Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
Lionel Richtea

Finance Adecdotal

Recommended Posts

Positive anecdotal in the short term, I'm afraid.

Apparently, UBS have taken on 200 summer interns, their most ever. Similar story in other banks in the City, I hear. There were precisely zero interns taken on in recent summers.

However, the last time this happened was 1999 / 2000... so not such a good sign in the long run (irrational exuberance, anyone?)

Keep an eye on Merrill Lynch - the first to hire, the first to fire.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Is that just due to the declining standards of education? Got to give 200 a chance so they can rely on getting 10 gooduns?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Positive anecdotal in the short term, I'm afraid.

Apparently, UBS have taken on 200 summer interns, their most ever. Similar story in other banks in the City, I hear. There were precisely zero interns taken on in recent summers.

However, the last time this happened was 1999 / 2000... so not such a good sign in the long run (irrational exuberance, anyone?)

Keep an eye on Merrill Lynch - the first to hire, the first to fire.

Well if you think about it: who benefiits the most from the current situation...that's right the banks. No surprise then they have made record profits and are taking on lots of staff. I imagine there is a lag between them actually making the profits and taking on new staff, so you may be right that this is a sign of the top?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well if you think about it: who benefiits the most from the current situation...that's right the banks. No surprise then they have made record profits and are taking on lots of staff. I imagine there is a lag between them actually making the profits and taking on new staff, so you may be right that this is a sign of the top?

This is investment banking rather than commercial (ie high street) banking, inrelated to housing etc. They're normally the canaries in the cage of the economy: highly geared to the equity markets and to the sentiment of a small number of corporate clients.

BTW "I'm afraid" because the anecdote goes against the nap of the forum and isn't really what I think people want to hear.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Interns are good for:

i) Cheap labour

ii) Bolstering the junior office manager's ego

iii) Fudging the employee diversity figures

iv) Blowing Bill Clinton

I'd be surprised if you ahve scooped the FT on this one

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I suspect this is due to the real shortage of operations staff on the market at the moment - cheap labour!

Not the case. There's a big shortage of junior bankers at the moment: one junior performed the mother of all flips by taking a loyalty payment from one bank then heading off for a sign on payment at another before HR could lock him in. All in all, pocketed ~60k. Not bad when you're 24. The whole thing smells similar to 1999 to me... and we all know what happened then, the FT notwithstanding

re: btp comment. Interns are indeed a waste of space, even the chubby ones who put out.

Lionel R

PS nope - me no WAL.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The whole thing smells similar to 1999 to me... and we all know what happened then, the FT notwithstanding

Or perhaps similar to 1989?

There was a flurry of M&A activity at the peak of the last housing cycle as well.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Apparently, UBS have taken on 200 summer interns, their most ever. Similar story in other banks in the City, I hear. There were precisely zero interns taken on in recent summers.

Where did you get your information that there were precisely zero interns taken on in recent summers? Is your source speaking about a particular department only?

Counting UBS as a whole (across all divisions), there have been interns taken on every year from 2001-2005. It's correct that there are more this year than in previous years, though. I used to work for them (albeit not as an intern), and I interviewed a few candidates.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Where did you get your information that there were precisely zero interns taken on in recent summers? Is your source speaking about a particular department only?

Counting UBS as a whole (across all divisions), there have been interns taken on every year from 2001-2005. It's correct that there are more this year than in previous years, though. I used to work for them (albeit not as an intern), and I interviewed a few candidates.

Zero refers to my bank with 100% confidence and certain others with ~90% confidence (NB I don't work for UBS).

This year there was a move to force me to take on the boss' son... the guy has no shame.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Zero refers to my bank with 100% confidence and certain others with ~90% confidence (NB I don't work for UBS).

This year there was a move to force me to take on the boss' son... the guy has no shame.

OK, fair enough. I just wanted to clarify that at UBS, interns had been taken on every year even 2001-2002 when things were grim.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I would say by the amount of hiring the top tier banks are doing that things are pretty rosy in investment bank land right now. in the last 6 months ALL of the talented people in my team have quit (including me) to move into investment banks offering them 15-30% more money. my former employer is of course falling over themselves to hire anyone with skills. but the fact is the market has moved (unlike the housing market) and its going to cost them dear. prepare to real about the "second round effects" soon. when I started looking in early May my agent was like ok look normally I have 10 or so jobs on my books today I have 75 or so mostly willing to pay top dollar you could interview everyday for the next month if you wanted too.... needless to say one a few people pick up on it everyone else starts to catch on an before you know it you have a rout on your hands.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I would say by the amount of hiring the top tier banks are doing that things are pretty rosy in investment bank land right now. in the last 6 months ALL of the talented people in my team have quit (including me) to move into investment banks offering them 15-30% more money. my former employer is of course falling over themselves to hire anyone with skills. but the fact is the market has moved (unlike the housing market) and its going to cost them dear. prepare to real about the "second round effects" soon. when I started looking in early May my agent was like ok look normally I have 10 or so jobs on my books today I have 75 or so mostly willing to pay top dollar you could interview everyday for the next month if you wanted too.... needless to say one a few people pick up on it everyone else starts to catch on an before you know it you have a rout on your hands.

I've spent the last week interviewing candidates for associate level positions. The talent pool is p1ss weak at the moment and anyone with an ounce of talent or experience stands out a mile. Looks like your timing has been good, jonpo: the best way to get ahead in IBanking is to move at the right time. Those bankers who survived the 01-03 nuclear winter are in a good position to make hay and have been for 18 month or so... until it all goes pear shaped again.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

my mates in iBanking are all saying its looking good right now jobswise as well, and the recruitment guys have smiles on their faces too.

which makes me think that we're nowhere near a "crash" cycle, city recruitment is up across the board isn't it? Both in direct financial services and across associated law, accountancy, mgty consultancy and comm.property despite (cliche coming up) what the doomsayers would have us believe. I seem to get rung up by headhunters almost daily.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

my mates in iBanking are all saying its looking good right now jobswise as well, and the recruitment guys have smiles on their faces too.

which makes me think that we're nowhere near a "crash" cycle, city recruitment is up across the board isn't it? Both in direct financial services and across associated law, accountancy, mgty consultancy and comm.property despite (cliche coming up) what the doomsayers would have us believe. I seem to get rung up by headhunters almost daily.

It's precisely for this reason that I am nervous. When the monkeys I am seeing are actually getting referred and being put in front of a grown up I Bank via headhunters, then the labour market is definitely tight and I start to smell bubble. We're getting associate candidates that I wouldn't trust to pick up the coffee: the headhunters are getting a huge serve from us for wasting our time, but despite this the MDs have gone back to the 1999 attitude of expanding the team to the today's rather than tomorrow's level of business.

Then again, I was swanning around estate agents in Q1 04 telling them that house prices were crashing and putting in low ball offers, so what do I know? Also, I leave Babylon in a week so care factor is low despite holding a lot of Bank scrip.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It definitely smells of 1999-2000 when juniors where leaving for high tech companies/VCs (now read: hedge funds) and it was difficult to attract and retain talent even for the top firms.

Then equity markets tank -> M&A deals dry out -> mass redundancies (2001-2002).

Investment Banks are slaves to headcount ratios, it just requires a small decrease in revenues to incur a forced decrease in headcount, both by hiring less and getting rid of the lesser performers. Zero bonus anyone?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.