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sam

Tone It Down Realisticbear

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With all due respect, i wish RealisticBear would tone it down a little, i have just been looking at his latest posts(and i do like many of them) and again you would be forgiven for thinking that the property crash was now happening, like it was one week ago, one month ago, and one year ago.

YES there are many dangers out there for this tightrope economy, but it is just false to say that we are now entering a crash(but possible). Just like today i was amazed at the debt and risks people are taking one year ago, but as risky as it is the fact remains that Nationwide yet again showed yet another rise in HPI.

Some people are desperate RB, i just think it a little cruel that you build their hopes up nearly every other day, i am on your side, but there is every chance we might have to wait years for affordable housing.

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With all due respect, i wish RealisticBear would tone it down a little, i have just been looking at his latest posts(and i do like many of them) and again you would be forgiven for thinking that the property crash was now happening, like it was one week ago, one month ago, and one year ago.

YES there are many dangers out there for this tightrope economy, but it is just false to say that we are now entering a crash(but possible). Just like today i was amazed at the debt and risks people are taking one year ago, but as risky as it is the fact remains that Nationwide yet again showed yet another rise in HPI.

Some people are desperate RB, i just think it a little cruel that you build their hopes up nearly every other day, i am on your side, but there is every chance we might have to wait years for affordable housing.

???

Most things RB post are reports from reputable financial media sources,

Perhaps you'd be better asking Bank of Japan to "Tone Down" the impending financial Tsunami that heading this way once they start to raise IRs, expected in a couple of weeks? :D

Or ask the BBC to "Tone Down" their constant VI drivel, or The Daily 'houseprices have trebled in last hour' Express

Edited by jp1

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What is this constant knock Realistbear theme on the site now? Has there been an influx of Estate Agents???

Why don't you mind your own ******* business and let RB post what he likes? If you cannot see that RB is bear through & through, you should not be allowed to cross the road on your own.

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What is this constant knock Realistbear theme on the site now? Has there been an influx of Estate Agents???

Why don't you mind your own ******* business and let RB post what he likes? If you cannot see that RB is bear through & through, you should not be allowed to cross the road on your own.

What a moronic reply, and why don't i NOT mind my own ******* business and let RB post what he likes(which i want him to do anyway, [expletives removed by moderator].

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What is this constant knock Realistbear theme on the site now? Has there been an influx of Estate Agents???

Why don't you mind your own ******* business and let RB post what he likes? If you cannot see that RB is bear through & through, you should not be allowed to cross the road on your own.

A lot of the HPCers have gone Global.

To his credit, Realistbear is happy to contribute to both forums, though it looks like his peers have said adios.

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With all due respect, i wish RealisticBear would tone it down a little, i have just been looking at his latest posts(and i do like many of them) and again you would be forgiven for thinking that the property crash was now happening, like it was one week ago, one month ago, and one year ago.

YES there are many dangers out there for this tightrope economy, but it is just false to say that we are now entering a crash(but possible). Just like today i was amazed at the debt and risks people are taking one year ago, but as risky as it is the fact remains that Nationwide yet again showed yet another rise in HPI.

Some people are desperate RB, i just think it a little cruel that you build their hopes up nearly every other day, i am on your side, but there is every chance we might have to wait years for affordable housing.

The next 2 sets of Land Registry figures will be interesting pointers of the way things are going.

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Just like the rest of us RB is trying to form, or manipulate, opinions. I do the same and so do others. While I dont agree with all of his posts I do respect his right to post here providing it's at a reasonable frequency and with new information.

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The next 2 sets of Land Registry figures will be interesting pointers of the way things are going.

It's clear that RB is trying to match the VI spin, and I'm assuming that he is being ironic in his approach.

But I do think it's a bit unhelpful to suggest, as he does, that the crash has started, particularly by posting quarterly falls from the ODPM stats. These are often based on very small turnover and can't be factored up by a factor of 4 to suggest that an annual 30% fall has started!

Anyone desperate for good news will latch onto these posts, unfortunately, and will be sorely disappointed when they try to buy a house.

Just like the rest of us RB is trying to form, or manipulate, opinions. I do the same and so do others. While I dont agree with all of his posts I do respect his right to post here providing it's at a reasonable frequency and with new information.

To be fair, I don't think Sam was suggesting that RB stopped posting, just that he toned it down a bit.

I can't understand why Sam has been pilloried for her OP, it seemed reasonable to me!

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But I do think it's a bit unhelpful to suggest, as he does, that the crash has started, particularly by posting quarterly falls from the ODPM stats. These are often based on very small turnover and can't be factored up by a factor of 4 to suggest that an annual 30% fall has started!

Admittedly these stats are based on low turnover, but they are not ODPM stats but Land Registry sold-price figures, and the annual figures are not simply the quarterly figures multiplied by 4, but the Land Reg YoY figures

The figures RB posts are definitve, they are not open to revision, or represent different stages of the cycle, or asking prices, or buyer enquiries, or surveyors 'confidence', or approvals, but actual prices paid for properties. Period

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The figures RB posts are definitve, they are not open to revision, or represent different stages of the cycle, or asking prices, or buyer enquiries, or surveyors 'confidence', or approvals, but actual prices paid for properties. Period

But not necessarily houses of identical worth, which is why it's data, not information.

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But not necessarily houses of identical worth, which is why it's data, not information.

sure - but it's fair to say it represents a trend, and the data is definitely definitive

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RB has been predicting so much for so long. He has always been flagging up proof that the world as we know it is going to be turned upside down and going to end. Its what fanatics like RB and ip1 cum over in their sleep.

He, along with ip1 or whatever it calls itself are clearly the sort of impotent geeks you wouldn't want to be seen stood next to. Never mind listen to their endless right wing, abu-hamza esque logic and advice.

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Do define definitely definiative data - I can't even say it! :rolleyes:

My definition of definitely definitive data is: "stuff thats right, init?" :D

I think RB gets his 'definitely definitive data ' from BBC House Prices - it mines the Land Registry database

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Realist bear is very selective in which news stories/data he posts. It's only those that support his bearish narrative about the economy.

His main contention:

1) that interest rates are on the brink of a rapid hike upwards

2) the underlying economy is much weaker than it appears

Nothing wrong with this -- apart from the obvious point is that the two are mutually exclusive!

If the UK economy really does emerge as the basket case he suggests it is, then the MPC won't be raising rates, they will be lowering them.

What's actually happening is that both the UK and world economy is in more robust health than anyone could have predicted when oil prices started shooting up a few years ago, which is a good thing since it makes interest rate rises more likely.

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Realist bear is very selective in which news stories/data he posts. It's only those that support his bearish narrative about the economy.

His main contention:

1) that interest rates are on the brink of a rapid hike upwards

2) the underlying economy is much weaker than it appears

Nothing wrong with this -- apart from the obvious point is that the two are mutually exclusive!

If the UK economy really does emerge as the basket case he suggests it is, then the MPC won't be raising rates, they will be lowering them.

What's actually happening is that both the UK and world economy is in more robust health than anyone could have predicted when oil prices started shooting up a few years ago, which is a good thing since it makes interest rate rises more likely.

OK you show me some recent news that says the trend for IRs is down [you cant include BBC's latest rent-a-gob 'economist' Howard Archer - he doesnt count :D ]

I think you may find that the 'robust heath' that the world economy is currently displaying is actually the outward signs of inflation.

Inflation is like a drug to economies, it always feels good at the beginning.

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ip1, your replies do not have any backing of any sort, they are just as speculative as RB's. Surely you must have siphoned the last few drops out from RB's hole. You can stop now. you really can.

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RealistBear, keep posting.

Only thing I would say is that list of yours of areas that have shown falls is irritating when you post it all the time - I suggest you shorten it by removing all the insignificant drops e.g. Price drops of 0.3%. The length of your list gives the impression prices are falling all over the place but about a lot of the falls are so small they really don't mean much.

Then again, I would expect people to have the brains to notice that for themselves.

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ip1, your replies do not have any backing of any sort, they are just as speculative as RB's. Surely you must have siphoned the last few drops out from RB's hole. You can stop now. you really can.

RB posts from mainstream sources, you class Reuters, Money Week, The Economist et al as 'spectulative' journalism

Not many properties 'flying off the shelves' today?

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RB posts from mainstream sources, you class Reuters, Money Week, The Economist et al as 'spectulative' journalism

Not many properties 'flying off the shelves' today?

Quick, you missed a few drops in the folds of his starfish. You shouldn't have time to reply!!!!!!

Quick quick!!

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Quick, you missed a few drops in the folds of his starfish. You shouldn't have time to reply!!!!!!

Quick quick!!

go stick your head up the exhast of your mini cooper you stupid EA

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With all due respect, i wish RealisticBear would tone it down a little, i have just been looking at his latest posts(and i do like many of them) and again you would be forgiven for thinking that the property crash was now happening, like it was one week ago, one month ago, and one year ago.

YES there are many dangers out there for this tightrope economy, but it is just false to say that we are now entering a crash(but possible). Just like today i was amazed at the debt and risks people are taking one year ago, but as risky as it is the fact remains that Nationwide yet again showed yet another rise in HPI.

Some people are desperate RB, i just think it a little cruel that you build their hopes up nearly every other day, i am on your side, but there is every chance we might have to wait years for affordable housing.

Please don't act the moderator. One of the great things about blogs is that you can post some 'out there' ideas. I actually think RBs quite a moderate, he only tends to post market reports and press articles.

If the financial news seems bizarre, I venture to suggest that it may be simply because we live non-equilibrium times. RBs posts give us all a taste of the highly charged atmosphere that currently surrounds the world money markets, whilst the global economy adjusts to extreme levels of debt.

I wanna hear more from RB in the same rich vein. :D

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Just like the rest of us RB is trying to form, or manipulate, opinions. I do the same and so do others. While I dont agree with all of his posts I do respect his right to post here providing it's at a reasonable frequency and with new information.

Speak for yourself. What is there to manipulate?

Have you seen the membership? What opinions are there that are worth swaying? Most bulls have still got their noses so far in the trough they haven't even heard of this site.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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