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Realistbear

E C B Meet This Week

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http://uk.biz.yahoo.com//03072006/94/marke...-consensus.html

Monday July 3, 07:53 AM

Market Preview: Stronger eurozone data cast doubt on rate consensus

This week’s interest rate decision by the European Central Bank will be a close call.
The consensus forecast is for rates to remain on hold at 2.75 per cent but David Mackie, economist at JPMorgan, feels the case for a move is compelling because much of the recent
eurozone economic data has proved stronger than expected
.
This week’s purchasing managers’ (PMI) surveys of manufacturing on Monday and services on Wednesday should provide more evidence of a rotation in growth momentum towards Europe from the US. Eurozone
manufacturing activity reached a six-year high
of 57 in the May PMI survey and a further improvement to 57.5 is expected.
A reading above 50 indicates expansion compared with the previous month..
New orders are rising strongly, pointing to future output gains.
However, there is also
clear evidence of inflationary pressures building
in the input and output prices measures, a feature shared by the service sector survey.

2.75% is super-accomodative as the Fed found out. Does the ECB plan on going down the same path by hiking too little too late?

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Guest wrongmove

Well, if you fancy a punt, Betfair are offering over 8/1 on a 0.25% rise, out from less than 5/1 last week.

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Guest wrongmove

I think I will go with the bookies on this one ;)

:)

I have been following Betfair's IR odds for a while, and they have always been accurate predictors so far. The Betfair markets for the Fed, the MPC and the ECB are all liquid, the RBA much less so.

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Well, if you fancy a punt, Betfair are offering over 8/1 on a 0.25% rise, out from less than 5/1 last week.

Wotsit after this news hit:

http://www.iii.co.uk/news/?type=afxnews&am...;action=article

PARIS (AFX) - The euro zone's manufacturing sector expanded at its fastest pace in nearly six years during June, a closely watched indicator of activity found today, according to sources.

:unsure:

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:)

I have been following Betfair's IR odds for a while, and they have always been accurate predictors so far. The Betfair markets for the Fed, the MPC and the ECB are all liquid, the RBA much less so.

good thing at Betfair is that you can lay the bets too. So ideal if you have a strong opinion either way. But the smart money is not necessarily always correct - at least in World Cup football. B)

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good thing at Betfair is that you can lay the bets too. So ideal if you have a strong opinion either way. But the smart money is not necessarily always correct - at least in World Cup football. B)

au contraire mon frere... the smart money is always right, it's just that it only becomes apparent who was smart in hindsight.

he added, facetiously B)

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au contraire mon frere... the smart money is always right, it's just that it only becomes apparent who was smart in hindsight.

he added, facetiously B)

so even the smart money doesn't know it's smart until it's proved right? or one is only smart if one wins? or the smart guys win whatever? I'm confused, I obviously shouldn't be gambling. Except for the times that I've won the bets - that was smart... :huh::blink::unsure:

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so even the smart money doesn't know it's smart until it's proved right? or one is only smart if one wins? or the smart guys win whatever? I'm confused, I obviously shouldn't be gambling. Except for the times that I've won the bets - that was smart... :huh::blink::unsure:

exactly - "one is only smart if one wins"

surely?

one can be smart on occasion, and dumb on others. I'd be surprised if there was a person alive who had continuously been in one category and not the other. I suppose that I'm saying that one should only guage smartness by results, everything else is mere opinion or speculation.

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I suppose that I'm saying that one should only guage smartness by results, everything else is mere opinion or speculation.

You could put a million hamsters in cages above stock market listings and have each of the million different 'hamster funds' buy and sell shares based on where their poop landed each day... most would lose everything, but some would make a lot of money. Would that make them smart?

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You could put a million hamsters in cages above stock market listings and have each of the million different 'hamster funds' buy and sell shares based on where their poop landed each day... most would lose everything, but some would make a lot of money. Would that make them smart?

don't know about hamsters, but I had a smart guinea pig once but he wouldn't share any betting tips with me.

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You could put a million hamsters in cages above stock market listings and have each of the million different 'hamster funds' buy and sell shares based on where their poop landed each day... most would lose everything, but some would make a lot of money. Would that make them smart?

if it was a successful strategy, then it was a smart move. :)

the second smart move would probably be not to try and repeat it.

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  • 302 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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