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Life Doesn't Begin At Fifty For Some First Time Buyers

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The one where Ronnie Corbett lived with his Mum in his forties..

Nearly a quarter of people in their 50s do not own their own home, and are instead renting, or even living with their parents, new research from the Alliance and Leicester has revealed whilst 41% of over 50s cannot afford to buy.

This rises to 45% in London and 58% in the South East, up on last year's data when 33% of the over-50s who were not yet on the property ladder said they wanted to buy somewhere but were unable to.

http://firstrung.co.uk/articles.asp?pageid...&cat=47-0-0

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Yup, my office has those people and I am almost one of them - and in fact has a lot more of the lower generations in the same situation - in fact many of the office of over 100 people can't buy and are renting - some on their own (later years) in studios, others (20s + 30s) in shared rental accommodation. Quite a few 40s and divorced, can't support mortgage and their kids and are living in bedsits to pay for the kids, and a number of others are divorced recently, but have agreed to live with their partners - until they find others - so as to have a roof over their heads AND have dictated to lawyers how to draw the contracts up (although regretably lawyers have charged and arm and leg to draw-up such and agreement).

I enourage everyone to start talking about this in their offices - let's stop hidding this in the middle-england - don't talk about finances pretence.

Time now for everyone to join in talking about this stuff and finding it out - in the same way as we got uunited with Iraq and the latest England hopes in the World Cup.

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Yup, my office has those people and I am almost one of them - and in fact has a lot more of the lower generations in the same situation - in fact many of the office of over 100 people can't buy and are renting - some on their own (later years) in studios, others (20s + 30s) in shared rental accommodation. Quite a few 40s and divorced, can't support mortgage and their kids and are living in bedsits to pay for the kids, and a number of others are divorced recently, but have agreed to live with their partners - until they find others - so as to have a roof over their heads AND have dictated to lawyers how to draw the contracts up (although regretably lawyers have charged and arm and leg to draw-up such and agreement).

I enourage everyone to start talking about this in their offices - let's stop hidding this in the middle-england - don't talk about finances pretence.

Time now for everyone to join in talking about this stuff and finding it out - in the same way as we got uunited with Iraq and the latest England hopes in the World Cup.

Agreed. This is a far more insightful thread than the usual immature rants about the nasty, selfish baby boomer generation, and the factory workers who bought houses out of a week's pay in 1972.

The real VIs, the businessmen who really benefit from rampant HPI, must really love to see the young blaming the old, diverting attention away from themselves.

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Life Doesn't Begin At Fifty For Some First Time Buyers, what was that series called in the 80's - Sorry?

Was that deliberate in your question.

I think the answer is Sorry! (with a ! rather than a ?)

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I'd like to question the newsworthyness of this survey.

Here are figures for the last two decades about housing tenure in England and Wales. All figures are percentages. Source ODPM (or whatever Ruth Kelly's calling it now).

I can't figure out how to format a table in this wretched forum, so you'll need to follow the columns carefully.

OO - owned outright OM - buying with mortgage OA - All

SC- Social Rented Council SH - Social Rented Housing Assn SA- Social Rented All

PU - Private Rented unfurnished PF - Private rented furnished PA - Private Rented All

tenure OO OM OA SC SH SA PU PF PA

1984 26 36 61 26 2 28 8 3 11

1995 25 43 69 18 4 22 7 3 10

2005 31 40 71 11 7 18 9 3 12

And I also found this about age of household and ownership levels (quite old data 1995)

Age of houshold 25-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70-79 Average

% Owner occupied 59.05 70.62 76.30 74.99 66.40 56.92 68.56

Source: Wharton

My conclusions

1. Home ownership shot ahead in the 1980s at the expense of Council housing (the great Council house sell of by Margaret Thatcher.

2. Home ownership looks set to stick at about 70%. This is as high as nearly any other country in the analysis from Wharton.

3. The people most likely to be Owner Occupiers are 40 - 60 age group. Yet 25% don't own their homes.

4. The elderly are more likely to be in social housing, perhaps as historical legacy and perhaps through need.

Summary

There is absolutely nothing remarkable about the finding that "Nearly a quarter of people in their 50s do not own their own home."

How about nearly 40% of 25-29 year olds aren't owner occupiers.

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Thanks Redwing for doing the homework.

Most interesting stat for me is the lack of change in % renting from private landlords.

Who the hell is living in all those BTL properties?

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Guest grumpy-old-man

Thanks Redwing for doing the homework.

Most interesting stat for me is the lack of change in % renting from private landlords.

Who the hell is living in all those BTL properties?

that's probably because the figures for BTL's are vastly under what they really are....

in this society today when a large percentage arn't married, just partners who buy a house each after watching too many tv progs about BTL's....1 to live in & 1 to rent out.

they both get first time buyer rates & nothing declared to the taxman for the rented out property.

I have seen a huge increase in 3 bed terraced & semi's with no chain in the last 6 months. In one local agents window I counted over 40% of the houses with no chain.....almost all 3 bed stuff. Ask around, who don't you know with a BTL rather than who do you know :o

That's how it really is. all IMO of course.

That's what will make this crash far larger & worse than the previous one.

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Thanks Redwing for doing the homework.

Most interesting stat for me is the lack of change in % renting from private landlords.

Who the hell is living in all those BTL properties?

The 2% growth in the last 10 years is significant (just). Remember that the total housing stock has risen too, so some of the growth in BTL will be in there being more units available (hope that makes sense - not brilliantly worded).

The total number of privately rented dwellings goes like this:

1984 - 1,920,000

1995 - 1,939,000

2005 - 2,385,000

In other words that's 446,000 extra between 1995 and 2005.

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Guest grumpy-old-man

The 2% growth in the last 10 years is significant (just). Remember that the total housing stock has risen too, so some of the growth in BTL will be in there being more units available (hope that makes sense - not brilliantly worded).

The total number of privately rented dwellings goes like this:

1984 - 1,920,000

1995 - 1,939,000

2005 - 2,385,000

In other words that's 446,000 extra between 1995 and 2005.

Hi redwing,

take the official BTL stats &, what shall we say, double or triple them ;)

we all know someone with a BTL don't we ?

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Thanks Redwing for doing the homework.

Most interesting stat for me is the lack of change in % renting from private landlords.

Who the hell is living in all those BTL properties?

I wish I could remember where I got this from. But stuck in my head is a news story that the BTL craze is merely a transfer of professional property investors to the amateur. Around 2004 all the professional landlords dumped their portfolios on the market realising the peak. Say they owned 10 of them, they’d sell to 10 individual amateur BTLs (over simplifying the situation). So the amount of rented stock in the market hasn’t changed much.

There was a thread that discussed the two shoulders on the graph on the home page. The first shoulder is the peak followed by a dip where the speculators sold off their portfolios. Then as amateur investors think the market has cooled off they jump in an it peaks again. It is supposedly indicative of an over hyped market that is about to suffer a severe fall. There is an added complication of the interest rate reduction which caused prices to take off again as home buyers could afford immediate monthly payments.

I plotted the graph on the home page using Land Registry data on Friday (and posted on this forum but it seems to have been buried) and the two peaks are evident there also. So it is not just an anomaly with the Nationwide data and is a real effect.

I also remember reading that rents haven't really increased all that much in the last 10 years. That is the best argument against the lack of housing argument. If there was a genuine shortage of housing then we would have seen rents increase at the same rate as house prices have over the last 10 years.

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Hi redwing,

take the official BTL stats &, what shall we say, double or triple them ;)

we all know someone with a BTL don't we ?

I think the official stats are derived from large scale ONS surveys of households and the census.

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Guest grumpy-old-man

I wish I could remember where I got this from. But stuck in my head is a news story that the BTL craze is merely a transfer of professional property investors to the amateur. Around 2004 all the professional landlords dumped their portfolios on the market realising the peak. Say they owned 10 of them, they’d sell to 10 individual amateur BTLs (over simplifying the situation). So the amount of rented stock in the market hasn’t changed much.

There was a thread that discussed the two shoulders on the graph on the home page. The first shoulder is the peak followed by a dip where the speculators sold off their portfolios. Then as amateur investors think the market has cooled off they jump in an it peaks again. It is supposedly indicative of an over hyped market that is about to suffer a severe fall. There is an added complication of the interest rate reduction which caused prices to take off again as home buyers could afford immediate monthly payments.

I plotted the graph on the home page using Land Registry data on Friday (and posted on this forum but it seems to have been buried) and the two peaks are evident there also. So it is not just an anomaly with the Nationwide data and is a real effect.

I also remember reading that rents haven't really increased all that much in the last 10 years. That is the best argument against the lack of housing argument. If there was a genuine shortage of housing then we would have seen rents increase at the same rate as house prices have over the last 10 years.

that makes sense to me & it what I think has happened also, but you have explained it much better than me.

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Guest grumpy-old-man

I think the official stats are derived from large scale ONS surveys of households and the census.

look at the percentage of people now single, marriage is a thing of the past (unfortunatly), therefore when the census stats come through does it tell you that single girl "julie" is living with single bloke "barry".....eerrr, no it doesn't. however they are living together & both own a house. Julie moves in with Barry & they decide to rent the house out through the private adds in there local paper.

now tell me, where exactly do these factors enter into a local government statistic ?

oh ps, I think you do some great work getting stats etc, please do not take my statements the wrong way, but surely they are just to be used as a Rule of Thumb ? :)

here's an example (I like keeping thigs simple):

Julie (again) is walking down the street with her friend "Bev", they get stopped & are asked some questions relating to debt they owe.

Both of them state that they have no bank loans & that their credit cards & store cards have nothing on them. Obviously they don't want each other to know how much they really owe & obviously that new BMW & new conservatory was paid for cash ;):lol:

after 2 months of interviewing "Julies" & "Bevs" the stats are collated & published in a paper/website/government figure etc......

what have we learnt so far ?

the car/house people sell always goes for the full asking price but when they buy they always get a bargain.

PEOPLE LIE & stats are really pretty much useless as they are always munipulated by the interested party

all IMHO of course. you can't beat being a realist, then add some real life experience into the frame & what do you get.......

I've come from the bottom, benn half way up, back down again & back up half way....again. This time I'm just going up.

edited to corretc spelin erorrs :ph34r:

Edited by grumpy-old-man

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Guest grumpy-old-man

I think the official stats are derived from large scale ONS surveys of households and the census.

forgot to add.

obviously there are the LR stats, which are derived from actual sold prices....however, didn't I read somewhere that sometimes we don't see properties that have been sold enter onto the register & some solicitors or government departments hold onto them & release them late ?

this would skew figures a bit wouldn't it & make things a ppear a bit healthier than they are.

oh, hangon a minute, this can't be right as "obviously" that would mean people are lying & withholding information that would damage the governments figures..... & that just simply doesn't happen ;)

Edited by grumpy-old-man

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Hi Grumpy

Good points, but I think you are being just a little bit over-sceptical, nay verging on the paranoid.

I'd trust the Government stats in this case over a survey by the Nationwide (which started this thread).

I've used the ONS stats for planning market segmentation and marketing campaigns. The surveys are based on large samples - in the case of the Census, a very large sample. It's not about asking people if they are BTL landlords, it's more about questioning households, in this case, about their tenure.

Sure, acording to government figures, there are an extra half million private rented homes. Now, I remember reading recently on HPC.co.uk that the average BTLer has 5 properties. My guess is that is the 'mean' figure. OK, there are going to be a few landlords with large portfolios, which would skew the mean above the median or mode. So, there is going to be a lot of small time landlords in on owning the 2,385,000 privately rented properties. So, yes I agree with you that you probably know a few BTLers.

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Hi Grumpy

Good points, but I think you are being just a little bit over-sceptical, nay verging on the paranoid.

I'd trust the Government stats in this case over a survey by the Nationwide (which started this thread).

I've used the ONS stats for planning market segmentation and marketing campaigns. The surveys are based on large samples - in the case of the Census, a very large sample. It's not about asking people if they are BTL landlords, it's more about questioning households, in this case, about their tenure.

Sure, acording to government figures, there are an extra half million private rented homes. Now, I remember reading recently on HPC.co.uk that the average BTLer has 5 properties. My guess is that is the 'mean' figure. OK, there are going to be a few landlords with large portfolios, which would skew the mean above the median or mode. So, there is going to be a lot of small time landlords in on owning the 2,385,000 privately rented properties. So, yes I agree with you that you probably know a few BTLers.

ssshhhh, they might be listening :unsure:

ok, agreed, I have generalised a bit I suppose........& I am also a very sceptical person by nature.

Also, don't get me wrong, I do love reading stats & figures, so keep posting the links as they are very useful.

I am just glad I now have a much clearer understanding of our economy & world economies, property markets & the like.

In the 90's I had no-one around me to explain any of this, the web didn't really arrive until 1995, no msn or bbs's, so all we had was the newspapers & tv, spinning the same old hype. That's why it's surprising to me, that many more people have fallen for the same & even worse situation that is upon us now....amazing!!

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ssshhhh, they might be listening :unsure:

ok, agreed, I have generalised a bit I suppose........& I am also a very sceptical person by nature.

Also, don't get me wrong, I do love reading stats & figures, so keep posting the links as they are very useful.

I am just glad I now have a much clearer understanding of our economy & world economies, property markets & the like.

In the 90's I had no-one around me to explain any of this, the web didn't really arrive until 1995, no msn or bbs's, so all we had was the newspapers & tv, spinning the same old hype. That's why it's surprising to me, that many more people have fallen for the same & even worse situation that is upon us now....amazing!!

Seek and ye shall find.

But, there's a lot of folks with their heads in the sand.

metaphor corner finished

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  • 302 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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