bad. either eay. beleive nothing from these figures. look around you instead.

its like the bbc playing property programs from over 2 years ago.

its all a huge vested sheen. papers. bbc. government. councils. lenders.

its the carrot on the stick thats too long a stick and too small a carrot.

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Try not to get too excited - this follows increases of 1.5pc in March, 1.1 per cent in April, and 2pc in May. And YoY, we're still 9.4pc up (or more than 10pc if you're lucky enough to live in London) :)

But it is exactly because it follows on from these rises that makes it significant. And as previous post have shown it's the 5th largest monthly fall ever reported by Halifax.

Such a large fall after recent gains would add strength to the argument that the bounce this year has indeed been a suckers rally and the turning point has perhaps finally been reached. With all the suckers now in the market who's left to keep it propped up?

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Since when has questioning what you are force fed by the media been sad?

Quite the opposite, it is the view of believing everything you are told without question that is sad. Unfortunately now the attitude prevalent in Bristish society.

Well the plot thickens!

Football supports obviously mostly buy new houses!

I have had a look at the figures in detail, unfortunately Halifax only reports regional prices quarterly so we can not prove or disprove the assumption that for instance east anglia has been falling a lot while northern ireland etc. has been pushing up the average.

But the monthly figures are broken up into New, Existing, Former Owener Occupier and First Time Buyer.

FOO, FTB and Existing have all fallen by arround 0.5% from May to June.

New houses on the other hand have fallen by significantly more! 2.9% to be exact!!!

Apr 2006 500.6 7.2 174,200

May 2006 507.8 10.6 176,701

Jun 2006 493.1 8.4 171,572

I don't really believe footballers are the biggest buyers of new houses, I suspect people using property as an investment might be though.

Or perhaps this really a sign that regions that have the most new houses built have had significant falls?

Does anybody have the number of new houses region by region data?

Is this as expected or a significant indicator of something?

Edited by onrollover

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Try not to get too excited - this follows increases of 1.5pc in March, 1.1 per cent in April, and 2pc in May.

Actually, to come back to the point.

You are saying that HPI going from +2% in May to -1.2% in June is not significant!?

I'd say turning points don't come clearer than that!

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Before everyone gets too carried away, how much do people think prices can realistically go down to? I have seen people on here quote figures such as 50% but do you really think they are going to go back to 2000 levels?

Even if prices do go down, what is going to force people to suddenly want to sell? Of course you will have the people who are currently living on a knife edge who will have no choice, but most people I know have lots of equity in their properties as they bought years ago. These people are definitely not going to want to sell just because prices are going down.

There seems to be a lot of people waiting for prices to go down so when they do surely all these people are going to buy and push prices back up again?

Put it this way, if prices do halve I am going to be buying up everything I can get my hands on and I suspect so will everybody else I know.

Luckily I bought in 2000 and it basically means prices have stayed static for me. We have just sold and had an offer accepted on another (bigger) house. After you take out the equity I now have in my current property due to HPI, my mortgage will be (roughly) the same size as if I had bought the bigger house in 2000.

Personally I want house prices to be as cheap as possible so I can buy an even bigger house.

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Guest The_Oldie

Put it this way, if prices do halve I am going to be buying up everything I can get my hands on and I suspect so will everybody else I know.

A lot of people did that with dotcom shares when they halved in value in 2000 and lost their shirts when they halved again <_<.

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Put it this way, if prices do halve I am going to be buying up everything I can get my hands on and I suspect so will everybody else I know.

what about other people, why cant you just be happy and buy a nice big house.

why do want everything you can get your hands on.... ?

this is why we need a yearly tax on people that own more than 2 houses. teach the greedy pigs a lesson.

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  • 315 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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